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Poll: Democratic Congress Sees Rising Support For 2020 Re-Election

Roughly six in 10 Americans say their member of Congress deserves to be reelected in November, according to a Gallup poll released Monday. That level of support is almost 10 points higher than in early 2018, when Republicans were still in control of the House of Representatives.

In the 2018 midterm elections, Democrats picked up 40 House seats and won back the House majority for the first time in almost a decade. Many of the Democratic victories came from suburban districts, including areas that were once Republican strongholds like Orange County, California.

“Democrats have a solid majority in the U.S. House of Representatives, and the elevated 59 percent of Americans saying their member of Congress deserves reelection augurs well for their bid to maintain their majority next year,” Gallup wrote about the poll.

A higher percentage of Americans saying their member of Congress deserves to be reelected correlates with a higher percentage of Congress members who are reelected the following November, Gallup noted. Gallup pointed to high reelection rates from 1998 through 2004, which corresponded with Americans’ relatively high support of their member of Congress.

“It’s gonna be pretty tough for Republicans to get back in the majority,” Rep. Ami Bera (D-CA), a member of the moderate New Democrat Coalition, said in a phone interview in early February, before the Gallup poll was released. Bera pointed to different data to back up his claim: polls that ask Americans if they favor voting for a generic Democrat or a generic Republican.

This type of generic polling is “usually is a good indicator of what folks are thinking,” Bera said.

According to an average of these generic polls from FiveThirtyEight, Democrats currently have a 7-point lead over Republicans, 48 percent to 41 percent. On Election Day 2018, Democrats held a 9-point lead, 51 percent to 42 percent.

If 2019 statewide elections are a precursor for what could happen in 2020, Democrats like Bera have more data points to support their optimism.

Louisiana re-elected Gov. John Bel Edward, a Democrat, in a state Trump carried by 20 points in 2016. In Kentucky, voters ousted Republican Gov. Matt Bevins in favor of Democrat Andy Beshear.

Further, voters in Virginia elected a Democratic majority to the state House and state Senate, giving Democrats control of the legislature and governorship for the first time in 26 years.

“Never say never,” Bera said, “but if I were making a wager, I would say we’re going to retain the House majority.”

Published with permission of The American Independent Foundation.

Trump Touts Fox Poll Showing Most Americans Want Him Ousted

Reprinted with permission from Alternet

When President Donald Trump touted a new Fox News poll on Sunday, he neglected to mention some of its key findings. Namely, half the country supports his removal from office, including an overwhelming majority of independent voters.

“Majority of people say ‘the U.S. Senate already has enough information!’” Trump tweeted on Sunday night, citing the Fox poll.

It is true that a plurality, albeit not a “majority,” of respondents say the Senate already has enough information about the Ukraine scandal which sparked Trump’s impeachment. But the poll cited by Trump also finds that 50 percent of the country wants the president removed from office based on the evidence before the Senate.

A full 50 percent of registered voters support Trump’s removal from office, while 44 percent say he should be acquitted, according to the poll. A CNN poll released last week also found that 51 percent of voters back Trump’s removal, while 45 percent oppose it.

Though the numbers are largely split down party lines, the Fox News poll shows that 53 percent of independents believe Trump should be removed, compared to just 34 percent who want him to remain in office.

By comparison, about 38 percent supported former President Bill Clinton’s removal when his impeachment trial began in January 1999.

Even though 55 percent of voters say that the economy is in good or excellent shape, 56 percent of voters say they are unhappy with the direction of the country. Forty-five percent of voters approve of the job Trump is doing, according to the poll, while 54 percent disapprove.

The poll largely mirrors the numbers in a Fox News poll from last month, which similarly found that half the country wants to see Trump convicted.

“I was stunned to see that that’s the number, because I thought that things were trending away,” Fox host Brian Kilmeade said at the time, “Although the president’s approval rating did take up in the same poll, so it’s almost like a split personality.”

Trump was criticized Sunday for tweeting about a poll which shows the public wants him gone.

“There’s a reason he’s not linking to the poll,” Robert Maguire, the research director for the group Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington, tweeted. “It shows… Americans believe the Senate already has enough info *to vote to remove Trump from office.*”

In fact, Fox News had a lot more bad news for the president over the weekend, though at least some network hosts managed to avoid discussing the terrible poll numbers while covering the poll on Sunday.

The Fox poll shows Trump losing by 9 percent to former Vice President Joe Biden, 6 percent to Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., 5 percent to Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., and 4 percent to former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg.

CNN poll released last week similarly showed Biden leading Trump by 9 points, Sanders by 7 points, Warren by 5, and Buttigieg by 4.

The hosts of “Fox & Friends Weekend” managed to do a five-minute segment on the poll without once mentioning that Trump was underwater against every leading Democrat.

“It’s really quite apparent that the Democrats, no matter who it is … you’ve got to run against a booming economy, a booming stock market and wages on the rise,” weekend co-host Griff Jenkins said.

Co-host Pete Hegseth argued that the numbers showing economic approval were more important than the actual head-to-head matchups.

“Voters say, ‘I just can’t give credit to [former President Barack] Obama for that anymore,’” Hegseth said, “‘It has to be President Trump.’”

House impeachment manager Rep. Sylvia Garcia, R-Texas, pointed to Fox News polling during Trump’s Senate trial to support the claim that Trump was so obsessed with Biden that he pressured Ukraine to investigate him, in turn sparking his impeachment.

“Senators, it’s obvious — because President Trump wanted to hurt Vice President Biden’s candidacy and help himself politically. He pushed for an investigation in 2019, because that’s when it would be valuable to him, President Trump. He pushed for it when it became clear that Vice President Biden could beat him, and he had good reason to be concerned,” Garcia said last week. “Beginning around March, Vice President Biden is beating the president in polls, even on Fox News. In April, Biden officially announces his candidacy, and . . . that is when the president gets worried.”

At Davos, Trump Boasts Of ‘Comeback’ Despite Weak Polls

Trump on Tuesday attended the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, and bragged at length about his administration and his accomplishments since taking office, just as the Senate began ramping up for his impeachment trial back home.

“When I spoke at this forum two years ago,” Trump told attendees, “I told you that we had launched the great American comeback. Today I’m proud to declare that the United States is in the midst of an economic boom the likes of which the world has never seen before.”

“America’s thriving, America’s flourishing, and, yes, America is winning again like never before,” he added, noting two recent “extraordinary” trade deals with China and with Canada and Mexico and reeling off positive statistics about the economy.

While that economic expansion, which began under Barack Obama in 2009, has continued under Trump, new polls show that the public is not as impressed with Trump as he is with himself.

On Tuesday, a newly released Morning Consult/Politico poll found that a plurality — 38 percent — would grade Trump’s job performance with an “F.” This represents a 2 point increase from the end of 2018.

Another 11 percent of Americans give Trump a “D,” meaning roughly half of the country rated him as below satisfactory. Just 21 percent rated Trump with an “A” and 17 percent gave him a “B.”

Trump was impeached last month by the House of Representatives on charges of obstruction and abuse of power. Though Trump told reporters in Davos on Tuesday that the proceedings were a “witch hunt” and a “hoax” — talking points he has used hundreds of times before — recent polling shows the public does not believe him.

On Monday, CNN released a poll showing that 51 percent of Americans now believe the Senate should convict and remove Trump from office. The same survey found that just 43 percent of Americans approve of the job Trump is doing, compared to 53 percent disapproval.

Another poll released on Tuesday by American Research Group found that 37 percent of Americans approve of Trump’s handling of his job, while 59 percent disapprove.

Published with permission of The American Independent Foundation.

New Poll: Black Voters Say Trump Has Made Racism Worse

Donald Trump is racist and has made racism in the United States worse, according to the overwhelming majority of African Americans in a new Washington Post -Ipsos poll.

When asked directly whether Trump is a racist, 83 percent of black Americans said yes, with just 13 percent saying no. Another 4 percent had no opinion.

Asked if Trump had made racism a bigger or smaller problem in the United States since taking office, 83 percent said Trump had made it a bigger problem, 2 percent said he’d made it smaller, and 15 percent said Trump had made no difference or didn’t share an opinion.

The poll comes just ahead of Martin Luther King Jr. Day, which celebrates the life and accomplishments of the iconic Civil Rights hero.

Since the beginning of his tenure, Trump has struggled to gain the approval of the black community. His decision to hire a white supremacist as a top White House adviser and his referral to neo-Nazi protesters in Charlottesville as “very fine people” did nothing to help his cause.

Trump has “taken hatred against people of color, in general, from the closet to the front porch,” one respondent told pollsters this week. Another respondent said Trump had “created an atmosphere of division and overt racism and fear of immigrants unseen in many years.”

In 2018, Trump referred to Haiti, El Salvador, and several African nations as “shithole countries,” saying the United States should instead “bring more [immigrants] from countries such as Norway,” according to the Washington Post. In 2019 he repeatedly attacked black Democratic lawmakers, including Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-MN), who was born in Somalia and who Trump suggested should “go back” to her home country, a common racist trope.

In rallies and statements, Trump often points to historically low African American unemployment as a key reason black voters should support him.

“The African American people have been calling the White House,” Trump said in July 2019. “They have never been so happy at what a president has done. Not only the lowest unemployment in history for African Americans, not only opportunity zones for really the biggest beneficiary, the inner cities, and not only criminal justice reform, but they’re so happy that I pointed out the corrupt politics of Baltimore. It’s filthy dirty, it’s so horrible, they are happy as hell.”

Trump was referring to his racist attacks on the late Maryland Rep. Elijah Cummings, whose home district Trump claimed was a “disgusting, rat and rodent-infested mess.”

According to this week’s Post poll, only one in five respondents believes Trump deserves credit for the unemployment number, while 77 percent say he deserves less credit.

“I don’t think [Trump] has anything to do with unemployment among African Americans,” Ethel Smith, a 72-year-old nanny from Georgia, told the Post. “I’ve always been a working poor person. That’s just who I am.”

The lack of Trump support from black Americans has is echoed in previous polling. In a September CNN poll, just 3 percent of African American women approved of Trump’s job performance. A July Hill-Harris poll showed Trump’s approval rating among African Americans at just 13 percent.

The Post poll also looked at potential 2020 matchups, showing African Americans overwhelmingly supporting any potential Democratic nominee over Trump.

Former Vice President Joe Biden came out on top, defeating Trump by a margin of 82 percent to four percent among African American voters if the election were held today. Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) came in second and third, respectively, followed by South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg.

In each of those matchups, Trump never received more than 4 percent support.

When asked about President Obama, 73 percent of Post poll respondents said he was good for African Americans, with only five percent saying he was bad.

Published with permission of The American Independent Foundation.