Tag: stocks
Donald Trump

How Trump May Use Trade Chaos For Illegal Gain

You can get rich when stocks go up. You can get rich when stocks go down. When stocks go up, people who knew to buy them in advance may win big. If they go down, investors who had the wisdom to "go short" on them — that is, bet on their decline — can make a bundle.

Clearly, anyone who can predict what stock prices would do can make magnificent profits. And who knew that Donald Trump was about to announce market-moving plans for bigger tariffs, then smaller tariffs, then sideways tariffs, then tariff delays?

Trump knew.

It happens that trading stocks or other investments based on insider information, whether by a corporate executive or government official, is highly illegal. Trump and any confidants who got wind of what he was about to say on tariffs could have made fortunes buying or selling on that information.

Were Trump and friends engaging in such fraud? So far no one has presented direct evidence that Trump's whiplash statements and contradictory actions on tariffs are part of a ploy to manipulate stock prices. But I did ask a conservative banker friend whether he thought insiders were trading on all this tariff chaos. His answer: "I have absolutely no doubt about it."

A number of factors strongly hint that this could be going on.

Hint number one is that if one believes Trump's vows to move forward on tariffs, none of this makes sense. Nearly every economist holds that reckless tariffs will crash the economy. As a negotiating tactic, what have these gyrations produced? Pathetically little.

Example: Trump slapped 25 percent tariffs on Canada and Mexico at midnight, March 4. Stock prices tumbled. Hours later, his Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said Trump might reconsider. Trump then announces a one-month delay on some tariffs. Stocks jumped.

U.S. automakers rely on parts from Mexico and Canada to make their vehicles less expensive and easier to sell. Trump "explained" that the American companies could use the month to move that production back to the United States.

Let's cut to the chase: Vehicle makers couldn't build new parts factories in just a month even if they wanted to. But gosh, what a good time insiders could have trading on their pain.

Hint number two is that Trump is firing ethics watchdogs that would call attention to illegal stock manipulation. The Department of Justice, for one, is supposed to prosecute government officials for insider trading. Trump just gave the No. 2 position at DOJ to Todd Blanche, who was his personal criminal defense lawyer.

Trump did a mass firing of inspectors general, some of whom investigate insider trading by government officials. He didn't even give Congress the 30-days' notice required by law.

Hint number three is that Trump simply loves a good scam. It matters not whether the victims are students at his university, investors in his bankrupt casinos or his fans.

Some may recall how the Trump Rebate Banking System suckered sad members of his cult. TRB sold such items as "Trump Bucks," "Trump coins" and membership cards on the false claim they would become legal tender in a future monetary system.

As things now stand, a big chunk of North American trade remains exposed to tariffs. That means Trump has much opportunity to play more tariff games with friendly countries, U.S. workers, manufacturers and ordinary investors.

The time has long passed for Americans to dismiss the idea that Trump's yo-yo "trade policy" is a simple matter of indecision. They should ask whether it involves, or even revolves around, an insider trading scheme benefiting Trump and his consorts. Does anyone have a better explanation for it?

Reprinted with permission from Creators.

As Markets Plunge, CNN Supercut Shows Trump Warning Of Crash (Unless He Won)

As Markets Plunge, CNN Supercut Shows Trump Warning Of Crash (Unless He Won)

President Donald Trump notably stayed away from cameras on Monday, as Wall Street experienced its worst day in years as investors react to a climate of economic uncertainty.

On Monday evening, CNN host Anderson Cooper reminded viewers that despite normally being willing to take questions from reporters in the Oval Office, Trump was "nowhere to be seen" following a "massive stock sell off that began the moment the bell rang." Cooper noted that the Dow Jones Industrial Average was "down almost 900 points," while the Nasdaq Composite "took the worst beating" of the day, down by four percent after the conclusion of trading on Monday. He also remarked that today marked the biggest single-day decline since September of 2022.

"More than an hour after markets closed, the White House did finally put out a statement touting the president's economic agenda and first term record on the economy. It didn't mention the massive drops today, nor what sparked it," Cooper said. "The culprit wasn't a poorly received report of jobs, GDP or consumer spending. as is often the case. It was what the president himself said."

Cooper then aired an excerpt of an interview the president gave to Fox Business host Maria Bartiromo, in which he waffled when she asked him if he was "expecting a recession this year."

"I hate to predict things like that. There is a period of transition because what we're doing is very big. we're bringing wealth back to America. That's a big thing," Trump said. "And there are always periods of, it takes a little time."

Cooper then noted that Trump was similarly cagey with reporters on Air Force One when they asked for clarity on what he told Bartiromo, with one reporter pointing out that he "hesitated" at the recession question.

"I tell you what, of course you hesitate. Who knows?" Trump responded. "All I know is this: We're going to take in hundreds of billions of dollars in tariffs."

Cooper contrasted Trump's tone with that of Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, who proclaimed in a recent interview that there was "no chance" of a recession. He observed that Trump has "no such confidence," which he said was "notable" given his recent bullish attitude after the February jobs report showed the U.S. economy adding more than 100,000 new jobs.

"Perhaps it's not surprising he didn't want to be on camera today as the markets crashed. After all, he has often tied a president's performance as a leader to the stock market," Cooper said. "During a brief dip in the markets in late October and early November, Trump blamed it on Democrats."

According to Cooper, "one line [Trump] used repeatedly throughout much of 2024" was that a Democratic victory would result in a poor economy.

"If Harris wins this election, you will quickly have a Kamala Harris economic crash," Trump said. "You're going to have a crash."

Reprinted with permission from Alternet.

Caught Dumping Stocks, Sen. Burr Requests Ethics Investigation

Caught Dumping Stocks, Sen. Burr Requests Ethics Investigation

Reprinted with permission from ProPublica.

Sen. Richard Burr, the powerful chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, requested a Senate Ethics Committee investigation into his stock trading, a day after ProPublica and the Center for Responsive Politics reported that he had dumped significant amounts of shares before the market crash triggered by the coronavirus outbreak.

Burr unloaded between $628,000 and $1.72 million of his holdings on Feb. 13 in 33 separate transactions, a significant portion of his total stock holdings. The sales came soon after he offered public assurances that the government was ready to battle the coronavirus.

On Twitter Friday morning, Burr defended the sell-off. “I relied solely on public news reports to guide my decision regarding the sale of stocks on February 13,” he said. “Specifically, I closely followed CNBC’s daily health and science reporting out of its Asia bureaus at the time.” He asked for the ethics committee to “open a complete review of the matter with full transparency.”

The ethics committee can recommend disciplinary action against lawmakers and refer potentially criminal violations to law enforcement. But it has been criticized for being too lax. It is illegal for members of Congress to trade shares on non-public information they gather in the course of their work. But cases are rare because proving that a politician relied on such non-public information is difficult.

As the head of the intelligence committee, Burr, a North Carolina Republican, has access to the government’s most highly classified information about threats to America’s security. His committee was receiving daily coronavirus briefings around this time, according to a Reuters story.

A week after Burr’s sales, the stock market began a sharp decline and has lost about 30% since.

After the story published, Burr faced a firestorm of criticism from both sides of the aisle. Former Obama administration officials along with prominent Trump allies blasted Burr’s stock sales. Calls for his resignation came from both ends of the political spectrum, including Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., and the Fox News host Tucker Carlson.

Thom Tillis, North Carolina’s junior senator, said on Friday that a review by the ethics committee was warranted. “Given the circumstances, Senator Burr owes North Carolinians an explanation,” Tillis, a Republican, wrote.

Throughout the day Thursday, news outlets reported instances of other lawmakers who also sold off stock before the market tanked.

The Daily Beast reported that Kelly Loeffler, a Georgia Republican who took office this year, sold off stocks jointly owned with her husband worth between $1.2 million and $3.1 million in the weeks after senators received a private briefing on the coronavirus from the Trump administration. Loeffler’s husband is the chairman of the New York Stock Exchange. In response, Loeffler posted on Twitter early on Friday morning that “this is a ridiculous and baseless attack. I do not make investment decisions for my portfolio. Investment decisions are made by multiple third-party advisors without my or my husband’s knowledge or involvement.”

Other senators who sold off stocks this year include Jim Inhofe, the Oklahoma Republican who chairs the Armed Services Committee. Reports with the Senate show that Inhofe sold shares worth between $380,000 and $830,000 both before and after the briefing, which Inhofe did not attend. “I do not have any involvement in my investment decisions,” Inhofe posted on Twitter on Friday. “In December 2018, shortly after becoming chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, I instructed my financial advisor to move me out of all stocks and into mutual funds to avoid any appearance of controversy.”

Reports of sales by other senators surfaced as well. But those sales were less anomalous or noteworthy. Sen. Ron Johnson, a Wisconsin Republican, reported selling shares in a private firm he ran, Pacur LLC, worth between $5 million and $25 million. That transaction took place on March 2. The deal had apparently been in the works for some time and had been announced on Feb. 11.

In another case generating headlines, filings also show large sales reported by Sen. Dianne Feinstein, the California Democrat who serves on the Intelligence Committee alongside Burr. But they only involved one stock. Feinstein’s husband, Richard Blum, sold off shares in Allogene Therapeutics Inc. worth between $1.5 million and $6 million on Jan. 31 and Feb. 18. Blum is a frequent stock trader, according to Feinstein’s financial disclosures, and appears to have taken a loss on at least a portion of the shares he sold.

Asked about senators making stock trades at a press conference Friday, President Trump said “I’m not aware of it, I saw some names.”

He added, “I find them to all be very honorable people, that’s all I know and they said they did nothing wrong.” The only senator he addressed by name was Dianne Feinstein, and complained that reporters at the press conference were not noting her stock trades.

By the standards of the Senate, Burr is not particularly wealthy: Roll Call estimated his net worth at $1.7 million in 2018, indicating that the February sales significantly shaped his financial fortunes and spared him from some of the pain that many Americans are now facing.

He was one of the authors of the Pandemic and All-Hazards Preparedness Act, which shapes the nation’s response to public health threats like the coronavirus. Burr’s office did not respond to requests for comment about what sort of briefing materials, if any, on the coronavirus threat Burr may have seen as chair of the intelligence committee before his selling spree.

According to NPR, Burr had given a VIP group at an exclusive social club a much more gloomy preview of the economic impact of the coronavirus than what he had told the public, saying it might close schools and impede business travel. In response, Burr said the NPR report was misleading.

Burr’s public comments had been considerably more positive. In a Feb. 7 op-ed that he co-authored with another senator, he assured the public that “the United States today is better prepared than ever before to face emerging public health threats, like the coronavirus.” He wrote, “No matter the outbreak or threat, Congress and the federal government have been vigilant in identifying gaps in its readiness efforts and improving its response capabilities.”

Members of Congress are required by law to disclose their securities transactions.

Burr was one of just three senators who in 2012 opposed the bill that explicitly barred lawmakers and their staff from using nonpublic information for trades and required regular disclosure of those trades. In opposing the bill, Burr argued at the time that insider trading laws already applied to members of Congress. President Barack Obama signed the bill, known as the STOCK Act, that year.

Stock transactions of lawmakers are reported in ranges. Burr’s Feb. 13 selling spree was his largest stock selling day of at least the past 14 months, according to a ProPublica review of Senate records. Unlike his typical disclosure reports, which are a mix of sales and purchases, all of the transactions were sales.

His biggest sales included companies that are among the most vulnerable to an economic slowdown. He dumped up to $150,000 worth of shares of Wyndham Hotels and Resorts, a chain based in the United States that has lost two-thirds of its value. And he sold up to $100,000 of shares of Extended Stay America, an economy hospitality chain. Shares of that company are now worth less than half of what they did at the time Burr sold.

The assets come from accounts that are held by Burr, belong to his spouse or are jointly held.

IMAGE: Senator Richard Burr (R-NC).

Stock Futures, U.S. Dollar, Oil Prices Plunge As Markets Recoil From Trump

Stock Futures, U.S. Dollar, Oil Prices Plunge As Markets Recoil From Trump

By Wayne Cole

SYDNEY (Reuters) – The U.S. dollar sank and stocks plummeted as mayhem came to world markets on Wednesday as investors faced the possibility of a shock win by Republican Donald Trump that could upend the global political order.

Every new TV network projection in the U.S. presidential election showed the race to be far closer than anyone had thought, sending investors stampeding to safe-haven assets.

Sovereign bonds and gold surged while the Mexican peso went into near free-fall as stations gave North Carolina to Trump.

“Markets are reacting as though the four horsemen of the apocalypse just rode out of Trump Tower,” said Sean Callow, a forex strategist at Westpac in Sydney.

“Or at least 3 of them – it might be 4 when the prospect of a clean sweep of Congress sinks in.”

As of 0425 GMT, Trump was leading Democratic rival Hillary Clinton by 19 Electoral College votes, with a tally of 228-209, with several key battleground states yet to be decided. It takes 270 to win.

U.S. stock futures recoiled more than 4.5 percent, matching the carnage that followed the British vote to leave the European Union in June that wiped trillions of dollars of value off global markets.

Investors fear a Trump victory could cause global economic and trade turmoil, discouraging the Federal Reserve from raising interest rates in December as long expected.

Fed fund futures were even starting to toy with the idea of a cut in rates next year <0#FF:> and it was possible the Bank of Japan and European Central Bank might be forced to ease policy further.

South Korean authorities were thought to have intervened to steady their currency, and dealers were wondering if central banks globally would step in to calm nerves.

The scale of the scare was clear in the Mexican peso, which plunged more than 12 percent against the dollar in the biggest daily move in two decades.

“There’s a lot of panic in the market, it is definitely an outcome it was not expecting,” said Juan Carlos Alderete, a strategist at Banorte-IXE.

The peso has become a touchstone for sentiment on the election as Trump’s trade policies are seen as damaging to its export-heavy economy.

But the story was very different against the safe-haven yen, with the dollar shedding 3.5 percent to 101.70 yen. The euro jumped 2.2 percent to $1.1265.

Graphic of live election results: http://tmsnrt.rs/2fxyZV0

Graphic of live market reaction: http://tmsnrt.rs/2fXfo0L

Live Coverage: http://live.reuters.com/event/election_2016

MAXIMUM UNCERTAINTY

Asian stocks skidded, with MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific stocks outside Japan down 2.5 percent and the Nikkei off nearly 4 percent.

With voting completed in more than two-thirds of the 50 U.S. states, the race was still too close to call in Iowa, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire, states that could be vital to deciding who wins the presidency.

Fox News projected Trump had taken Florida and North Carolina, and projected Clinton would win Virginia.

Markets have tended to favor Clinton as a status quo candidate who would be considered a safe pair of hands at home on the world stage.

“In contrast, a Trump victory would trigger massive uncertainty that would likely undermine risk assets at least initially, which in turn could preclude a Fed rate hike this year,” warned Michelle Girard, chief U.S. economist at RBS.

Sovereign bonds flew ahead, pushing yields on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes down a huge 13 basis points to 1.74 percent, again the largest drop since Brexit.

Yields had briefly touched a six-month high around 1.8960 percent in early trade.

In commodity markets, gold climbed 3.4 percent to $1,318 an ounce as the dollar slid.

Oil turned tail on concerns over the global economic outlook, with U.S. crude shedding $1.34 to $43.63 a barrel, while Brent fell $1.24 to $44.80. [O/R]

(Reporting by Wayne Cole; Editing by Kim Coghill & Shri Navaratnam)

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