Polls Show Voters May Be Ready To Dump Convicted Felon

Polls Show Voters May Be Ready To Dump Convicted Felon

Former President Donald Trump leaving Manhattan courthouse after his conviction on May 30, 2024

Former President Donald Trump

Donald Trump is finally facing punishment for his crimes—34 of them, to be exact. But virtually no one foresaw his guilty verdict, including the public.

In May, the progressive pollsterNavigator Research found that, while 57 percent of voters believed Trump had committed a crime at some point during his presidency, a 47 percent plurality of voters didn't think Trump would be convicted for any of his crimes. Conviction doubters included a 46 percent plurality of independents (just 30 percent believed Trump would be found guilty) and a 61 percent majority of Republicans.

But early signs in post-conviction polling suggest that Trump’s conviction might have more impact on the electorate than originally anticipated.

A Morning Consult poll over the weekend found that 54 percent of voters approved of the verdict while just 34 percent disapproved.

But even more notably, nearly half of independents (49 percent) want Trump to drop out, as do 15 percent of Republicans, which is about the same amount of the GOP electorate that has reliably voted for Nikki Haley in the Republican primary, including after she dropped out of the race.

An Ipsos poll for Reuters over the weekend found that one in 10 Republicans and one-quarter of independents said that they would be less likely to vote for Trump following his conviction.

A weekend focus group of two-time Trump voters conducted by Republican strategist and anti-Trumper Sarah Longwell found that five of the nine participants said that Trump’s felony conviction made them less likely to vote for him in 2024. While some of those voters had already begun to sour on Trump, conviction became the final nail in the coffin.

"I'm tired of the lies," said two-time Trump voter Michele, a 52-year-old Floridian. "I'm tired of the nonsense. And I believed the testimony. And that is why I am happy that the jury found him guilty."

Now that Trump is a convicted felon, Michele called him "completely unfit."

"He can't pass a basic security clearance at this point," she said.

In some ways, the biggest impact of Trump's 34-count conviction could be the way it jolts awake the electorate. What has become obvious over the last several months of polling is that President Joe Biden's strength lies among voters who are engaged and paying attention, whereas the foundation of Trump's slim polling advantage relies on less engaged voters.

A recent YouGov survey for CBS News found that nearly one-quarter of voters had heard little to nothing about Trump’s trial, including 40 percent of voters under 30, 33 percent of Black voters, and 37 percent of Latino voters—among all of whom, despite typically voting Democratic, Biden is currently underperforming.

Koda Furman, a Kenosha, Wisconsin, resident who doesn't plan to vote, was one of 30 battleground state residents who spoke with NBC News about Trump’s conviction.

“I was just on TikTok scrolling past and I saw some memes about what happened with Donald Trump and all that," Furman said. "Something happened with him and court and all that [and] he got caught.”

That's exactly the type of person the Biden campaign needs to engage and turn out to the polls in November.

The first debate on June 27 could be an opportunity for the Biden campaign to grab the attention of potential voters who have tuned out so far this election cycle.

Reprinted with permission from Daily Kos.

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