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House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi spoke to CNN this week about the Democrats’ chances of regaining control of the House of Representatives. “We have been saying there are three important issues in this campaign and, in alphabetical order, they are Medicare, Medicare and Medicare,” she told State of the Union‘s Candy Crowley.

“On August 11, when Governor Romney chose Ryan, that was the pivotal day,” Pelosi said. “That was the day things really changed. We were on a path — I would have said we were dead even — and now the momentum is with us.”

Pelosi answered Crowley’s hypothetical question about the Republicans retaining control of the House along with a victory for President Obama in November with a warning. “It’s really important for the public to know that the obstruction of President Obama — and President Obama’s jobs bills and whatever he was advancing — their obstruction is their agenda.”

And when asked whether she could work with Mitt Romney if he were elected, Pelosi replied, “Mitt Romney is not going President of the United States.” Laughing, she added, “Everybody knows that, right?”

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House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, left, and former President Donald Trump.

Photo by Kevin McCarthy (Public domain)

In the professional stratum of politics, few verities are treated with more reverence than the outcome of next year's midterm, when the Republican Party is deemed certain to recapture majorities in the House and Senate. With weary wisdom, any pol or pundit will cite the long string of elections that buttress this prediction.

Political history also tells us that many factors can influence an electoral result, including a national crisis or a change in economic conditions — in other words, things can change and even midterm elections are not entirely foretold. There have been a few exceptions to this rule, too.

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