The National  Memo Logo

Smart. Sharp. Funny. Fearless.

Monday, December 09, 2019 {{ new Date().getDay() }}

Of all of the bad polling data that Republicans have seen over the past few weeks, this may be the most troubling.

According to a new Reuters/Ipsos poll, Mitt Romney’s support among voters over the age of 60 has collapsed from a 20-point advantage just over two weeks ago to a lead of just under four points today. Furthermore, Reuters reports that “Romney’s double-digit advantages among older voters on the issues of health care and Medicare… also have evaporated, and Obama has begun to build an advantage in both areas.”

The results mirror a Pew poll released last week, which showed Romney with a minuscule 47 to 46 point lead among voters over the age of 65.

Romney’s dependence on older voters can’t be overemphasized; aside from white males it is the only demographic in which he has consistently out-polled Obama, and seniors make up a consequential part of the electorate in the crucial swing states of Iowa, Pennsylvania, and especially Florida. Given Romney’s dismally low support among Hispanics — a group that is very enthusiastic about voting in the 2012 election, as Jamelle Bouie points out in The American Prospect — Romney needs a strong performance among seniors to have any shot of winning.

“If Romney loses seniors, he loses this election, period,” Jonathan Oberlander, a health policy specialist at the University of North Carolina, told Reuters. “A bad showing nationally (among older voters) does not bode well for Florida and other states with big senior populations.”

Reuters notes that older voters disapprove of Paul Ryan’s controversial plan to convert Medicare into a voucher system by a 2 to 1 ratio. While this may not come as a surprise to those who saw Ryan get booed by the AARP last week for promising to repeal the Affordable Care Act, the drop in senior support suggests that Ryan may actually be a significant drag on the Republican ticket.

If Mitt Romney does go on to lose the support of seniors — and then the election — his decision to pick a man who openly hopes to get rid of “collectivist” programs like Medicare and Social Security will be judged in retrospect as the beginning of the end of his campaign.

Photo credit: AP/Charles Dharapak

Advertising

Start your day with National Memo Newsletter

Know first.

The opinions that matter. Delivered to your inbox every morning

Mehmet Oz

Youtube Screenshot

Fox News is in attack mode after its own polling showed Republican nominee Mehmet Oz trailing Democratic nominee Lt. Gov. John Fetterman in the Pennsylvania Senate race.

The July 28 Fox News poll showed that Fetterman has an 11-point lead over Oz. Additionally, according to the poll, “just 35 percent of those backing Oz say they support him enthusiastically, while 45 percent have reservations. For Fetterman, 68 percent back him enthusiastically and only 18 percent hesitate.” These results, combined with data showing that Fetterman is outraising and outspending Oz, could spell disaster for the GOP hopeful. However, since this polling, Fox has demonstrated it’s a reliable partner to help Oz try to reset the race.

Keep reading... Show less
Youtube Screenshot

For decades, abortion was the perfect issue for Republicans: one that they could use to energize "pro-life" voters, and one that would be around forever. What's more, they ran little risk of alienating "pro-choice" voters, who had little concern that the GOP would ever be able to repeal abortion rights.

Key to this strategy was the assumption that the Supreme Court would preserve Roe v. Wade. GOP candidates and legislators could champion the anti-abortion cause secure in the knowledge that they would not have to follow through in any major way. They could nibble away at abortion rights with waiting periods and clinic regulations, but the fundamental right endured. And their efforts were rewarded with the steadfast support of a bloc of single-issue voters.

Keep reading... Show less
{{ post.roar_specific_data.api_data.analytics }}