The National  Memo Logo

Smart. Sharp. Funny. Fearless.

Monday, December 09, 2019 {{ new Date().getDay() }}

Reprinted with permission from Alternet.

With all the advantages of being an incumbent president, Donald Trump stills seems to be facing steep headwinds in his upcoming bid for re-election.

ABC News reported on Friday that it had obtained polling data from the president’s campaign that paints a bleak picture of his 2020 chances. It explained:

The polling data showed a double-digit lead for Biden in Pennsylvania 55-39 and Wisconsin 51-41 and had Biden leading by seven points in Florida. In Texas, a Republican stronghold, the numbers showed the president only leading by two points.

If Trump loses Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Florida in 2020, he will effectively lose the White House. Even coming close to a loss in Texas likely will mean he has experienced a nationwide blowout and a humiliating defeat.

As ABC News noted, Trump had claimed that this internal polling, which had previously been reported without the underlying numbers, didn’t exist at all. But Trump 2020 campaign manager Brad Parscale confirmed the data’s authenticity to the outlet, though he claimed it was “ancient.”

Just like with any leak, though, readers should be skeptical about why this particular information had been shared. Even if it is true, which it appears to be, selective disclosure can create a distorted perception.

Vox’s Matt Yglesias pointed out that ABC News only received a narrow set of top line numbers, not a comprehensive file on the campaign’s polling.

“Someone on the Trump campaign specifically wanted to generate a ‘Trump is polling poorly against Biden’ story and did not want that fact to appear in a broader context,” Ygelsias said.

IMAGE: Former Vice President Joe Biden. REUTERS/Jim Young  

Advertising

Start your day with National Memo Newsletter

Know first.

The opinions that matter. Delivered to your inbox every morning

LONDON (Reuters) - British Prime Minister Boris Johnson resigned as Conservative Party leader and therefore will be replaced as Prime Minister.

Johnson appeared outside Number 10 Downing Street to announce his decision to resign after a party revolt and resignations of several of his top ministers.

Keep reading... Show less

Peggy Nienaber

YouTube Screenshot

Peggy Nienaber may provide her own downfall thanks to hubris. Rolling Stone revealed on Wednesday that the far-right activist, who serves as vice president of the nonprofit anti-abortion group Faith & Liberty and serves as Liberty Counsel’s executive director of D.C. Ministry, was caught bragging about praying with Supreme Court justices. While appearing on a livestream she didn’t realize was being recorded, Nienaber confirmed that she prays with some of the justices inside the Supreme Court itself.

“They will pray with us, those that like us to pray with them,” Nienaber said, adding with a laugh, “Some of them don’t!” This claim was backed up by the founder of the ministry that ultimately got absorbed into Liberty Counsel, which the Southern Poverty Law Center has designated as a "hate group."

Keep reading... Show less
{{ post.roar_specific_data.api_data.analytics }}