Images of Latinos lining up to vote have shaken Trump back to reality. He sees voters being allowed to vote because they arrived in line before the polls closed as “rigged.”
If Trump loses Nevada, based on early voting numbers, Silver says he wins in only nine percent of scenarios. That’s a far cry from the 35 percent mark he reached in FiveThirtyEight’s latest estimate.
The problem with a data-driven approach is, when it comes to primaries, the fundamentals are not nearly as well understood or as predictive as they are in general elections.