Tag: polls
Rupert Murdoch

Declining Polls On Fox News Enrage President

President Donald Trump has never liked when pollsters say he’s doing worse than he thinks he is. But now he’s escalating his war on polls and the press, suggesting that even right-wing media outlets should scrap their polling arms if the results don’t flatter him.

According to a Fox News poll released Wednesday, Trump’s approval rating is officially lower than it was during his first term, just as he approaches the 100-day mark of his second term.

The survey found his rating underwater at 44% approval and 55% disapproval—down five points from the previous month. Even worse, Trump’s 100-day rating lags behind Joe Biden’s (54%), Barack Obama’s (62%), and George W. Bush’s (63%) at the same point in their presidencies.

Even Republicans aren’t exactly brimming with optimism. Just 38% of voters overall—and 75% of Republicans—say they’re “encouraged” about the next four years. That’s a drop from his first term in 2017, which showed 45% and 84%, respectively.

The same poll gave Trump poor marks across the board—on the economy, foreign policy, guns, immigration, you name it. His economic approval in particular sank to a record low at 38%, with 55% of respondents saying conditions are getting worse for their families.

So how did Trump respond to this news? By calling for Fox News to kill its polling unit.

“Rupert Murdoch has told me for years that he is going to get rid of his FoxNews, Trump Hating, Fake Pollster, but he has never done so. This ‘pollster’ has gotten me, and MAGA, wrong for years. Also, and while he’s at it, he should start making changes at the China Loving Wall Street Journal. It sucks!!!” Trump wrote on Truth Social Thursday.

Of course, this isn’t some isolated poll. An April Ipsos survey for Reuters put Trump’s approval at just 42%, with only 37% backing his handling of the economy. A new Pew Research Center poll had him even lower, at 40%, with negative ratings across every major policy area. And a YouGov poll for The Economist wasn’t any better, with Trump clocking in at 41% approval, with every issue underwater there, too.

In other words: reality bites. But rather than face it, Trump’s trying to pressure outlets like Fox News and The Wall Street Journal into becoming full-time propaganda machines.

His push to kill off Fox’s polling arm is especially alarming given that it routinely produces some of the highest-quality polling in the business. If Fox caves, it would be a scandal—but not entirely shocking. Media executives have buckled to Trump before, afraid of the blowback if they don’t stay in his good graces.

Trump’s already suing CBS News’ “60 Minutes” for $10 billion, and he’s gone after ABC News, which recently settled a defamation suit and agreed to pay $15 million to Trump’s future presidential library. The Washington Post has also drifted rightward under Trump, winning plaudits from the administration for its “balance.”

And while polling isn’t perfect, Trump has a habit of going after those who publish anything he doesn’t like.

In December, he suedThe Des Moines Register and veteran pollster Ann Selzer for a pre-election poll showing Vice President Kamala Harris leading him in Iowa. Trump ended up winning the state by more than 13 points, and now he’s trying to make it a courtroom issue.

Trump’s latest tantrum makes his vision clear: Any outlet that doesn’t treat him like a demigod should be silenced, sued, or shut down. What he’s building isn’t just a cult of personality; it’s a MAGA-approved echo chamber where the “truth” is whatever he says it is.

Reprinted with permission from Daily Kos.

Polls: Voters Angry At Democratic Leaders (But They Don't Love GOP Either)

Polls: Voters Angry At Democratic Leaders (But They Don't Love GOP Either)

Two new polls indicate that Democratic voters are continuing to lose faith in their party as leadership struggles to respond to President Donald Trump.

An SSRS poll for CNN released Sunday found that only 29 percent of adults view Democrats favorably, marking a new low in CNN’s polling since 1992 and a 20-point drop since January 2021. Even Democrats and left-leaning respondents were less enthusiastic about their party, with just 63 percent favorability—down from 72 percent in January.

This starkly contrasts with the survey’s Republican and right-leaning respondents, who reported 79 percent favorability of the Republican Party.

Meanwhile, a second survey released Sunday by NBC News revealed that 27 percent of registered voters hold a positive view of Democrats—the lowest rating recorded in the outlet’s polls since 1990. And merely seven percent of respondents indicated a “very” positive view of Democrats.

While NBC’s poll also found that the Republican Party has a net negative image—49 percent of voters view it unfavorably and 39 percent view it favorably)—it noted that the GOP could at least take comfort in controlling both chambers of Congress and the presidency. Democrats, however, have to cling to the hope that their party might reclaim maybe one chamber of Congress in 2026.

Both surveys suggest that the lack of support for the Democratic Party stems from its own voters feeling fed up. Not only have they witnessed their party’s loss to Trump in 2024, but now they face Democratic leaders attempting to compromise with the president—something Republicans would never consider if the roles were reversed.

As top Democrats continue to bend a knee to Trump, he and Elon Musk have taken a hatchet to the federal government, making massive cuts via the so-called Department of Government Efficiency.

The results of these surveys come as Democrats continue disagreeing on the best way to govern. Over the weekend, progressives—and even some lawmakers from the party’s more moderate wing—harshly criticized Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer for conceding to Trump on the GOP-backed government spending bill.

After the House passed a partisan spending bill, Schumer and nine other Senate Democrats voted for cloture on Friday, ending a filibuster of Republicans’ detrimental funding bill. The bill proposed significant cuts to the federal budget while increasing defense spending by approximately $6 billion.

Schumer has defended his decision, even amid calls for him to step down or be replaced. But it remains unclear who he is trying to please. Some of his party members are weary of him, and now the public is shifting their support away from him, too.

In the SSRS poll for CNN, 57 percent of Democrats and left-leaning respondents expressed a desire for the party to focus on obstructing Trump’s agenda, compared to 42 percent who favored working with the GOP.

And NBC reported a similar finding: 65 percent of self-identified Democratic voters want their party to “stick to their positions even if this means not getting things done in Washington.”

Only 32 percent indicated a desire for Democrats to compromise with Trump, which marks a complete reversal from where Democrats stood in 2017, when 59 percent wanted members of Congress to seek consensus on policy.

These numbers may get worse over time, as both polls were largely or wholly conducted before the standoff over the government funding bill. Still, the results underscore how much Democratic voters are itching for their party to play at least some form of defense.

“I’m scared that compromising will lead to the downfall of our democracy, to only be slightly hyperbolic. It’s really scary to see the things being done, the things being slashed left and right without any regard for the outcome,” a Democratic voter and survey respondent told NBC.

These findings also align with a series of polls released last week, which suggest that Democratic voters view their party as ineffective and lacking direction.

Nevertheless, some Democratic leaders appear content to acquiesce to Trump rather than push back. And in doing so, they are alienating voters.

Reprinted with permission from Daily Kos

White House Deploys 'Rapid Response' Account To Smear Reporters, Push Fake Polls

White House Deploys 'Rapid Response' Account To Smear Reporters, Push Fake Polls

Donald Trump’s White House is using its state-run “Rapid Response 47” account to push lies, attack reporters, and hype fake poll numbers—blurring the line between official governance and a MAGA propaganda machine.

In a post on X Friday, the “Rapid Response 47” account posted a clip of White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt answering a question by NBC News Chief White House correspondent Peter Alexander on the White House north lawn.

“MUST WATCH: @PressSec smacks down Fake News loser @PeterAlexander as he tries to run cover for the WASTE, FRAUD, and ABUSE in the federal government,” the account posted to its more than 723,00 followers.

But Alexander asked a reasonable question, and it was far from the “smackdown” the page claimed it was.

“We’re now hearing from constituents in some traditionally red districts complaining about what they say is the chainsaw approach, saying that it’s being done very sloppily, the cuts to jobs and spending. How do you respond to that criticism?” asked Alexander.

“I love how the media takes a few critics when the overwhelming response from the American people is support for what this administration is doing,” replied Leavitt.

The account’s tactics mirror Trump’s own. In reality, Trump has been lying about his approval rating, making up fake polls that nobody could corroborate.

A recent Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Wednesday found that 44 percent of voters approve of his administration so far, and 51 percent disapprove. Earlier numbers haven’t been any better. A February 7 Pew Research poll showed his approval rating at 47 percent.

The “Rapid Response 47” X account is not the official White House account but is labeled as another government administrative page and links to the official White House website. It was rolled out by the White House shortly after the inauguration. Its bio states that it’s the “Official Rapid Response account of the Trump 47 White House. Supporting @POTUS's America First agenda and holding the Fake News accountable. MAGA!”

On Wednesday, the official White House X account posted an AI-altered photo of Trump portrayed as a king wearing a crown, stating, “Long live the king.” On Tuesday, the same account drew outrage after it posted a degrading ASMR-style video of undocumented immigrants being detained and transported out of the country.

The attacks on the press haven’t stopped at social media accounts.

The White House has also attacked the First Amendment by banning the Associated Press from the Oval Office and Air Force One over the news organization refusing to call the Gulf of Mexico the “Gulf of America” after Trump’s executive order declaring it so. The administration’s newly appointed Federal Communication Commission chair, Brendan Carr, also filed three new complaints against CBS News, ABC News, and NBC News in January.

With government-run accounts amplifying partisan attacks, AI-generated propaganda, and press restrictions, Trump’s second term is looking more tyrannical by the day.

Reprinted with permission from Daily Kos.

Kamala Harris

New Iowa Poll Is 'Canary In The Coal Mine' For Trump

Ann Selzer’s Iowa Poll for the Des Moines Register came out Saturday, and it’s a political thermonuclear bomb:

Kamala Harris: 47
Donald Trump: 44

The previous poll had Trump up 47-43 in September, and leading President Joe Biden 50-32 in June.

And this matters far beyond saying “it’s just one poll.”

Selzer is one of the nation's most accurate pollsters, doing the vast majority of her work in her home state of Iowa.

Her track record is impeccable: (Actual results in parenthesis)

2022 Senate: R+12 (R+12)
2020 President: R+7 (R+8)
2020 Senate: R+4 (R+7)
2018 Governor: D+2 (R+3) — a rare miss
2016 President: R+7 (R+9)
2014 Senate: R+7 (R+8)
2012 President: D+5 (D+6)

I remember that 2016 poll like it was yesterday. At the time, Iowa was still considered a battleground state, with Hillary Clinton’s campaign heavily contesting it. When those results came back, we shrugged them off, as they were significantly out of line with other polling showing a close but steady Clinton lead. In hindsight, it was the canary in the coal mine.

And that’s what this is for Donald Trump now. It’s not just the trendlines. Trump won Iowa by eight points in 2020. Even a swing of a few points in a white, rural, midwestern state spells incredible danger for Republican chances across the entire midwest, and even into Nebraska, where independent Senate candidate Dan Osborn is trying to pull off a massive upset to unseat incumbent Republican Deb Fischer in that deep red state. Iowa also has two competitive House races, and if these numbers hold, Democrats could flip both of them on Tuesday.

The internals are downright brutal for Trump and his party.

“Independent voters, who had consistently supported Trump in the leadup to this election, now break for Harris. That’s driven by the strength of independent women, who back Harris by a 28-point margin, while independent men support Trump, but by a smaller margin,” the Register reported.

“Similarly, senior voters who are 65 and older favor Harris. But senior women support her by a more than 2-to-1 margin, 63 percent to 28 percent, while senior men favor her by just two percentage points, 47 percent to 45 percent.”

Harris is crushing it with white, older, rural women.

And who are the most reliable voters, not just in Iowa but the entire freakin’ country? Yeah, those white, older, rural women.

So the polling aggregators? Throw them out. Even Nate Silver admits that the data inputs for them—public polls—are garbage, with “herding” driving risk-averse pollsters into releasing the exact same numbers as their peers.

“Specifically, the odds are 1 in 9.5 trillion against at least this many polls showing such a close margin,” Silver wrote. Yet somehow he refuses to make the next leap—if the data is quite literally impossible, then how can his model still be of any insight given that it is based on that garbage data?

That goes for 538 and all the other aggregators. Throw them out. This is a different kind of election.

As I tweeted on Friday:

This Selzer poll proves my point, and it won’t be the only state in which the final results will be different than what the public polling and the aggregators claim.

I will say this: Harris is looking really good in the Blue Wall states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. And holy shit, the ground game is driving hard for that final victory.

The sunbelt states are tighter, and Trump has a real chance to win them. We don’t want that. We want to win everything and then some. Like Iowa. And the Texas and Florida Senate races.

So no, none of this is to say that Harris and Senate and House Democrats have it in the bag. We work hard for every last possible vote, everywhere.

But just like in 2016, Selzer has reset the expectations of the race.

Let’s freakin’ finish strong and bring it home.

Reprinted with permission from Daily Kos.

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