Tag: peso
No Brexit: Global Markets, Currencies, And Stocks Break Fall Amid Uncertainty

No Brexit: Global Markets, Currencies, And Stocks Break Fall Amid Uncertainty

By Marc Jones

LONDON (Reuters) – The U.S. dollar, Mexican peso and world stocks fell on Wednesday as Donald Trump swept to victory in the U.S. presidential election, but fears of a Brexit-style shock that wiped trillions off global markets has failed to materialize so far.

As the Wall Street open neared, European shares were down less than 1 percent and traders were returning to other markets that had been sent into a tailspin as it became clear Trump was set for a dramatic victory over Democrat Hillary Clinton. [.EU]

Investors fear his victory could cause global economic and trade turmoil and years of policy unpredictability, which among other things could discourage the Federal Reserve from raising interest rates in December as long expected.

“I love this country,” Trump said in a victory speech in New York. “America will no longer settle for anything less than the best … We have a great economic plan, we will double our growth and have the strongest economy in the world.”

Pledges by Trump that he would also forge strong relations with other big nations helped ease concerns of heavy tariffs being slapped on selling to the United States and a starkly more aggressive geopolitical attitude.

Safe-haven sovereign bonds, the Japanese yen and gold were all giving back ground fast having surged in Asian trading as the election results had come in and, as in the case of the Brexit vote in June, proved polls and betting markets woefully wrong.

Overnight in Asia, Sean Callow, a forex strategist at Westpac, had said the market reaction had been “as though the four horsemen of the apocalypse just rode out of Trump Tower”.

But the mood in European trade was far more measured.

“The equity markets has rebounded quite a long way so my view is that we have a couple of forces in play,” said JP Morgan Asset Management’s head of multi asset strategy, John Bilton.

“One is that markets are trying to figure out what this might mean and another force which is, if we do get this type of infrastructure spending and tax cuts that have been mooted, maybe that gives the economy a bit of a boost.”

The 0.6 percent dip in European stocks was nowhere near as bad as the 4 percent plunge futures markets had indicated and the near 9 percent slump they initially suffered after the UK Brexit vote.

Mexico’s peso also bounced 4 percent, off a record low it had hit overnight – though it was still down an eye-watering 8.5 percent as emerging markets bore the brunt of the impact.

Trump’s threats to rip up a free trade agreement with Mexico and tax money sent home by migrants to pay for building a wall on the southern U.S. border have made the peso particularly reactive to events in the race for the White House.

“A lot of Trump’s negative geopolitical rhetoric was concentrated around Mexico and trade with Mexico and tearing up the NAFTA agreement, so the peso just become this natural barometer of the election,” said Deutsche Bank strategist Gautam Kalani. “What happens now though is all up in the air.”

A wealthy real-estate developer and former reality TV host, Trump rode a wave of anger toward Washington insiders to win the White House race against Clinton, the Democratic candidate whose gold-plated establishment resume included stints as a first lady, U.S. senator, and secretary of state.

Markets had favored Clinton as a status quo candidate who would be considered a safe pair of hands at home on the world stage. Analysts had no such certainty about Trump whose powers will be bolstered by the Republican’s control of the Senate.

U.S. stock futures were pointing to a drop of just under 2 percent for Wall Street when it reopens later, less than half the 5 percent they had been suggesting in Asian trade.

The 46-country MSCI ‘All World’ index was down just 0.8 percent and, although Wall Street’s expected drop will add to the fall, so far at least there have been over 25 worse days for the index this year.

As FX markets reeled in the initial Asian fright, South Korean authorities were thought to have intervened to steady their currency, and dealers wondered if central banks globally would step in to calm nerves.

Japan’s top currency diplomat signaled Tokyo’s readiness to intervene if necessary as the surging yen threatened to snuff out its fragile economic recovery.

The scale of the scare was clearest in the Mexican peso, which plunged more than 13 percent against the dollar at one point in the biggest daily move in two decades.

The risk of a global trade war likewise knocked other currencies across Asia, with the Australian dollar leading the rout.

The story had been very different against the safe-haven yen, with the U.S. dollar shedding as much as 3.3 percent to 101.85 yen and around 2 percent on the euro before the market changed direction.

That U-turn left both were well of their highs by 0807 ET, at 104.18 yen and $1.1009 for the euro.

Asian stocks, which had closed before Trump’s victory speech spoke of the need to strengthen the United States and keep global relations, showed the day’s biggest dents.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific stocks outside Japan ended down 2.3 percent and the Nikkei in Tokyo closing down 5.4 percent. It lost almost 9 percent after the UK Brexit vote.

Sovereign bonds whipsawed, with yields on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes initially flying down as much as 12 basis points to 1.75 percent – again the largest drop since the Brexit vote – only to climb back up to 1.96 percent in Europe.

Fed fund futures had toyed with the idea of a cut in rates next year at one point though they were back again to pricing at least a 50 percent chance of a December hike.

It was still seen as a possibility that the Bank of Japan and European Central Bank might be forced to ease policy further.

“We are definitely prepared to intervene in an emergency,” one of the ECB’s longest-standing members, Ewald Nowotny, told reporters in Vienna. “What that will really look like, we must wait and see.”

In commodity markets, safe-haven gold saw big swings as well, climbing 3.5 percent to $1,320 an ounce as the dollar slid, but then backsliding to around $1,300.

There was a screeching U-turn from oil too. U.S. crude bounced over $2 to $45.12 a barrel, while Brent jumped back to $45.50 barrel having been as low as $44.40.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said he was ready to fully restore ties with the United States following Trump’s victory.

(Additional reporting by Wayne Cole in Sydney; Editing by Pravin Char)

IMAGE: A trader at the Frankfurt stock exchange reacts in Frankfurt, Germany, November 9, 2016.   REUTERS/Kai Pfaffenbach

Stock Futures, U.S. Dollar, Oil Prices Plunge As Markets Recoil From Trump

Stock Futures, U.S. Dollar, Oil Prices Plunge As Markets Recoil From Trump

By Wayne Cole

SYDNEY (Reuters) – The U.S. dollar sank and stocks plummeted as mayhem came to world markets on Wednesday as investors faced the possibility of a shock win by Republican Donald Trump that could upend the global political order.

Every new TV network projection in the U.S. presidential election showed the race to be far closer than anyone had thought, sending investors stampeding to safe-haven assets.

Sovereign bonds and gold surged while the Mexican peso went into near free-fall as stations gave North Carolina to Trump.

“Markets are reacting as though the four horsemen of the apocalypse just rode out of Trump Tower,” said Sean Callow, a forex strategist at Westpac in Sydney.

“Or at least 3 of them – it might be 4 when the prospect of a clean sweep of Congress sinks in.”

As of 0425 GMT, Trump was leading Democratic rival Hillary Clinton by 19 Electoral College votes, with a tally of 228-209, with several key battleground states yet to be decided. It takes 270 to win.

U.S. stock futures recoiled more than 4.5 percent, matching the carnage that followed the British vote to leave the European Union in June that wiped trillions of dollars of value off global markets.

Investors fear a Trump victory could cause global economic and trade turmoil, discouraging the Federal Reserve from raising interest rates in December as long expected.

Fed fund futures were even starting to toy with the idea of a cut in rates next year <0#FF:> and it was possible the Bank of Japan and European Central Bank might be forced to ease policy further.

South Korean authorities were thought to have intervened to steady their currency, and dealers were wondering if central banks globally would step in to calm nerves.

The scale of the scare was clear in the Mexican peso, which plunged more than 12 percent against the dollar in the biggest daily move in two decades.

“There’s a lot of panic in the market, it is definitely an outcome it was not expecting,” said Juan Carlos Alderete, a strategist at Banorte-IXE.

The peso has become a touchstone for sentiment on the election as Trump’s trade policies are seen as damaging to its export-heavy economy.

But the story was very different against the safe-haven yen, with the dollar shedding 3.5 percent to 101.70 yen. The euro jumped 2.2 percent to $1.1265.

Graphic of live election results: http://tmsnrt.rs/2fxyZV0

Graphic of live market reaction: http://tmsnrt.rs/2fXfo0L

Live Coverage: http://live.reuters.com/event/election_2016

MAXIMUM UNCERTAINTY

Asian stocks skidded, with MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific stocks outside Japan down 2.5 percent and the Nikkei off nearly 4 percent.

With voting completed in more than two-thirds of the 50 U.S. states, the race was still too close to call in Iowa, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire, states that could be vital to deciding who wins the presidency.

Fox News projected Trump had taken Florida and North Carolina, and projected Clinton would win Virginia.

Markets have tended to favor Clinton as a status quo candidate who would be considered a safe pair of hands at home on the world stage.

“In contrast, a Trump victory would trigger massive uncertainty that would likely undermine risk assets at least initially, which in turn could preclude a Fed rate hike this year,” warned Michelle Girard, chief U.S. economist at RBS.

Sovereign bonds flew ahead, pushing yields on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes down a huge 13 basis points to 1.74 percent, again the largest drop since Brexit.

Yields had briefly touched a six-month high around 1.8960 percent in early trade.

In commodity markets, gold climbed 3.4 percent to $1,318 an ounce as the dollar slid.

Oil turned tail on concerns over the global economic outlook, with U.S. crude shedding $1.34 to $43.63 a barrel, while Brent fell $1.24 to $44.80. [O/R]

(Reporting by Wayne Cole; Editing by Kim Coghill & Shri Navaratnam)