Tag: donald trump
Trump Forged Gaza Deal By Dropping His Rejection Of A Palestinian State

Trump Forged Gaza Deal By Dropping His Rejection Of A Palestinian State

Donald Trump deserves ample credit for brokering the ceasefire in Gaza, the return of Israel’s hostages, and the surge of humanitarian aid that may prevent a worse catastrophe for the suffering Palestinians. Should he feel that he has not received enough praise, he will laud himself until nobody can bear to hear another word.

But among the many ironies surrounding this moment, one fact seems central: There would be no deal if Trump and his negotiating team had not abandoned their longstanding opposition to a Palestinian state – and forced the Israeli government led by Benjamin Netanyahu to accept that change against their will.

Only weeks ago, Trump denounced the European recognition of Palestine as a “reward” to Hamas for the “horrible atrocities” perpetrated on October 7, 2023. He mocked France in particular, saying that its official support of a Palestinian state “doesn’t matter” and didn’t “carry any weight.”

Yet in hindsight, the Europeans were clearly correct to insist that only the revival of a two-state solution, much mocked in the United States, would create conditions for a ceasefire and a serious peace plan. Trump undoubtedly learned as much in his consultations with his friends (and business partners) in the Gulf states and Saudi Arabia – who could not have brought sufficient pressure on Hamas to agree to the deal’s terms, including its own disarmament and sidelining, without that fundamental concession. To be acceptable to those regimes, from Riyadh to Abu Dhabi to Doha to Ankara, any resolution had to include a Palestinian state.

That is among the reasons why the 20-point agreement that undergirds this ceasefire, and today’s joyous release of hostages and prisoners on both sides, is worth reading in full. It outlines a process for rebuilding and restoring Gaza that junks Trump’s earlier schemes to throw all the Gazans out of their homes for a gold-plated Mediterranean Las Vegas.

Instead, the deal envisions a transitional period that will conclude with a “reformed” Palestinian Authority resuming governance of the strip, and pledges, in clause 12, that “No one will be forced to leave Gaza, and those who wish to leave will be free to do so and free to return. We will encourage people to stay and offer them the opportunity to build a better Gaza.”

The framework for rebuilding “a better Gaza” includes various ideas that must have appealed to Trump, including a special board of world leaders including former British Prime Minister Tony Blair that the US president will chair. Whether those details can be sustained will be seen as the region’s future unfolds.

For reasons best known to the negotiators, however, the most important clauses were reserved for last – perhaps because they depend on the implementation of the prior clauses, perhaps because they were resisted by Israel until the very end. Set down in print, they make an indisputable departure from the hard-right positions of the Trump administration and the Netanyahu government.

The existence of a Palestinian state has long been anathema not just to Trump and Netanyahu but to the Republican right in Washington. Last month, Republican members of Congress sent a mesage to our allies in Europe and Canada scolding them for recognizing a nascent Palestine. Like Trump, who deleted the GOP's traditional platform plank supporting a two-state solution, they were content to undercut the Palestinians and allow Israel free reign everywhere from Jerusalem and the West Bank to the Golan Heights.

The stark difference between then and now is stated firmly in clauses 19 and 20 of the Trump deal, which make a promise that the world will have to redeem:

“19. While Gaza re-development advances and when the PA reform program is faithfully carried out, the conditions may finally be in place for a credible pathway to Palestinian self-determination and statehood, which we recognise as the aspiration of the Palestinian people.

“20. The United States will establish a dialogue between Israel and the Palestinians to agree on a political horizon for peaceful and prosperous co-existence.”

All the parties to this deal face a long and demanding path toward those worthy goals, and their sincerity will be tested repeatedly along the way. There can be little doubt that Netanyahu and perhaps Trump too will attempt to stall and undo those historic changes. But if the American president deserves the acclaim he is receiving today, it is largely owed to his public renunciation of the hardliners in his own party and the Israeli right.

Joe Conason is founder and editor-in-chief of The National Memo. He is also editor-at-large of Type Investigations, a nonprofit investigative reporting organization formerly known as The Investigative Fund. His latest book is The Longest Con: How Grifters, Swindlers and Frauds Hijacked American Conservatism (St. Martin's Press, 2024).

Ken Griffin Says Soaring Gold Is A Key Signal -- And He May Even Be Right

Ken Griffin Says Soaring Gold Is A Key Signal -- And He May Even Be Right

Here are two sentences I never expected to write:

1. Ken Griffin may be right.

2. The price of gold may be telling us something important.

Ken Griffin, for those who don’t know, is a hedge fund billionaire who was a big supporter of Donald Trump in the last election. That is, he was one of those ultra-rich Trump backers for whom being an insurrectionist-criminal convict-Epstein pal-scammer-serial bankrupt with clear autocratic tendencies didn’t matter. What mattered was “TAX CUTS!”, “DEREGULATION!”. But you often find that kind of self-serving myopia in wealthy and powerful men, who inhabit a gilded bubble that leaves them unable to see what is right in front of their faces.

A few weeks ago, however, Ken Griffin pronounced that he was shocked, shocked to discover that Trump isn’t a champion of free enterprise after all, and that he’s actually building a system of crony capitalism in which business success depends on your political connections. Well, I could have told Griffin that this was coming. In fact, I did.

Still, better late than never. Griffin deserves some credit for being willing to speak publicly about his current misgivings over Trump, rather than joining the nauseating chorus of praise for Dear Leader. So I found it interesting that he sees the soaring price of gold as an economic warning sign, an indication that Trump is causing the world to lose faith in America.

Here’s the price of gold over the past year. The price of gold is currently $4,037 per troy ounce, a record-setting price as it has skyrocketed in the past two months. It has risen over 54 percent since mid-November 2024:

Source: Macrotends Gold Price Last Ten Years

Normally I pay little attention to gold prices, but in this case I think Griffin has a point.

On gold: In general I’m with John Maynard Keynes, who called the fixation on gold a “barbarous relic.” You can’t use gold to make payments (other than the occasional bribe): Try buying a house with ingots. Some people seem to believe that gold will offer a refuge if society descends into chaos, but let’s be real: Do you really think gold bars would help you navigate a Fallout-type post-apocalyptic landscape?

Still, people continue to hold a lot of gold — around $27 trillion dollars’ worth. That’s more than 6 times the value of all crypto, despite the recent runup in Bitcoin etc. So in the words of Fallout’s Lucy MacLean, “okey dokey.”

So what drives gold’s price, and what do movements in that price tell us?

Some people believe that the price of gold reflects expectations of future inflation. There were many assertions to that effect in the early Obama years. Conservatives who insisted that Obama’s policies were inflationary pointed to the rising price of gold for support. Indeed, the real price of gold — the gold price divided by the overall level of consumer prices — rose significantly during Obama’s first few years in office:

Source: Macrotrends Gold Pirce 100 Year Historical Chart

These claims prompted me to write a wonky blog post — basically a short paper, but I hope fairly readable — arguing, in essence, that holding gold isn’t an alternative to holding currency. It is, instead, an alternative to holding bonds, which pay interest. And the driver of rising gold prices after the financial crisis was, I argued, a sharp fall in the real rate of interest — the interest rate minus expected inflation – due to the bursting of the housing bubble and the economy’s deep recession.

We can observe the real rate of interest directly, because the U.S. government issues TIPS, “Treasury inflation protected securities” — bonds whose future payouts are linked to the Consumer Price Index. The interest rate on TIPS basically is the real rate, while the spread between rates on TIPS and ordinary bonds measures market expectations of future inflation. And TIPS rates plunged after the global financial crisis, explaining the rise in gold prices even though inflation was low, not high:

A side issue that has been worrying me: TIPS are linked to the official Consumer Price Index. But the Bureau of Labor Statistics won’t be issuing new reports during the government shutdown, which means that it’s highly likely that the next CPI report, due Oct. 15, won’t come out on time if at all, and it’s anyone’s guess when we’ll get fresh data. How will Treasury handle that?

More broadly, if the Trump administration succeeds in politicizing the BLS, TIPS won’t be protected against inflation. They’ll only be protected against inflation the administration is willing to admit is happening. Have investors thought through the implications?

Back to my main theme. As Griffin says, gold prices have soared recently. Yet as you can see from my second chart, real interest rates are up, not down. What’s driving interest rates? Probably a combination of big budget deficits, made bigger by the One Big Beautiful Bill, and the AI boom, as well as the fear that Trump will politicize the Fed and stoke persistent inflation. But these higher real interest rates should drive gold prices down, not up.

So what’s happening? The most likely story, which seems consistent with what Griffin is saying, is that a growing number of investors — including, in particular, foreign central banks — are moving into gold because they no longer consider U.S. debt a safe asset.

Now it’s hard to pin down exactly what investors fear, perhaps because they aren’t sure themselves. But many previously inconceivable possibilities are now quite conceivable given the Trump administration’s radicalism. Runaway inflation hidden by rigged official statistics? Expropriation of the reserves of governments Trump doesn’t like? Forced conversion of foreign assets into 100-year bonds? Given the administration’s record so far, how confident are you that none of these things could possibly happen?

As I said at the top of this piece, I normally pay don’t pay much attention to gold, which doesn’t play an important role in the modern economy. But I believe that the recent runup in gold prices is telling us something — namely, that the world is losing faith in America.

And perhaps Ken Griffin’s warnings are also telling us that even ultra-rich hedge fund titans are starting to worry about the monster they helped create.

Paul Krugman is a Nobel Prize-winning economist and former professor at MIT and Princeton who now teaches at the City University of New York's Graduate Center. From 2000 to 2024, he wrote a column for The New York Times. Please consider subscribing to his Substack.

Reprinted with permission from Paul Krugman.

'Untethered To Facts': How Portland Exposes Trump's Fake 'Emergencies'

'Untethered To Facts': How Portland Exposes Trump's Fake 'Emergencies'

District Court Judge Karin Immergut’s adroit opinion blocking the administration’s plan to deploy National Guard troops to Portland offers a model for how courts should handle the Trump administration’s many assertions of “emergency power.” The opinion is low-key but precise and judicious, and it points the way out of a legal thicket that has been growing denser with every new assertion of presidential emergency power. Most importantly, Immergut, a Trump appointee, insists on a critical constitutional truth in the age of Trump—one that other courts have yet to express: deference is not the same as blind acquiescence.

The case forced Immergut to confront the central pathology of the Trump era. Trump’s pattern of invoking “emergencies” has been prolific—and consistently mendacious. He has lied about imaginary “invasions” at the southern border, about “crime waves” in the District of Columbia, about fentanyl “floods,” and immigrant “armies.” Now he has invented a supposed “rebellion” in Portland to justify sending in troops under 10 U.S.C. § 12406—a statute that allows federalization of the National Guard when there’s an invasion, a rebellion, or when the President is unable, with the regular forces, to execute the laws.

Immergut, who lives in Portland, coolly explained that there was no insurrection. Portland was not “war-ravaged.” Protesters were not “domestic terrorists.” Local law enforcement was fully capable of handling the scattered incidents that did occur.

Trump has been prodigal in invoking “emergencies”—at the border, in cities, even in cyberspace—but nearly all have rested on transparent falsehoods. There has never been an “invasion” of marauding migrants, or a fentanyl “siege,” or a crime wave in Washington sufficient to justify federal deployment. Each supposed emergency has been a pretext for asserting powers Congress never gave him. The pattern is as consistent as it is brazen: declare a crisis, invent the facts to match, and dare the courts to stop him.

That poses a unique problem for courts. The judiciary has long applied doctrines of deference to the executive branch, giving “respectful weight” to the President’s factual determinations in national security or emergency contexts. The rationale is sound in principle: judges are not generals or intelligence officers, and they traditionally assume the President acts in good faith to “take care that the laws be faithfully executed.”

Trump has laid waste to that principle with his brazen willingness to serve up lies in patent bad faith. That reality changes the meaning and application of deference to the executive. It’s one thing to respect a president’s reasoning; it’s another to swallow the sensational fabrications of a carny.

Judge Immergut inherited a tricky legal backdrop. In State of California v. Trump, Judge Charles Breyer in the Northern District of California had earlier struck down Trump’s invocation of emergency powers to fund the border wall. Breyer found the statutory predicates unmet and the “emergency” itself fictitious. But a Ninth Circuit panel stayed—and later reversed—his TRO, in a terse opinion emphasizing a ‘highly deferential’ standard and leaving its limits unclear. Immergut met that fuzzy command with clarity, modesty, and backbone.

As in the Breyer case, the administration argued that the President had determined that Portland met § 12406’s criteria and that courts must defer to that determination. The implicit argument was that judges must bless even the most fantastical presidential claims so long as the word “emergency” appeared in the proclamation. Immergut refused to take that bait.

She began with the facts on the ground and their stark contrast with Trump’s hysterical assertions. Oregon and Portland had shown, she wrote, “substantial evidence that the protests at the Portland ICE facility were not significantly violent or disruptive.” The federal defendants, by contrast, produced nothing resembling proof of rebellion or organized resistance to federal law. “Sporadic violence,” she noted, “is not the same as a rebellion.”

Turning to the administration’s claim that Portland faced a “rebellion” or “danger of a rebellion,” her conclusion was unsparing: the President’s determination “was simply untethered to the facts.”

That phrase—“simply untethered to the facts”—is a gem. Immergut doesn’t rage or sermonize; she simply compares Trump’s public statements about “mobs,” “agitators,” and “paid radicals” with the actual record before her. The gap is abyssal. Her refusal to indulge the fiction is, in itself, a quiet act of civic courage.

The heart of the opinion comes when she addresses the administration’s inevitable fallback—that courts owe the President broad deference. She agrees, up to a point. A “great level of deference,” she writes, is indeed due to the executive’s factual determinations in matters of security. But deference does not mean ignoring the facts on the ground. Courts, she continues, must ensure that a presidential determination “reflects a colorable assessment of the facts and law within a range of honest judgment.”

That is the key sentence—the one that should echo in every courtroom and chamber of the appellate bench. It reclaims deference from the edge of abdication. It draws a clean, bright line between a reasonable mistake and a deliberate falsehood. “The President’s determination,” she concludes, “was simply untethered to the facts”—that is, conceived in bad faith. Immergut doesn’t say “liar.” She doesn’t have to. The entire structure of her reasoning spells it out. She treats truth as the baseline condition for judicial respect. Without it, “deference” collapses into blind obedience.

Deference, she reminds us, exists within a tripartite system in which the executive has a reciprocal duty to respect judicial determinations. Trump and his aides plainly do not share that understanding. He insulted Immergut, saying she “ought to be ashamed of herself,” and doubled down on his fantasy tableau: “Portland is burning to the ground… all you have to do is turn on your television.” Stephen Miller, comically pompous as ever, took it further, calling the decision “one of the most egregious and thunderous violations of constitutional order we have ever seen.”

Far worse than the rhetorical attacks, the feds appear to have ignored Immergut’s ruling altogether. She convened an emergency hearing Sunday night and told DOJ lawyers that the President was “in direct contravention” of her order. She then stiffened the terms to bar “the relocation, federalization, or deployment of members of the National Guard of any state or the District of Columbia in the state of Oregon.” A fight is clearly brewing.

Immergut’s opinion arrives at a perilous moment. Trump has discovered that “emergency” is a magic word—one that can turn lies into legal justifications and personal will into governmental authority. If courts yield reflexively, he can continue to conjure crises out of thin air and claim martial powers to address them. Most ominously, he could try to play that card in the context of the midterms, proclaiming an emergency that lets him interfere with the machinery of democracy itself.

But Immergut’s approach shows how the judiciary can resist without crossing into partisanship. She doesn’t deny that presidents need latitude; she insists only that the factual predicates must fall “within the bounds of reason.” That formulation—at once moderate and profound—anchors her opinion in the deep tradition of the rule of law. It reminds us that facts are not partisan; they are the medium in which law lives.

Part of what makes the opinion so powerful is its tone. Immergut’s prose is calm. There is no self-dramatization, no flourish. Yet by doing nothing more than refusing to credit falsehoods, she performs an act of moral clarity that the country badly needs.

If other judges follow her example, they can begin to contain the metastasizing notion that presidential power grows in proportion to bad faith. The judiciary’s role is not to assume the truth of the President’s sensational fantasies but to ensure that factual predicates for emergency powers are real. And when district judges, who see witnesses and evidence firsthand, make those credibility determinations, appellate courts should defer to them—not to executive fiction.

There are sound reasons for doctrines of deference, but none that justify acquiescing in lies. Immergut’s decision shows that need not happen. She demonstrates that ordinary judicial virtues—care, honesty, restraint—are enough to halt extraordinary abuses. Fidelity to fact, she reminds us, is fidelity to the Constitution. The stakes of this case “go[] to the heart of what it means to live under the rule of law in the United States.”

“Deference” cannot be an automatic pass to lawlessness or a license to bypass constitutional rights. If courts wield the label of “deference” to greenlight emergency powers based on lies, the law goes dark. Immergut’s opinion lights the way out.

Harry Litman is a former United States Attorney and the executive producer and host of the Talking Feds podcast. He has taught law at UCLA, Berkeley, and Georgetown and served as a deputy assistant attorney general in the Clinton Administration. Please consider subscribing to Talking Feds on Substack.

Reprinted with permission from Talking Feds.

Donald's Diversionary Crackdown Is A MAGA Comic Book Spectacle

Donald's Diversionary Crackdown Is A MAGA Comic Book Spectacle

In recent days, the spectacle of state power abusing American citizens has reached critical mass. Coast to coast, masked thugs are dragging Americans off by their clothes and hair. Peaceful protestors branded as “terrorists” are being shoved into unmarked vans. Untold numbers of immigrants with and without documents have already disappeared into an American gulag. Even city cops are being tear gassed by masked federal agents.

All without due process.

Most of us are appalled. But not all. Some of these activities have been recorded, set to music and released by the Trump administration for the viewing pleasure, presumably, of MAGA fans. As artifacts of this time, these little works of art don’t reach for the mythologizing grandeur of Leni Riefenstahl (that will come later, surely), but they capture the granularity of the American 21st century fascist aesthetic, which is, of course, the Marvel comic.

Around the time Trump rode down the golden escalator to blame “Mexican rapists” for America’s problems, America slipped through a wormhole into a Freakshow of cartoonish evil. Trump, the saurian reality show impresario, overseeing a cast of characters with analogues in comic books or horror classics. The senior official behind the assault on American cities is a dead ringer for Nosferatu. Trump advisor Roger Stone, dandy in bespoke Penguin suits, bares his teeth like a Tasmanian devil. The Health and Human Services Secretary had a literal dead worm in his brain. “Stormy” and “Pecker” starred in the Presidential sex scandal, a “Trashelle” in another. Raven-haired plastic-fantastic villainess Laura Loomer is a millennial Cruella DeVil. And a shaky dry drunk weekend anchorman has nominal control over the most lethal military in human history.

As the administration ramps up its assault on American cities, the Marvel movie production values are undeniable. Over the weekend, right wing influencer Benny Johnson went to Chicago with ICE, donned a flak vest and got to cosplay warrior, selfie-sashaying past a line of sign-holding protesters he called “terrorists.” He later created an AI-generated video of himself as Batman, battling sombrero-wearing “terrorists.”

Benny makes a fitting mascot for this phase of the MAGA insurrection. Like all MAGA influencers, he’s a longtime fraud whose shamelessness helped him fail upward. Sacked for plagiarism not only by mainstream media but by a right wing outlet, he was rescued from oblivion by Russian covert disinformation money that literally made him rich and famous.

Now, like all the superstar MAGA influencer-bros, Benny leans on performative uxoriousness (they all profess to be happily married), fake-Christian sanctimony, and racist/misogynist political insult comedy. Tweeting out his slick embed video, he announced, “From tunnels under Trump Tower to the most targeted ICE facility, we faced violent Antifa, chaos, and criminals on the run.” Anyone who bothered to actually watch the video didn’t see any violence from the sign-holding protesters, and the only chaos appeared to be among the twitchy men in flak vests.

Before he “deployed” to the streets, he snagged an interview with DHS Secretary Kristi Noem. In the video, they hug and then have a chat… about Bad Bunny and the Super Bowl. For those blissfully unaware of MAGA’s buffet of racialist obsessions, they’ve lately been losing it over the NFL’s choice of halftime entertainment. Bad Bunny, born and raised in Puerto Rico, a US territory, is an American citizen. But because he sings mostly in Spanish and is vocally anti-Trump, MAGA world views his selection as a personal affront, a pro football diss to the greater whiteness project.

Bad Bunny outright said that he excluded the US from his forthcoming world tour because of fears that ICE would deploy immigration raids targeting his fans, something Benny brought up in his video. He tees up Kristi Noem: “What is your message to Bad Bunny? Will there be ICE enforcement at the Super Bowl?”

“We’ll be all over that place,” replies the fake frontier woman and unrepentant puppy-killer. “We are going to enforce the law. You shouldn’t be coming to the Super Bowl unless you are a law-abiding American citizen.”

(As if any undocumented immigrant would have the thousands of dollars for a ticket or the audacity to come around one of the most heavily guarded sporting events in America.)

The fact that two adults – one of whom is overseeing an extralegal assault on a major American city they claim is “under siege” by the left– appear to be chiefly concerned with the ideology of Super Bowl halftime entertainment is laughable.

During the presidential debate, Kamala Harris stated of Trump: “He’s not a serious person.” His greatest living biographer, Michael Wolff, calls him “an idiot.” But the spectacle is not supposed to be serious. Trump is an idiot savant when it comes to entertainingly manipulating race and class grievances.

The cartoon world his voters bought into last November has now turned dark, real and serious. Hundreds of Texas National Guard troops are headed up to Chicago, dispatched in accordance with Trump’s wishes, in defiance of judges and the governor of Illinois. A West Coast federal judge has managed to stave off the deployment of the National Guard to Portland, Oregon (where the chief of police is on record that the so-called emergency is a tiny protest taking place within one square block of the city). How long before armed men with Dixieland accents are shoving northern cops aside in the northern cities?

After ICE’s Blackhawk helicopter assault on a Chicago apartment building, right wing social media justified it by sharing reports of “30 shootings” in the city over the weekend. Sadly, 30 shootings in a weekend is not a lot by American standards. It is less than average. This year, there have been 11,359 gun deaths and 20,574 gun injuries nationwide. And according to the CDC, last year, the states with the highest rate of gun deaths per 100,000 were Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. The lowest were New York, New Jersey, and Massachusetts.

Fox “News” has done its part for a decade at least, terrorizing white rural and suburban Americans with stories about urban crime infernos. That myth of blue city violence is a new Big Lie pretext for the Insurrectionist in Chief to realize a dream he’s cherished since at least January 6, 2021.

Would he really invoke the Insurrection Act? He footsied around with that question last night. Maaaybe

Kinda depends: how much American carnage will it take to make us forget Trump-Epstein? This morning, Pam Bondi remained silent at a Congressional hearing when Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI), asked her if there were pictures of “Trump with half-naked young women” in the DOJ’s Epstein files.

She didn’t say no.

Nina Burleigh is a journalist, author, documentary producer, and adjunct professor at New York University's Arthur L. Carter Journalism Institute. She has written eight books including her recently published novel, Zero Visibility Possible.

Reprinted with permission from American Freakshow

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