Polls Show Trump Struggling In Eight Swing States

Donald Trump
Photo by US Department of State/ CC BY-NC 2.0

Polls released this week showed Donald Trump trailing behind former Vice President Joe Biden in all eight swing states — some of which he won by a large margin in the presidential election four years ago.

In Iowa, a Monmouth University poll released Wednesday showed Biden leading Trump among likely voters 50 percent to 47 percent, compared with last month's poll in which Trump led by 3 percent. Among registered voters, Trump has a slight advantage with 48 percent to Biden's 47 percent.

Though Trump handily won Iowa by nearly ten points in 2016, the Hawkeye State is shaping up to be one of the most competitive races in this year's presidential election.

Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, said he is looking at a "couple very tight races that could go either way," including Iowa. He credited the important role older voters play in the state.

"Senior voters are a sizable bloc in Iowa and they prefer Biden on major issues," he said. "This group has historically supported Republicans but appears to be rejecting the Trump message here."

Murray noted Republican campaigns face two challenges in Iowa. "Not only do they need a bigger GOTV (Get Out the Vote) effort on Election Day," he said, "but any breaking developments that could help them may be too late."

Even voters who supported Trump previously are rethinking their options this year.

Four years ago, Charissa Frangione, 34, a small-business owner in Marcus, Iowa, voted for Trump, telling the New York Times, "I just thought, who better to get the economy back in order than a businessman?"

In 2020, she told the paper that she already voted by mail for Biden.

"Unfortunately, I just don't feel like he's lived up to my expectations as a president," said Frangione, a city council member. "Even the good things he does are washed out by his demeanor."

In Ohio, where Trump won by eight points four years ago, a Quinnipiac University poll released last week showed Biden slightly ahead with 48 percent to Trump's 47 percent. Biden holds an identical one-point lead in a Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research poll released Tuesday. Trump has traditionally shown a strong affinity toward Rasmussen, one of his preferred polling outlets.

One poll, a Fox News survey released Wednesday, did find Trump ahead in the Buckeye State among likely voters by 3 percentage points, 48 percent to Biden's 45 percent. Trump was also slightly ahead among registered voters at 46 percent to Biden's 44 percent.

In Arizona, another state where Trump won by more than 3 points in 2016, a poll released Sunday by YouGov showed Biden leading with 50 percent over Trump at 47 percent. A PoliticalIQ poll, conducted by Scott Rasmussen (RMG Research), found Biden with a slight lead at 47 percent and Trump at 46 percent.

In North Carolina, where Trump carried by more than 3 points four years ago, a Reuters/Ipsos opinion poll released Tuesday showed Biden leading 49 percent to Trump's 46 percent.

Dr. Michael Binder is faculty director at the University of North Florida's Public Opinion Research Lab, which conducted a poll released Tuesday showing a tight race with Biden at 48 percent and Trump at 47 percent in the Sunshine State. Trump won by 1.2 percent in 2016.

"While some polls have shown Biden with a big lead in Florida and other key states, we made an effort to capture hard-to-reach voters and our results suggest that it might be a long night on November 3rd," the associate professor of political science stated. "This is Florida, and elections are never easy here, I expect this race to come down to the wire."

The Reuters/Ipsos poll additionally found that the two presidential candidates neck and neck in Florida with Biden leading 49 percent to Trump's 47 percent. A CNN/SSRS poll released Wednesday showed a tight race as well, with Biden up 50 percent to 46 percent among likely voters and 48 percent to 46 percent among registered voters.

In Michigan, an Ipsos poll released Tuesday showed Biden with a wide 8-point lead over Trump, 52 percent to 44 percent. A Mitchell Research & Communications poll released Monday showed Trump trailing by an even bigger margin, with Biden up 51 percent to Trump's 41 percent.

One survey, a Fox News poll released Wednesday, found Trump trailing Biden by 12 points among likely voters and 11 percent among registered voters. Trump won Michigan in 2016 by the closest margin of all the swing states, 0.3 percent.

Steve Mitchell, president of Mitchell Research, cautioned this week that anything can happen in the days leading up to Nov. 3, but noted that Trump appeared to be in trouble.

"President Trump won Michigan four years ago by just 10,000 votes, but he appears to be in trouble this year. He is only getting 91 percent of the voters who voted for him four years ago, while 98 percent of Clinton's voters are voting for Biden. Trump is getting only 89 percent of the GOP vote, while Biden is getting 95 percent of the Democrats."

Mitchell noted that Biden also "has a big 2:1 lead with independents (54 percent-27 percent)."

"All this makes Michigan in the Biden camp now, but as we saw four years ago, as a lot can happen in the last 15 days," he said.

In Wisconsin where Trump won by 0.7 percent in 2016, Biden is also leading by a slim to wide margin. A Change Research poll released Tuesday found Trump trailing by 8 points, 44 percent to Biden's 52 percent. A third Ipsos poll released Monday also found Biden leading by 8 points with 51 percent against Trump's 43 percent.

A Fox News poll released Wednesday showed Trump still trailing, but also closing the gap slightly compared to last month.

In Pennsylvania where Trump won also by 0.7 percent, the former vice president is similarly in the lead. A Quinnipiac University poll found Biden leading with 51 percent and Trump at 43 percent. A Suffolk University poll also found Biden ahead 49 percent to 42 percent.

The conservative-leaning Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research poll found Biden with a slight lead in Pennsylvania, 50 percent to Trump's 45 percent.

A CNN/SSRS poll released Wednesday found Biden leading by a whopping 10 points among likely voters and 5 points among registered voters.

"In varying degrees, three critical states (Pennsylvania, Florida, and Iowa) in three very different parts of the country come to the same ominous conclusion. The president's hopes for re-election are growing dimmer by the day," said Tim Malloy, a polling analyst at Quinnipiac University.

"For Trump, 2016 is a distant memory."

Published with permission from The American Independent Foundation.


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