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Texas GOP Fail? New Polls Show Democrats Lead In Gerrymandered Seats

Texas GOP Fail? New Polls Show Democrats Lead In Gerrymandered Seats

Last year, Texas Republicans fired the first shot in the Great Mid-Decade Gerrymandering War, further rigging their state’s map in an effort to flip up to five House seats held by Democrats and aid the GOP’s attempts to retain its majority in the chamber.

So how’s that working out? If new polling is to be believed, not so well.

A new poll, conducted by the Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center at Texas Southern University, finds Democratic nominees leading in three heavily gerrymandered districts. Two are held by Democratic representatives whom the GOP seeks to oust with the new map.

The most surprising result comes in Texas’ 15th District, where Democrat Bobby Pulido leads Republican Rep. Monica De La Cruz, 50 percent to 45 percenr. That five-percentage-point margin in a competitive contest would not be shocking on its face—it puts a Republican victory within the margin of error, in fact—but Republicans drew the lines here to be not at all competitive. In 2024, voters in the new district backed President Donald Trump 18 points, according to data from The Downballot.

If Pulido, a superstar in the world of Tejano music, were to win the district by 5 points, it would represent a jaw-dropping 23-point swing in Democrats’ favor.

Similar trends pop up in the poll’s two Democrat-held House districts. In Texas’ 28th District, Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar leads Republican Tano Tijerina, 45 percent to 34 percenr, in a district that went for Trump by 10 points in 2024. And in Texas’ 34th District, Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez leads Republican Eric Flores, 45 percent to 42 percenr, in a district that backed Trump by just over 10 points.

There are caveats here, of course.

We shouldn’t take too much away from any single survey. Even high-quality polls can be wrong sometimes. That said, the Texas Southern University poll represents the first nonpartisan look at these races since May 26, when Texas had runoff elections and its slate of candidates was finalized. Since then, the only other surveys for these races have been sponsored by partisan sources, including a pro-Democratic PAC and two Republican candidates.

If we include all polls conducted since May 26, the races tighten up. But even then, the Democratic nominees are outperforming the 2024 presidential margins in all three districts, suggesting that Lone Star State Republicans’ new map isn’t as solid as they expected it to be.

Another thing to keep in mind about the poll is that none of the Democratic nominees have an outright majority (i.e., 51%). Given the districts’ Republican leanings on paper, undecided voters may skew to the right.

At the same time, the Texas gerrymander is heavily based on the myopic belief that Republican gains among Latino voters are solid, if not improving further. This belief stems from Trump’s consistent improvement with Latino voters. In the 2016 presidential election, he lost these voters by 38 points, according to the Pew Research Center. He closed the gap a little in 2020, losing the group by 25 points, then closed it almost entirely in 2024, losing them by just three points.

However, newer data suggests Latinos’ recent support for the GOP is far from solid.

In an average of the first three polls YouGov conducted in Trump’s second term, his net approval rating among Latino voters was -6 points. But across the three most recent polls, it has fallen to -31 points.

Latinos have turned on him more than the broader American public, too. Between the first three surveys of Trump’s second term and the three most recent ones, his average net approval rating has fallen 20 points among all registered voters, but among Latino voters, it’s dropped 25 points.

Other data shows even more of a dropoff. A Pew study released in May found that a large number of Latino Trump voters are souring on him. Ninety-three percent of them approved of the job he was doing as president in February 2025, but that is down to just 66 percenr as of April.

And a July survey from Pew found that 49% Hispanic voters would back the Democratic candidates in their district if the midterm elections were held today. Only 26 percent would back the Republican candidate. (The remainder are not sure or would back another candidate.) That 23-point margin in favor of Democrats is considerably better than the 13-point lead the party held among Hispanic voters in the final YouGov/Economist poll ahead of the 2024 election.

In Texas, Republicans made a bet—and a gerrymander—based on the idea that their gains with Latino voters were solid. But this new poll suggests that bet may not pay off

Reprinted with permission from 'Daily Kos

Does 'Democratic Socialism' Help Candidates To Win Elections? Numbers Say No

Does 'Democratic Socialism' Help Candidates To Win Elections? Numbers Say No

Democratic socialism appears to be ascendant in the Democratic Party, but when it comes to winning elections, is that a good thing?

There is perhaps no more fraught intraparty discussion at the moment. Democratic socialists have notched some impressive primary victories, dethroning an incumbent or two along the way. But most of these have been in dark blue areas, like New York City, or in states like Florida, where Angie Nixon, a democratic socialist who won a Democratic Senate primary this past Tuesday, has very little chance of being elected in November.

In other words, democratic socialists’ victories have typically been in primaries that are not expected to lead to a competitive general election. In contrast, the movement’s most visible recent loss—Francesca Hong in Wisconsin’s Democratic gubernatorial primary—came in a swing state that will be competitive.

In high-stakes races, Democratic primary voters seem aware of jeopardy posed by the public’s largely negative view of socialism. Across 13 polls conducted by YouGov since 2015, the share of Americans who have a favorable view of socialism has never risen above 33 percent. Across every survey, more Americans have held a negative view of it than a positive one.

Americans Generally Don't Like Socialism

As a result, 45 percent of Americans say they would never vote for a self-identified socialist, according to a new YouGov survey. That includes 42 percent of independents and 11 percent of Americans who plan to vote for a Democratic House candidate this year. (For what it’s worth, the numbers don’t change much if pollsters ask about a “democratic socialist” candidate or a “socialist” one.)

Of course, Republicans indiscriminately brand even moderate Democrats as socialists. But does a political candidate embracing the term defuse that line of attack—Yeah, I’m a socialist, so what?—or does it hurt them to pick up a label much of the electorate deems toxic?

Chart by Andrew Mangan, created with DatawrapperSource: YouGov

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The thing is, Americans aren’t always aware a politician is a socialist—even when they call themselves one. Relatively small majorities of Americans correctly identify Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders (61 percent), New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani (54 percent), and New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (51 percent) as democratic socialists, per the new YouGov poll. And roughly a third incorrectly deem former Vice President Kamala Harris (37 percent) and former President Barack Obama (34 percent) to be socialists.

We shouldn’t take too much away from any one race, but Hong’s surprising loss in Wisconsin suggests the “democratic socialist” label weighed her down more than lifted her up. Democratic voters there were indeed worried that a socialist nominee—especially one with deeply unpopular views on Thanksgiving and the police—would help Republicans win the governor’s mansion this fall.

Likewise, William Lawrence, the Democratic nominee in Michigan’s Seventh District, left the Democratic Socialists of America days ahead of his August 4 primary, clearly aware that the affiliation would not help him in a district that President Donald Trump won by one percentage point in 2024. As Lawerence told CNN after winning the primary, he let his membership lapse “because I want to make clear my constituents that I’m here to represent them.”

Clearly, the label poses some jeopardy to the party in competitive races. And in this way, it’s possible that the rise of democratic socialists may slightly worsen the public’s already negative view of the Democratic Party, but there’s also reason to believe their ascendence doesn’t hurt other, non-socialist Democratic candidates all that much. A recent New York Times/Siena University poll found that while 53 percent of voters in battleground Senate races saw the national Democratic Party as “too far to the left,” only 35 percent saw the Democratic Senate candidate in their state the same way.

Of course, both shares might be smaller if democratic socialism were a lower-profile element of the Democratic Party. But that’s hard, if not impossible, to sort out at the moment.There is also a twist to all of this: Voters may be averse to self-branded socialists and “socialism” as a concept, but they often don’t feel the same way about socialist policies.

Sixty-five percent of Americans consider free universal healthcare to be a socialist policy, according to the new YouGov poll. And roughly the same share (64%) also support the concept of Medicare for All, per a recent YouGov/Economist poll.

The same is true for tuition-free college. Sixty-one percent of Americans see it as socialist—and yet 55% support the idea of the government covering the cost of tuition for all college students, according to a YouGov/Economist poll from earlier this summer.Other policies that Americans consider socialist also enjoy broad public support: 69% of Americans support providing more government subsidies for housing, 62% support rent control, and 68% support having publicly owned utility companies.

It seems that even when Americans peg a policy as socialist, that doesn’t stop them from wanting it.

The bigger question is, will the public eventually embrace socialist politicians like it’s embracing many of their policies? We may find out in two short years.

Can Sherrod Brown (And Donald Trump) Flip Red Ohio Back To Blue?

Can Sherrod Brown (And Donald Trump) Flip Red Ohio Back To Blue?

As Ohio goes, so goes the nation. If that old political adage bears out this year, it would be a hell of a problem for the Republican Party. Recent polling shows the state’s Senate and gubernatorial races locked in a dead heat—a shocking development for this reddening state.

The Buckeye State, once a bellwether, has been drifting rapidly toward Republicans. Between 2002 and 2012, the state saw 10 total elections for president, Senate, or governor. Democrats won exactly half of them.

However, in the 10 elections since, Democrats won just once. It came during 2018’s blue wave.


Ohio has become reliably red -- will 2026 change that?

DBut now that red drift may be drifting back.

Democrat Sherrod Brown leads Republican Sen. Jon Husted by three percentage points in an average of the four polls fielded since the state’s May 5 primaries. That said, those polls show a wide range of results, with one from The New York Times/Siena University showing Husted up three points, while another, commissioned by Fox News, shows Brown up by a gobsmacking eight points.


A populist progressive, Brown is Democrats’ dream candidate, having thrice won a Senate seat in the state. While he came up short in his 2024 reelection bid, his performance remains impressive. Losing by less than four points, he fared far better than Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris, who lost by over 11 points.

Husted, who was appointed to fill the remainder of Vice President JD Vance’s term, is a rather anonymous rank-and-file Republican. Twelve percent of Ohio’s likely voters hadn’t heard of him, compared with just three percent who hadn’t heard of Brown, per a recent poll conducted for AARP. This relative obscurity gives Brown the upside of having more room to define Husted for voters ahead of November.

The Cook Political Report rates the race as a toss-up. And now, as of Friday, Cook has shifted its rating of the state’s governor’s race toward Democrats, considering it too a toss-up.

In the gubernatorial race, Democrat Amy Acton leads Republican Vivek Ramaswamy by two points in an average of four polls fielded since May 5. These polls have had less variation than those in the Senate race, with neither candidate leading by more than three points.

Though Acton volunteered for Barack Obama’s 2008 presidential campaign (and hey, he won the state), she cuts something of a nonpartisan image. In 2019, Republican Gov. Mike DeWine tapped her to lead the Ohio Department of Health shortly before the COVID-19 pandemic, which made her a regular fixture of local news updates and earned her a fan club.

As far as inspiring life stories goes, it’s hard to beat Acton’s. She spent part of her childhood homeless and living in a tent with her family in the quintessential Rust Belt city of Youngstown. But she made it out of those hardscrabble circumstances to go to medical school, become a professor at the Ohio State University, and now run for governor.

Meanwhile, Ramaswamy faces unique hurdles. Born in America to Indian immigrants, he is facing hideous racism from the MAGA movement he considers himself part of. In May’s Republican primary, his no-name opponent picked up 18 percent of the vote after directly attacking Ramaswamy’s Indian heritage and espousing “blood and soil” rhetoric popular with neo-Nazis.

Ramaswamy is also a conspiracy theorist. As is unfortunately common among Republicans, he has falsely declared the Jauary. 6, 2021, insurrection at the U.S. Capitol to be “an inside job” and that Trump won the 2020 presidential election. But his tinfoil-hat thinking goes a step further. He has promoted 9/11 trutherism as well as the racist “great replacement theory,” which falsely posits there is a secret plot to bring immigrants of color into the U.S. to diminish the power of white people.

A Big Pharma billionaire, Ramaswamy is also a poor fit for an election year in which high prices and healthcare are Americans’ top-two issues. Not to mention that he teamed up with Elon Musk, the world’s richest man, to conceptualize President Donald Trump’s so-called Department of Government Efficiency—only to bail, or get kicked out, just before the agency started firing thousands of civil servants and hobbling critical agencies.


And that brings us to the reason Ohio has suddenly become competitive: one Donald J. Trump.

Among adult citizens in Ohio, Trump’s approval rating is 20 points underwater, according to data from The Economist. That’s in line with his dismal national approval rating (-23 points)—but that is very bad news for Republicans in a state as red as Ohio, which Trump won by just over 11 points in 2024.

That 31-point difference between Trump’s approval and his 2024 result means Ohio has been harsher on his job performance than in most states Trump won.


Trump’s policies have hit Ohio especially hard. Due to higher prices for gas, electricity, and consumer goods, the average household in the state has had to pay $2,175 more since he took office, according to a new study from the left-leaning Center for American Progress. Across all 50 states, Ohio has seen the 13th-highest added costs, and across states Trump won in 2024, it’s seen the seventh-highest.

Worse, for a family of four on an Affordable Care Act healthcare plan, that added cost rises by about $1,500, to $3,688 since Trump retook the White House.

This fall, if Brown and/or Acton prevail in their races, it will no doubt be a result of the hard work they’ve put in and the voters they’ve excited. But they will have also gotten a key, if inadvertent, boost from a certain man in Washington.

Reprinted with permission from Daily Kos

Vibes Off: Trump's Tacky Birthday Celebration For America Is Historic Cringe

Vibes Off: Trump's Tacky Birthday Celebration For America Is Historic Cringe

In his second term, Donald Trump scored one of the biggest gimmes in presidential history: His term included America’s 250th birthday. How easy it should have been to unite the nation—at least a little, at least briefly—under a common star-spangled banner.

Instead, he has failed to find popular support for the key events in his semiquincentennial project.

Only 51 percent of voters report being “extremely” or “very” excited for America’s 250th anniversary, according to a poll conducted for Fox News. That’s about the same as the share of Americans who celebrated the Fourth of July last year, per YouGov data.

Chart by Andrew Mangan/Source: Fox News/Beacon Research/Shaw and Company ResearchCreated with Datawrapper

Excitement isn’t matching the occasion, and Trump is the most to blame. He doesn’t know how to throw a party.

Take the UFC fight. On June 14, on a stage on the White House’s South Lawn, men bloodied each other across seven bouts of mixed martial arts. Trump watched the entire show, despite his penchant for sleeping through or dipping out early from other sporting events.

By and large, though, Americans didn’t care. Only 26 percent told YouGov they were interested in watching the fight. Meanwhile, 67% weren’t interested, including 53 percent who were “not at all interested.” As much as they did care, a majority of Americans (51%) disapproved of the fight being held at all, another YouGov survey found. Only 27 percernt approved.

An average of 7 million Americans streamed the fight. Though that may be a live-event record for Paramount+, it’s only about 18 percent of the live domestic viewership of Netflix’s 2024 boxing match between Mike Tyson and Jake Paul.

Such paltry numbers shouldn’t surprise anyone. MMA, which the late Arizona Sen. John McCain once derided as “human cockfighting,” is tied with wrestling for the least-popular sport in America, according to a 2025 YouGov poll. The UFC itself has the second-worst favorability of any major U.S. sports organization, after the WWE. And YouGov finds that only 38 percent of Americans know who the sport’s most well-known contemporary personality is (Anderson Silva). Compare that with tennis, which isn’t much more popular in the U.S., and yet 81 percent of Americans know of Venus Williams.

Chart by Andrew Mangan/Source YouGovCreated with Datawrapper

Larry David, the famed TV writer and co-creator of “Seinfeld,” summed up many Americans’ take on the fight, telling Variety on Tuesday, “It was embarrassing. I was embarrassed to be an American.”

And yet the fight may not have been Trump’s biggest misstep on the march toward July 4. After all, at least “UFC Freedom 250” happened. The same isn’t true for the planned concert from Freedom 250—which is the White House initiative working independently of the bipartisan America 250 effort. Trump was forced to cancel that show after nearly all the acts dropped out.

But even if that concert had gone on as planned, it would have been a dud. Roughly 60 percent of Americans hadn’t heard of three of the nine announced acts, per YouGov. Only two—one-hit wonder Vanilla Ice and 1980s funk group Commodores—were known by at least two-thirds of Americans.

Chart by Andrew Mangan/ Source YouGovCreated with Datawrapper

In August, the “Freedom 250 Grand Prix” is scheduled to take place on the streets of Washington, but its viewership may prove less impressive than that of the UFC fight. May’s Indianapolis 500, IndyCar’s centerpiece race, was watched by an average of just 6.6 million viewers. If the D.C. race manages to top that, it may be due to pure gawk factor alone. Our nation’s capital, now the trashy site of car racing and cage fights.

Americans just aren’t hungry for what Trump is slinging. The vast majority (71 percent) say small local events feel like a more authentic way to commemorate the occasion, while just 30 percent prefer large national events, according to a recent Elon University poll.

Every vibe is off. His “Great American State Fair,” launched on Thursday, featured empty chairs in place of some state exhibits.

Instead of enjoyable schlock like the nation gobbled up in 1976, we’re faced with ephemera like the single ugliest shirt in human history, some dead ducks at the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool, and a proposed $250 bill with Trump’s mug on it. Though the creation of that currently illegal banknote would require an act of Congress, the president’s top lackeys are pushing for it. Of course, Americans hate the idea: Only 16 percet favor creating the Trump-emblazoned bill, while 70 percent oppose it, per a recent YouGov/Economist poll.

But the $250 bill, as with the events, signifies the core problem: Not only are his marquee events unpopular, they are less a celebration of America than a celebration of himself. After all, in lieu of a big concert this past Wednesday, Trump hosted a Trump rally.

It’s no wonder only 37 percent of Americans told Elon University that America’s 250th anniversary is likely to “bring people together.”

More than anyone in recent history, Trump has degraded America’s view of itself. Between 2001 and 2016, the share of Americans who said they were “extremely” or “very” proud to be an American didn’t dip below 81 percent, according to Gallup. But from 2017 to 2020—spanning Trump’s first term—each year set a new low, slipping to 63 percent in the last full year of that term.

After Trump left the White House, American pride rebounded slightly, hovering in the mid to high 60s. But last year, in the first year of his second term, it plunged to yet another new low: 58 percent.

Chart by Andrew Mangan/Source GallupCreated with Datawrapper

While 65 percent of baby boomers see being American as key to their identity, 58 percent of both millennials and Gen Zers don’t think about that piece of their identity much, a recent Ipsos poll finds. Maybe younger Americans’ sense of national identity will strengthen as they age, but it just as easily may not—especially if these greenest members of our workforce struggle to attain the “American dream.” Only 34 percent of Americans see that dream as currently attainable, according to a poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. A majority (51 percent) say that dream was once true but is no longer.

And the less that people approve of how Trump is handling his job as president, the less they are interested in celebrating the big 250. A new Marquette University Law School poll finds that while 88 percent of Americans who “strongly approve” of Trump are interested in the occasion, that is shared by only 39 percent of those who “strongly disapprove” of him.

The country is divided and hurting, and the unpopular guy who helped to divide it and hurt it is throwing a big party headlined by events most of the nation has little interest in.

Woo-hoo?

Reprinted with permission from Daily Kos


Democrats In Iowa, Alaska And Georgia Eye Governor's Mansions (And Just May Win)

Democrats In Iowa, Alaska And Georgia Eye Governor's Mansions (And Just May Win)

In Iowa, Republicans face a potential bruising that could leave the red state looking pretty purple after November.

Once a bellwether, Iowa has jagged to the right recently. In 2024, Donald Trump won it by over 13 percentage points, making for the state’s largest margin of victory in a presidential election since 1972. And two years before that, in 2022, it reelected Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds by over 18 points.

In a normal election year, a Democrat would likely have little chance of winning the keys to Terrace Hill, the governor’s official residence. But with Trump’s war of choice in the Middle East and domestic prices climbing, this isn’t shaping up to be a normal election year. In fact, Iowa’s governor race may prove to be something of a bellwether for state executives across the nation.

In the Hawkeye State, presumptive Democratic nominee Rob Sand, the state auditor, is handily leading Republican front-runner Randy Feenstra, who represents Iowa’s Fourth Congressional District. A recent poll conducted by Echelon Insights for NetChoice found Sand with 51 percent support among likely voters, while Feenstra scored just 39 percent.

Better yet, Sand’s support appears more solid. While 12 percent of voters said they would “probably” support either candidate, 39 percent said they would “definitely” back Sand, and just 24 percent said the same about their support for Feenstra.

This aligns with the only other public survey released so far this year. In late March, pollster GBAO, working on behalf of a group of moderate Democrats, found Sand leading Feenstra by eight points, 50 to 42 percent.

Trump 2.0 has battered Iowa, making it ripe for Democrats’ picking. In April 2025, the president’s tariffs led China to cut off soybean imports from the U.S., delivering disproportionate harm on Iowa, a top grower of the crop. While China has resumed imports, Iowans are still struggling. The state is one of only three that saw its per-capita personal income contract in the fourth quarter of 2025.

The broader Republican brand appears to be hurting as well. Trump’s job approval in Iowa is 14 points underwater, according to The Economist. And Reynolds is one of only two governors to have a net-negative approval rating, per Morning Consult.

The only governor with a similarly bad rap? Alaska’s Mike Dunleavy, also a Republican.

Dunleavy is term-limited from running again, but you wouldn’t expect a state that Trump won by 13 points in 2024—and that has only once in its history backed a Democrat for the presidency—to be competitive this year.

And yet.

A recent poll from Alaska Survey Center shows Democrat Tom Begich, a state representative, prevailing with nearly 54 percent of the vote in the final round of ranked-choice voting, the state’s electoral system wherein voters rank the candidates rather than select only one.

Begich’s support appears to be growing as well. The pollster’s survey from this past October showed him winning just over 50 percent of the final vote.

Even if Begich were to lose by a narrow margin, the result would be shocking. A Democratic gubernatorial candidate hasn’t won better than 45 percent of the vote since 1998, when the state last elected a Democrat to the position. And in 2022, Dunleavy won reelection by 26 points, though that margin of victory is artificially high due to him facing two high-profile challengers.

Begich is surely benefitting from his family name. His father, Nick Begich Sr., was the state’s representative in the early 1970s before his presumed death in a plane crash. (His body was never recovered.) Tom’s brother, Mark, was the state’s Democratic senator from 2009 to 2015, and his nephew is Nick Begich III, the state’s Republican congressman, who is running for reelection this year.

From the Last Frontier, we roll down to the Peach State, where polling shows that former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms has a real shot at flipping Georgia’s governor’s mansion. The Echelon Insights/NetChoice poll finds her polling ahead of both Republican front-runners—Lt. Gov. Burt Jones and healthcare executive Rick Jackson—by six points each.

Bottoms has a clear lead in the Democratic primary, but Jones and Jackson are neck-and-neck on the Republican side, according to FiftyPlusOne’s polling average. However, if state Secretary of State Brad Raffensberger, who is polling third, were to eke out a win, Bottoms would face even steeper competition. The same poll finds her up only 2 points over Raffensberger.

A Democrat leading polling in Georgia may not come as a shocker. After all, the state has two Democratic senators, and it backed Joe Biden for president in 2020.

However, those are at the federal level, and state government is another matter. A Democrat has not won a top executive role in Georgia—governor, lieutenant governor, attorney general, or secretary of state—since 2006. That’s a flip of the phenomena in which red states tend to be more open to electing Democrats to state office than to federal office (see: Kansas and Kentucky).

In other red states, polling has shown Democratic gubernatorial candidates lagging their Republican rivals, though sometimes not by much.

In Ohio, another ex-bellwether, Democratic nominee Amy Acton is just 5 points behind Republican nominee Vivek Ramaswamy in the Echelon Insights/NetChoice poll. Two other recent polls have had them in a virtual tie. For context, in 2022, Republican Gov. Mike DeWine won by 25 points.

And while Florida may generally seem out of Democrats’ reach, most recent surveys show the top two Democratic candidates—Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings and former Republican (you read that right) Rep. David Jolly—trailing the Republican front-runner, Rep. Byron Donalds, by single digits. That’s surprising given that Gov. Ron DeSantis won a blowout 19-point victory just four years ago, and no Democrat has won the governorship since 1994, though some have come very close.

The pain of Trump 2.0 and chronic Republican mismanagement are rattling the foundations of governors’ mansions the nation over. And if these polls are to be believed, many red-state voters want Democrats to come in and clean up the mess.

Reprinted with permission from Daily Kos


Ron DeSantis

Virginia Redistricting: The Case For Democratic Gerrymandering

Virginia is for lovers—of democracy.

On Tuesday, Virginians will vote on whether to temporarily suspend the state’s bipartisan redistricting commission and allow Democrats to redraw its congressional map. Polls suggest the ballot measure will pass. And if that happens, Republicans would likely lose four House seats, leaving them with just one of the state’s 11. That makes for just nine percent of seats in a state where the GOP regularly wins about 44 percent of the statewide popular vote.

Put simply, Virginia will go from having a very fair map to a very biased one. So how is that good for democracy? Because Republicans have rigged maps across the country for decades, skewing the House’s overall partisan makeup, and Virginia’s proposed map would be merely a minor corrective.

In general, congressional delegations tend to be biased in Republicans’ favor. Among states with at least five House seats, there are five where Republicans regularly receive less than 50 percent of the statewide vote but hold a majority of that state’s House delegation: Arizona, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

There is not one state where the same is true for Democrats.

Most House maps are skewed to benefit Republicans

The difference between the Republican Party's share of a state's current House seats and the party's average share of that state's vote in recent statewide elections, among states with at least five seats

Statewide elections used in the average include the 2016, 2020, and 2024 presidential elections, as well as the state's most recent Senate election and gubernatorial election. Special elections are excluded. For states with ranked choice voting, the most recent election with a Republican and a Democrat in the final round of voting is used.Table: Andrew ManganSource: Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections; House of Representatives/Created with Datawrapper

The worst offender may be Wisconsin. Republicans hold 75 percent of the Badger State’s House districts but have won an average of just 48 percent of the vote in the state’s past three presidential elections and its most recent Senate race and gubernatorial race. At least in Virginia, Democrats routinely win a majority of the statewide vote.

Wisconsin’s skewed map is the result of more than a decade of Republican graft, and its effects have been especially egregious in years when Democrats have scored sizable statewide victories. In 2012, then-President Barack Obama won the state by seven percentage points, and Democrat Tammy Baldwin won her Senate race by nearly six points, but the Democratic Party picked up only three of the state’s eight House seats. In the other five districts, every Republican won their race by more than 11 points, showing that Democrats never stood a chance there.

The GOP is proud of their electoral manipulation—and they want to do more of it. In 2022, Republican gubernatorial candidate Tim Michels said at a campaign event, “Republicans will never lose another election in Wisconsin after I’m elected governor.” (Luckily, he lost to Democratic Gov. Tony Evers.)

North Carolina is a stranger case. Republicans hold 10 of 14 House seats, or 71 percent, despite pulling in only 48 percent of the vote in recent statewide elections. The thing is, until very recently, the Tar Heel State had a fair map.

Ahead of the 2022 midterms, the North Carolina Supreme Court ruled that the state’s map violated the law, and forced the adoption of a court-drawn map that resulted in an even split: seven Republicans, seven Democrats. A fair and honest map, no doubt. However, that fall, conservatives won a majority on that court, allowing the Republican-led state legislature to ram through a gerrymander that advantaged them in 10 House seats. And last year, the legislature made the map worse, likely stealing another seat from Democrats this November.

Which brings us back to Old Dominion.

Throughout the past year, GOP-led states took on the highly unusual project of mid-decade redistricting. North Carolina, Ohio, Missouri, and Texas all passed maps that are expected to tear a total of nine seats away from Democrats. But redrawn maps in California and Utah (on a judge’s order) should give Democrats six other seats. Virginia’s proposed map, if it goes into effect, would likely bring that up to 10.

This would render President Donald Trump’s midterm-stealing project a wash.

Mid-decade redistricting has produced incredibly skewed maps

The difference between the Republican Party's project share of a state's House districts and the party's average share of that state's vote in recent statewide elections, among states that completed mid-decade redistricting, plus Virginia

StateHouse seatsProjected GOP seatsProjected GOP share of seatsGOP's avg. statewide voteNew map's skew
North Carolina141178.6%48.2%R+30.3
Missouri8787.5%57.2%R+30.3
Ohio151280.0%54.3%R+25.7
Texas383078.9%53.6%R+25.4
Utah4375.0%55.1%R+19.9
California5247.7%37.2%D+29.5
Virginia*1119.1%44.4%D+35.3

* Virginia's map is not in effect. The projections on this table are based on a proposed map, which may go into effect only if voters approve a ballot measure on April 21, 2026.

That is, unless Florida also redistricts. Gov. Ron DeSantis has set a special session to begin on April 28, in which the legislature will consider further tilting the state’s gerrymander against Democrats. The GOP could draw a map to flip up to five Democratic-held seats. The trouble is, such a move would risk watering down red districts too much, which could backfire in a wave election, leading Democrats to win seats they otherwise would not. As such, state Republicans have been hesitant to act.

Whatever transpires, the Sunshine State’s map is already heavily biased. Republicans control 71 percent of its House districts but win only 54 percent of the statewide vote on average.

Of course, Democrats gerrymander too. Massachusetts and Connecticut have a combined 14 House seats, and Republicans hold not one seat in either, though their party regularly wins at least a third of the statewide vote. (The reverse is true in Oklahoma, where the GOP holds all five House seats, despite the fact that it wins just 63 percent of the statewide vote on average.)

The big difference is that only one party—the Democratic Party—is pushing to eliminate partisan gerrymandering altogether.

In March 2019, the House’s freshly minted Democratic majority passed the For the People Act. The bill sought to ban partisan gerrymandering nationwide, in addition to expanding voting rights and curtailing the influence of money in politics. Democrats saw these as their top priorities, bestowing the bill the honor of “H.R. 1,” which means it was the first introduced in the new session of Congress. No Republicans voted for it, and the Republican-controlled Senate refused to even bring it up for a vote.

The bill passed a Democratic-controlled House again, in 2021. Again, it was the party’s H.R. 1, and again, no House Republicans voted for it. Democrats ran the Senate that year but lacked the 60 votes necessary to pass it there.

Joe Manchin, at the time a Democratic senator from West Virginia, persuaded the party to dilute the bill in an effort to get bipartisan backing. The new bill, named the Freedom to Vote Act, would have implemented some voter-ID requirements but would have nevertheless expanded drastically ballot access and ended partisan gerrymandering. When it came up for a vote in the Senate, not one Republican supported it.

Democrats in the House and Senate have continued to introduce the Freedom to Vote Act in subsequent sessions of Congress, but with at least one chamber in the GOP’s hands following the 2022 midterms, it’s gone nowhere.

And it’s not as if the public is divided on the issue. Only nine percent of Americans think partisan gerrymandering should be legal, according to a YouGov poll from August. For context, that’s on par with the amount who believe that Bigfoot “definitely” exists.

Partisan gerrymandering is overwhelmingly unpopular

The share of U.S. adult citizens who think partisan gerrymandering should be legal or illegal

Survey conducted Aug. 1-3, 2025, among 1,116 U.S. adult citizens, with a margin of error of ±4 percentage points. Figures may not total 100% due to rounding.Chart: Andrew ManganSource: YouGov/Created with Datawrapper

Americans hate map-rigging, no matter the reason. The poll also finds that only 1 in 3 Americans says it is fair for states to gerrymander in response to other states doing it—i.e., what Virginia is doing this year.

It makes sense, too. Gerrymandering is deeply unfair at the state level. If Virginia allows Democrats to redraw the state map, Republican voters there will have a weaker voice in Congress than they would in a fair world.

But this is not a fair world. National Democrats are trying to give Americans the fair House elections they want, and Republicans are stopping it. Until gerrymandering is banned across the country, Democrats should make full use of the tools they have at their disposal.

Reprinted with permission from Daily Kos


Americans hate map-rigging, no matter the reason. The poll also finds that only 1 in 3 Americans says it is fair for states to gerrymander in response to other states doing it—i.e., what Virginia is doing this year.

It makes sense, too. Gerrymandering is deeply unfair at the state level. If Virginia allows Democrats to redraw the state map, Republican voters there will have a weaker voice in Congress than they would in a fair world.

But this is not a fair world. National Democrats are trying to give Americans the fair House elections they want, and Republicans are stopping it. Until gerrymandering is banned across the country, Democrats should make full use of the tools they have at their disposal.

Any updates?

  • Trump certainly sees China as our enemy, but Americans are warming to the nation. The Pew Research Center finds that 27% of Americans have a favorable view of China, up from a low of 14% in 2023. Funny thing is, that share has risen while the share that thinks Trump can capably deal with China has fallen. Sixty percent of Americans are not confident he can make good decisions regarding China, up from 49% in June 2024.
  • As the Trump administration lends a helping hand to our worst polluters, Americans are more negative than ever on the quality of the environment. Just 35% of Americans rate the quality of the environment in the U.S. as good or excellent, per Gallup. Who knew that aiding polluters would make our air and water worse?

Vibe check

As America becomes a hellscape, it makes sense people might turn toward God. What is surprising, though, is how abruptly that has happened with one group that’s typically the least religious: young men.

A new survey from Gallup finds that 42% of men ages 18 to 29 rate religion as “very important” to their lives, up from 28% in the previous round of polling. Those figures reflect two-year-averages, with the new share dating to 2024-2025 and the older share to 2022-2023.

It also marks the highest level of religiosity among young men since 2000-2001 (43%).

Historically, young women have been much more religious than young men. In the 13 rounds of data released by Gallup, young women have led young men 11 times. And their lead has often been quite large. In 2002-2003, young women were 16 points more religious than young men. And on average across all years, they’ve led men by 9 points.

Notably, young women continue their slide in religiosity. The latest round of data shows just 29% consider religion very important to them, a figure that’s tied with 2020-2021 for their all-time low.

The 14-point jump among young men also marks the largest increase between data periods among any age group of men and women. The closest change came among men ages 65 and older, whose religiosity fell 13 points between 2008-2009 and 2010-2011.

Turns out, all those Christ-fluencers on TikTok really are winning converts.

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The share of U.S. adult citizens who think partisan gerrymandering should be legal or illegal

Should be legalNot sureShould be illegalAll U.S. adult citizens9%22%69%Democrats7%13%80%Independents6%24%69%Republicans14%29%57%Survey conducted Aug. 1-3, 2025, among 1,116 U.S. adult citizens, with a margin of error of ±4 percentage points. Figures may not total 100% due to rounding.Chart: Andrew ManganSource: YouGovCreated with Datawrapper