The National  Memo Logo

Smart. Sharp. Funny. Fearless.

Monday, December 09, 2019 {{ new Date().getDay() }}

The conventional wisdom among political pundits regarding the 2014 midterm elections is that Democrats are going to get hammered at the polls because of the unpopularity of the Affordable Care Act. But according to a new Quinnipiac survey of American voters, Republicans may have to do more then campaign against Obamacare to ensure a victory in 2014. The poll suggests that the minimum wage — a hallmark of many Democratic campaigns — may well swing support to candidates who are in favor of raising it.

According to the poll, 50 percent of Americans are more likely to vote for a candidate who supports a minimum-wage increase. This number is higher, for example, than the 40 percent who say they are less likely to vote for a candidate who supports the Affordable Care Act.

Similarly, support for a minimum-wage increase is greater than the percentage of voters who oppose the Democratic plan for immigration reform. According to the poll, 39 percent are less likely to back a candidate who supports a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants, while 29 percent say they are more likely to vote for a candidate who supports the measure.

This all suggests that the minimum wage makes a solid issue for Democrats to campaign on, while distancing themselves from some of the more unpopular initiatives of the Obama administration.

Tim Malloy, assistant director of Quinnipiac’s polling institute, explained what this means for Democratic congressional candidates seeking election in 2014. “Congressional candidates [had] better watch out for the mines as they step into Obamacare and immigration, but supporting a higher minimum wage looks like an easy issue,” Malloy said.

Riding President Obama’s coattails may also prove to be dangerous on foreign policy issues. This was President Obama’s least popular area in the poll, but the issues mattered deeply to voters — 80 percent of voters are either “deeply concerned” or “somewhat concerned” that the situation in Ukraine could lead to a larger regional conflict that involves the United States. To make matters worse for Democrats, 55 percent of voters gave President Obama a negative rating on foreign policy issues, while just 39 percent view his foreign policy decisions favorably.

The poll, which surveyed 1,578 registered voters in the United States, was conducted from March 26-31 and has a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percentage points.

Photo: pbarcas via Flickr

Advertising

Start your day with National Memo Newsletter

Know first.

The opinions that matter. Delivered to your inbox every morning

Judge Alexis G. Krot

Judge Alexis G. Krot shouted at Burhan Chowdhury, a 72 year old cancer patient whom local police cited for not maintaining his yard. “If I could give you jail time on this I would,” the Michigan jurist warned Chowdhury.

A cancer diagnosis doesn’t buy much more leniency in other courtrooms. In 2020, a judge in Pennsylvania sentenced Ashley Menser, a 36 year old in need of a hysterectomy for ovarian and cervical cancer, to a 10 month term.

Keep reading... Show less

Donald Trump, left, and Joe Biden

Photo by Andrea Widburg

America's political media — and especially our "punditocracy" — suffer from myriad defects. They love simple answers and often seem hostile to complexity. They tend to obsess slavishly over the latest polling data. And they suffer from a chronic amnesia that erases not only historical context but even very recent events from their narrow minds.

Marking the end of President Joe Biden's first year in office, the media consensus followed a predictable and familiar framing. After 12 months, with the coronavirus pandemic continuing, his legislative agenda incomplete and his approval ratings in steep decline, Biden was all but declared a failure — with no clear way forward.

Keep reading... Show less
x
{{ post.roar_specific_data.api_data.analytics }}