The Polls Are Crazy, So Stick To The Averages

There’s something to drive nearly everyone crazy in the latest batch of polls for the 2012 presidential election.

Gallup has Republican nominee Mitt Romney up by seven, taking 52 percent of the vote. No candidate except Ronald Reagan has ever been over 50 percent this late in a presidential election and won. However, Bush was leading Gore by 7 at this point in the 2000 election and went on to lose the popular vote.

Daily Kos looked into Gallup’s numbers to find out how they’re showing the Republican with a 5-percentage-point larger lead than the right-leaning Rasmussen Reports. The president was leading in the East, Midwest and West, but getting crushed in the South by 22 percent.

A new daily tracking poll from PPP shows the race as a tie after Romney led their national poll by 4. But that poll did have some disturbing news for the president when it comes to independent voters who favored Romney by 5 percent.

Polling experts—like The New York Times’ Nate Silver—recommend sticking to the poll averages to get a clear picture of the race.

The Real Clear Politics average shows Romney up by 1 percent. Polltracker says Romney is up by 1.1 percent.

Pollster shows the president leading the electoral college with 277 votes, seven more than he needs to win re-election. Real Clear Politics electoral map has Romney leading for the first time. Romney is up 206 to 201.

Real Clear Politics’ map is showing Pennsylvania as a toss-up, which is difficult for many Democrats to believe. But a poll from October 12 showed Romney leading in the state by 4 points. However, we’re assuming the firm behind the poll, Susquehanna Polling and Research, is Republican-leaning, since they called Romney’s second debate performance “excellent.” Most polls agree that the president won the second debate.

The recent swing state numbers hold the best news for the president. In polls released today, he was up in Colorado, Florida, Michigan and Virginia—though all within or near the margin of error. A Rasmussen poll shows the president down by 6 in North Carolina, where reportedly the Romney campaign is so confident that they’re pulling out resources to head to more competitive states.

Nate Silver still gives the president a 65 percent chance of winning the electoral vote, and Intrade, where people bet on the outcome of the election, still has the president at a 62.9 percent chance of winning. At below a 60 percent likelihood of winning, Silver rates a race a toss-up.

So for now, the odds are still leaning in President Obama’s favor.


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