President Donald Trump threw his weight behind Republican congressional candidate Matt Van Epps on Monday, calling into a Nashville rally for the special election that has grown uncomfortably tight for the GOP.

“The whole world is watching Tennessee right now, and they’re watching the district,” Trump said, speaking through a phone held to a microphone by House Speaker Mike Johnson. “It’s gotta show that the Republican Party is stronger than it’s ever been. We have a bigger, stronger party than we’ve ever had. We have more members of the Republican Party than we’ve ever had, and we love Tennessee.”

The spectacle underscored just how rattled Republicans have become in what should be a reliably conservative seat. Johnson, who flew in from Washington early Monday, cast the race as an early test for the party.

“We think what will happen here will be a bellwether for the midterms next year,” he told reporters.

As the New York Times reported, much of the rally focused less on Van Epps—an Army veteran and former state commissioner—than on the stakes for the GOP’s razor-thin House majority.

Johnson didn’t mince words about Democrat Aftyn Behn, calling her “a dangerous far leftist” who would be a “rubber stamp” for Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York.

The special election will fill the seat left vacant by former Rep. Mark Green, a Republican who resigned in July for a private-sector job. Tennessee’s Seventh District, which spans parts of Nashville and stretches across rural counties, has reliably voted Republican for more than a decade. But Democrats see a chance to overperform after strong off-year election results in November.

Trump carried the district by 22 percent in 2024, but a recent Emerson College poll shows Van Epps leading Behn by just two percent. The tightening margin comes as Trump’s own numbers slip: a recent Gallup survey placed his approval rating at 36 percent, the lowest of his second term so far.

Behn, a state representative and former progressive organizer, has built her campaign around affordability and Washington fatigue, echoing the message that powered Democrats’ November victories in Virginia and New Jersey.

Van Epps, a West Point graduate and former Army helicopter pilot, has pitched himself as a steady conservative aligned with Trump. He won a crowded 11-way primary in October and has leaned heavily into cost-cutting themes.

National attention has turned the race into a proxy fight, with Trump holding a virtual rally for Van Epps in November. And former Vice President Kamala Harris appeared in Nashville on Nov. 18 to rally voters for Behn, while Ocasio-Cortez is reportedly going to headline a virtual rally of her own.

And the advertising blitz reflects the high stakes. GOP-backed spots mostly avoid mentioning Trump and instead hammer Behn as too liberal for the district. A Trump-aligned super PAC resurfaced old clips of her calling herself “a very radical person,” which she says was taken out of context.

Democratic ads, meanwhile, tie Van Epps to Trump and highlight his position on the Epstein files.

“The Epstein files are locked away. Matt Van Epps will keep ‘em that way,” one recent spot warned.

Fundraising has tilted toward Behn, who pulled in roughly $1.2 million by mid-November, while Van Epps brought in about $992,000, according to FEC filings.

Both parties now see the race as an early test of the national mood. For Republicans, a stumble in a district that should be safely red would deepen concerns about their ability to hold a precarious House majority and raise fresh questions about the durability of Trump’s influence.

As votes are set to be counted tonight, the contest offers an early read on where the political winds may blow in 2026—and whether Trump’s backing is still enough to keep red districts red.

Reprinted with permission from Daily Kos