Tag: poll
Joe Biden

In Late March, Both Fundraising And Polling Are Improving For Biden

Last week,The Economist's presidential polling average set in motion a reevaluation of the general election when President Joe Biden pulled ahead of Donald Trump for the first time since September 2023.

To be clear, Biden isn't suddenly the odds-on favorite to win in November, but the fundamentals of the Biden-Trump contest do appear to be shifting in a slightly more favorable direction for Biden.

In the 18 Biden-Trump head-to-head matchups conducted by reputable pollsters (1.8 stars or higher-plus in 538’s pollster ratings) since the March 7 State of the Union address, Trump led in nine surveys, Biden led in seven, and they were even in two. This is a modest improvement from the 18 comparable surveys leading up to Biden's speech. In those surveys, Trump led in 10, Biden in six, and two found the candidates evenly matched.

Better yet, the average of these polls shows Biden improving overall, from 1.1 percentage points underwater before the State of the Union, to 0.8 points underwater afterward—which may seem like a negligible shift but is meaningful where averages are concerned. (Note: None of the polls used here account for how third-party candidates affect the outcome.)

Included in the post-SOTU polling was this month’s Daily Kos/Civiqs survey, which found Biden leading Trump by a single percentage point, 45 percent to 44 percent—a slight uptick from January, when the two were even.

But truth be told, the horse-race polling is among the least of Biden's gains in the contest. The Biden campaign's fundraising in February combined with that of the Democratic National Committee eclipsed the totals of Trump and the RNC.

Filings posted last week showed that the Biden campaign raised $21.3 million in February, while the DNC raised another $16.6 million; the Trump campaign reported raising $10.9 million, while the Republican National Committee raised a similar $10.7 million.

But the more pronounced disparity came in cash reserves available to Biden and the Democrats. Biden and the DNC closed out February with a combined $97.6 million cash on hand—more than doubling the $44.9 million banked by Trump and the RNC.

Democrats’ associated committees boast a cash advantage over Republicans as well:

  • Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has $14 million more money banked than the National Republican Campaign Committee ($59.2 million to $45.2 million).
  • Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has a $7 million cash-on-hand advantage over the National Republican Senatorial Committee ($31.9 million to $24.8 million).

Other underlying fundamentals are also moving in a positive direction for Biden and Democrats. While Republicans led Democrats in 538's generic congressional ballot aggregate throughout most of January, February, and much of March, Democrats have now pulled even with Republicans, at roughly 44.5 percent each.

In Civiqs’ tracking polls, the public opinion of Biden's efforts to create jobs are better than they have ever been, with 42 percent agreeing that he’s doing enough and 48 percent disagreeing.

And while voters' views on the condition of the economy remain well underwater, they are trending in the right direction since falling in the first half of 2022, during the throes of inflation. At net -24 points “good,” the numbers now are on par with how voters viewed the economy in late September 2021.

And voters' estimation of their family finances are the best they've been in roughly two years, since early March 2022.

Current public opinion about the economy and personal finances are double-digits better than they were during the final month of the 2022 midterms, when Democrats turned back the vaunted red wave that historical norms foretold. In fact, voters’ view of the economy is 22 points better now than it was on Election Day 2022.

The data points aren't unrelated. Now that voters are getting more clarity on the choices this cycle, Democratic donors are demonstrating greater enthusiasm for their ticket than are Republican donors. And that cash advantage is giving Democrats more room to advertise and assemble a ground game.

While voters will be settling into their choices later this year, partisans on both sides are already starting to “come home” to their party—which is particularly important to see on the Democratic side since the media had fixated on soft support for Biden as an early narrative.

Civiqs polling from January and March is a perfect example, with Biden bumping his support among Democratic voters by a couple points, from 88 percent to 90 percent. Trump likewise boosted his GOP support from 90 percent to 92 percent.

But what is most fascinating is the shift among independents, who favored Trump by 11 points in January. But this month, Biden cut Trump's lead among independent voters to just a handful of points, 37percent to 42 percent.

Biden's State of the Union remains a rallying point, giving Democratic voters something to cheer and offering a point of reassurance for some disaffected Republicans voters who defected from Trump to Biden in 2020. This week's Focus Group podcast, hosted by Sarah Longwell, featured the reactions of several Trump-to-Biden voters following the State of the Union.

I thought he was energized, chuckling, and that’s one of my biggest complaints about him. You know, not the age so much. It’s just, you know, he’s not, like, an enthusiastic, energized guy. ... You know, he made a couple of jabs at, like, Lindsey Graham, which comes off good in this, like, day and age. ... Sometimes you could tell he was going off script, which is good. He was, you know, flowing improv, which is good. He’s showing he’s competent.

It was the most that I’ve seen him be able to go off script that I can remember—but this, to me, felt like he was going off script. He was showing that he can do it, and he can do it well, which was a pretty good thing. And, I mean, to me, that answers some of the questions that people were having, or have made about him in the last couple of months.

He suffers from having a stutter. So a lot of times he stumbles over words, and it can be a little uncomfortable to listen to him. But I thought he sounded really sharp. He was very strong. He did go off script, but he was handling the hecklers really well.

If there's a takeaway here, it's that letting Joe be Joe—even amid some stumbles—is a better strategy than shielding him from the press and voters. Biden did himself and Democrats a world of good with his feisty State of the Union speech. And the Biden campaign appears to have switched into high gear in the weeks since, visiting every 2024 swing state in less than three weeks and putting the president on full display in a multitude of settings.

The other takeaway is that Republicans are continuing to disintegrate, with Trump's money woes eating away at their ability to compete by the day.

November is still many months away, but Democrats have reason to like the way things are trending as they work to build momentum heading into the August convention.

Reprinted with permission from Daily Kos.

Poll Shows Even Republicans Don't Trust GOP To Protect Social Security

Poll Shows Even Republicans Don't Trust GOP To Protect Social Security

A new survey from Navigator Research doesn’t just show how strongly voters feel about protecting Social Security and Medicare, but it also shows how much voters don’t trust Republican lawmakers to do it. And that’s including a solid majority — 61 percent —of Republicans.

The survey finds that 75 percent of registered voters are either somewhat or very concerned that congressional Republicans “passed a tax plan that gave record-breaking tax breaks to the wealthiest individuals and biggest corporations, but would result in cuts to programs that people count on like Social Security and Medicare.” Supporting tax breaks for the wealthy at the cost of Social Security and Medicare are the most concerning positions of Republicans in Congress on the issue of taxes.

Voters have good reason not to trust the GOP. Right now, House Republicans are plotting yet another fiscal commission that could fast track Social Security and Medicare cuts, in the name of deficit reduction, and they want to include that commission in the 2024 funding package. We’ve seen this ploy from Republicans before, with the Bowles-Simpson commission in 2010 and a congressional “super committee” in 2011. These committees are how Republicans have tried to cut Social Security and Medicare without dirtying their own hands. In this ploy, a committee would be responsible for coming up with the plan, and then Congress would have to pass it in order to save the country from the deficit.

This time around, however, the majority of Democrats aren’t going to play the deficit-peacock game, and they’re calling this plan what it is: “They should probably call this commission the Commission to Slash Benefits,” Rep. John Larson of Connecticut said at a recent press conference. “It’s tantamount to passing a death panel, because that will be the impact on so many Americans.”

Social Security doesn’t have to be cut to be saved. Democrats have legislation to shore up the Social Security trust fund by raising payroll taxes on those making more than $400,000 a year. The cutoff for payroll taxes this year is $168,600. Earnings beyond that aren’t subject to the payroll taxes that fund Social Security's Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance program.

This new commission is “undemocratic” Larson said, because it would all be in the hands of the committee, leaving lawmakers out of the process—just as Republicans want it. “We need hearings out in the open on specific proposals so the public can see what’s going on,” he said.

Judging by the Navigator survey results, the public knows exactly what Republicans have planned, and they don’t like it.

Reprinted with permission from Daily Kos.

Poll: Most Americans Support Teachers Unions Despite Right-Wing Attacks

Poll: Most Americans Support Teachers Unions Despite Right-Wing Attacks

New polling data shows most Americans have favorable views toward teachers’ unions.

According to a survey of 1,000 registered voters released by Navigator Research on August 30, U.S. voters back teachers’ unions by a 30 percent margin, with 55 percent indicating support for the unions and just 25 percent indicating negative attitudes toward them.

The only group the poll showed to view teachers’ unions negatively was Republicans who identify as being “very conservative,” with only 22 percent of that group supporting the unions, compared to 62 percent who said they view them unfavorably.

Meanwhile, the polling data showed 45 percent of both independent voters and Republicans who do not identify as being “very conservative” as having favorable views toward teachers’ unions, with 34 percent and 23 percent indicating unfavorable views, respectively. Some 74 percent of Democrats back teachers’ unions, with just nine percent viewing them negatively.

The survey, which covered voters’ priorities toward education, was conducted online between Augiust 17 and August 21.

Republican political candidates continue to staunchly oppose teachers’ unions.

On the Republican presidential primary debate stage in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, on August 23, South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott called for an end to unions’ influence.

“The only way we change education in this nation is to break the backs of the teachers’ unions,” Scott said. “They are standing in the doorhouse of our kids, locking them in failing schools, and locking them out of the greatest future they can have.”

Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie also called teachers’ unions “the biggest threat to our country.”

Republican presidential candidates aren’t the only ones still taking shots at teachers’ unions.

Dave McCormick, who’s running to be the Republican nominee for the U.S. Senate seat for Pennsylvania currently held by Democratic Sen. Bob Casey Jr., said in March that he would like to “break the back of our teachers’ unions.” In those remarks, McCormick also accused teachers of introducing “sexualization” in elementary schools.

The Navigator Research poll also shows voters are more concerned about gun violence in schools and getting kids the education they need to be successful than they are about accusations that teachers are instructing students on gender and sexuality.

More than half of voters surveyed, or 58 percent, said keeping kids “safe from gun violence and mass shootings in schools and other public places” is an issue to focus on, compared to 28 percent who expressed concern about students “being exposed to woke ideas about race and gender in school.”.

Another recent poll released by the National Education Association similarly showed that voters are much more worried about school shootings and teacher pay than they are about social justice issues being taught in schools.

Reprinted with permission from American Independent.

Ron DeSantis

New Poll: DeSantis Fading In GOP Primary As Trump Gains

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who hasn't officially announced 2024 presidential bid yet, finally stepped into the campaign fray Monday with a jab about Donald Trump "paying hush money to a porn star."

"I can't speak to that," DeSantis told reporters, feigning naïveté about such a sordid topic.

It was DeSantis' first real swipe at Trump after he had been absorbing body blows for over a month, but did it come too late?

A new Morning Consult tracking poll updated Tuesday suggested continued slippage for DeSantis.

Here's the breakdown of candidates who even register:

  • Trump 54%(+28)
  • DeSantis 26%
  • Pence 7%
  • Haley 4%
  • Cheney 3%
  • Abbott 1%
  • Noem 1%
  • Pompeo 1%
  • Youngkin 1%
  • T. Scott 1%
  • Ramaswamy 1%

Morning Consult writes that DeSantis' latest showing tied his lowest level of support since the tracker began in December.

Trump has also been steadily gaining steam in the survey for the last couple months, with a 28-point lead now compared to 24 points earlier this month, up from a much weaker 16-point lead in mid-February.

Late last week, New York Times' Nate Cohn analyzed several months of data from a dozen polling outlets regularly tracking the GOP field and found that "every single one" had shown DeSantis losing momentum while Trump made gains.

Morning Consult's latest survey was conducted March 17-19, so it does not incorporate any reactions to the latest dustup between Trump and DeSantis. But it does incorporate DeSantis flip-flopping on Ukraine with his new declaration that its conflict with Russia is merely a "territorial dispute" that does not lie within America's "vital" strategic interests.

DeSantis has been enduring months of withering attacks from Trump, but things are about to get a lot hotter.

Reprinted with permission from Daily Kos.