Trump warned of a “bloodbath” in the auto industry if he lost the election

In March 2024, Trump sparked a controversy by saying during a campaign rally: “Now, if I don’t get elected, it’s going to be a bloodbath for the whole — that’s going to be the least of it. It’s going to be a bloodbath for the country.”

Trump’s campaign and media defenders claimed that Trump’s comment was about the auto industry rather than another instance of his violent rhetoric.

Even then, Trump was lying. The auto industry was in excellent shape during the Biden administration. Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that more people were employed in auto manufacturing late in the Biden administration than at any time since December 2006, with a peak of about 1.03 million Americans employed in the industry under Biden. BLS data also showed that wages throughout the auto industry reached record highs under Biden.

Additionally, Trump’s first-term steel tariffs “hampered the U.S. auto industry, sparking the loss of thousands of jobs,” according to PolitiFact.

A Wall Street Journal editorial warned “Trump’s tariffs will punish Michigan”

On February 25, the Wall Street Journal editorial board wrote of a new study that shows how Trump’s tariffs will “damage the U.S. car industry, even as the economy slows and uncertainty spreads.” The Journal continued: “If the goal is to harm U.S. auto workers and Republican prospects in Michigan, then by all means go ahead, Mr. President.” According to the editorial, the study from the Anderson Economic Group found that Trump’s 25 percent tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports would cause vehicle prices to soar:

Start with auto prices. The study estimates that a 25% tariff on the U.S. neighbors would increase the cost of a full-size SUV assembled in North America by $9,000 and a pickup truck by $8,000. The cost of an electric-vehicle cross-over would increase by $12,200. Canada is the biggest supplier to the U.S. of nickel, a key critical mineral in lithium-ion batteries.
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Mr. Trump says tariffs will force auto makers to make more cars in the U.S. Not likely, and that would take time in any case. Domestic demand for some vehicle models—especially sedans—isn’t sufficient to justify the cost of building new U.S. factories. Auto makers will have to absorb the tariff, increase prices on cars, or stop selling some models because they are too expensive.

The Journal also wrote that “U.S. auto workers will pay, too, if auto sales drop as a result of higher prices.”

In response, Trump ranted about the Journal in general and this editorial in particular on Truth Social, writing:

I don’t understand The Wall Street Journal Editorial Board, never have. They come to my aid when I least expect it, sometimes strongly, and I greatly appreciate that — Very meaningful! But then they come out with some real CLINKERS, like today’s Editorial that my Auto Tariffs will hurt the Michigan Automobile Business. They are sooo WRONG, in fact, it is just the opposite.

Experts agree Trump’s tariffs will hurt the industry and raise car prices

Trump has announced multiple tariffs that would drastically affect the auto industry.

Trump’s 25 percent tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico would, according to the Cato Institute, “harm US automotive operations and workers, as well as American car consumers” because of the integration of both countries in the U.S. auto market.

Next to be announced were 25 percent tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, which of course are used car manufacturing. Lastly, Trump announced a 25 percent tariff on all automobiles (along with pharmaceuticals and computer chips) imported into the country.

Experts have made clear that these tariffs, either separately or together, would have devastating effects on the U.S. auto industry.

• Bloomberg: Ford CEO Jim Farley warned that Trump’s tariffs on Canada and Mexico alone would “blow a hole” in and be “devastating” to the U.S. auto industry. [Bloomberg, 2/11/25]
• Bloomberg: Tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports could raise new-car prices by $3,000. Bloomberg also reported that the tariffs “could add $60 billion in costs to the sector, according to consultant AlixPartners,” much of which would be “passed on to consumers, which could see new-vehicle prices rise by about $3,000, Wolfe analysts have estimated.” [Bloomberg, 2/11/25]
• AP: “President Donald Trump’s tariffs on steel imports … could wreak havoc on American auto manufacturing, industry leaders say.” AutoForecast Solutions analyst Sam Fiorani told The Associated Press that “raising the price of what is among the most important components of the vehicle is only going to raise the price of an already expensive product.” [The Associated Press, 2/11/25]
• CNN: “Consumers are expected to feel most of the burn by the new import taxes on automobiles, as prices of cars could jump by thousands of dollars, experts have warned.” CNN additionally reported that “nearly half of vehicle sales in the US last year, including cars and light trucks, were imported from foreign countries.” [CNN, 2/19/25]
• Quartz: “A 25% duty on the average $25,000 cost of a vehicle imported from Mexico and Canada would add $6,250 in costs, S&P Global Mobility said.” Quartz added: “Cars that have parts imported from either country — such as a Ford F-series pickup with a Canadian engine — would also see a price increase.” [Quartz, 2/26/25]
• Quartz: Anderson Economic Group estimates that Trump’s “announced duties on imports of aluminum and steel would add another $250 to $800 per gas-powered vehicle and up to $2,500 on EVs” and stated that it was “inevitable” that there would be job cuts. Additionally, according to Quartz, the group’s study showed “vehicles made in Europe and Asia would see a $800 to $1,600 price hike.” [Quartz, 2/26/25]
• Yale’s Budget Lab: Trump’s 25 percent tariff on automobiles, pharmaceuticals, and computer chips would mean “average automobile and pharmaceutical prices would rise 8.5-10.5 percent, accounting for the tariffs themselves, potential dollar appreciation, and domestic price hikes.” [The Budget Lab, 2/25/25]