Tag: early voting
So Far, So Good: Reported Early Vote Favors Democrats In Key Senate Races

So Far, So Good: Reported Early Vote Favors Democrats In Key Senate Races

Early voting has begun in half of the country, and there may be warning signs for Republicans in areas they need to win if they have any shot of maintaining their House and Senate majorities.

Across 10 Senate battlegrounds, 53 percent of early and mail-in votes have been cast by registered Democrats, while only 34 have been cast by registered Republicans, according to data from NBC News. And in none of those 10 battlegrounds, which range from Kansas to Maine, have more votes been cast by Republicans than Democrats.

As of last Wednesday, the number of votes cast by Republicans was lower than it was at that point in the 2022 midterm cycle in 10 of 12 states that provide party-registration data for early-voting figures and had seen a significant number of ballots cast, according to Tom Bonier, a senior adviser to TargetSmart, a left-leaning elections research firm. While the same was true for Democrats in nine of those 12 states—a phenomenon that Bonier chalks up to waning use of mail voting—Democrats also led Republicans in the number of ballots cast in 10 states.

Given that polls show independent voters poised to break toward Democrats, a sizable drop-off in Republican voters would cause the bottom to fall out for the GOP.

“So far, the Early Vote data I’ve seen has been broadly consistent with what those likely voter polls are suggesting. Across the board, the people showing up to vote in person appear to be disproportionately Democratic,” Zachary Donnini, an election analyst with VoteHub, wrote in a post on X. “We first saw it in Virginia and Ohio, and now this week’s early voting in Georgia and North Carolina has been particularly concerning for Republicans. Mail ballot return rates in New Jersey and Arizona tell a similar story. Nearly every measure of enthusiasm I’ve seen, both in surveys and in early voting, currently favors Democrats.”

A deeper dive into the numbers shows the hole Republicans find themselves in.

In North Carolina, the Republican share of the early-voting electorate is down nine percentage points from the same point in 2022, according to The New York Times. And in Iowa—where Democrats are looking to pick up the state’s GOP-held open Senate seat—Democrats lead Republicans in votes already cast, 54% to 30%. That’s a big swing from the same point in 2022, when 48% of the early vote was Democratic and 39% was Republican.

Of course, early-voting data can be misleading. A voter’s party registration doesn’t necessarily mean the voter cast a ballot for that party, and extrapolating from the data includes a lot of guesswork.

However, Republicans in critical states are sounding alarm bells about the data.

“This is really a weird cycle,” Tanya Karabanovs, a volunteer with the Ohio Republican Party, told The New York Times of the struggle her party has faced in get-out-the-vote efforts. “There’s no way to feel confident about any of the races, honestly.”

In Michigan, a local Republican Party chair had to resign in September after he publicly warned about the difficulties his party faced getting their voters out to the polls amid Trump’s sinking popularity with the GOP base.

“The vibes on the ground are the worst I’ve seen in my life,” now-former Marquette County Republican Party Chair Jackson Karki, who posts on X under the handle @RedLionPolitics, wrote in mid-September. “No one wants to promote candidates, no one wants to knock doors, no one wants to do shit. Attendance for any right wing event is at all time lows anywhere I go. Thank you Donald Trump for ruining it for us… and handing the country over to socialism.”

Ultimately, the GOP’s turnout issues reflect what the polls have been telling us for months: Republican voters are growing disillusioned with President Donald Trump, angry over his war in Iran and his tariffs that have spiked gas prices and caused economic hardship across the country. Those voters are threatening to sit out this election or even vote for Democrats, an outcome that would cause a blue tsunami.

For example, a Washington Post/ABC News/Ipsos poll released Sunday found that just 33% of Americans approve of the job Trump is doing as president—the lowest rating this poll has clocked in either of Trump’s terms. The pollsters also found that the generic ballot—in which voters say what party they will vote for in their own congressional district—has Democrats leading Republicans by 13 points among those who say they are “certain to vote” or have already voted.

When it comes to the early vote, the worst thing for Republicans seems to be that it confirms that the polls may not be off—and may even be underestimating Democrats.

In any event, we will know the outcome in 15 days. All gas, no brakes.

Reprinted with permission from Daily Kos

Tom Bevan

High On Copium! How Online Republicans Confront Looming Blue Tsunami

Tom Bevan, the publisher of the conservative RealClearPolitics, made an objectively true and noncontroversial post on X: “22 days from the election and this morning’s headlines could hardly be worse for GOP.” Those headlines included Senate Republicans dumping $8 million into saving the party’s Nebraska Senate seat, as well as polls showing Republicans cratering in party preference and among Latinos.

The responses to Bevan were hysterical.

“What media should be doing but won’t do is why a 38 year old named James Talarico was off campaign trail for 2 weeks?” read one response, pretending that conservatives’ hilariously debunked conspiracy theory had even an inkling of relevancy. “That would require investigative reporting of a Democrat by a corrupt media”

“The polls are doing their job, forcing R’s to waste money on races that really aren’t in any danger,” read another reply, as if Republicans were basing their spending decisions on random media polls, as opposed to their own internal research.

“Maybe if Congress had actually supported the Trump agenda and the Save America Act they might have better poll,” argued yet another. “The election is a referendum on them Not Pres Trump or MAGA.” Expect this one to be a popular excuse in what should be an epic post-election blame game.

“Yeah because these are voter suppression headlines,” cried another MAGA nut. “The media and pundits are rooting for the GOP to lose.”

Assuming this were true—and given the condition of our nation, I wish it were—what does that have to do with Republicans dumping $8 million into Nebraska, among other recent shocking developments?

“If you actually looked at the early vote data, doesn’t jibe with the leftist polls you harp on every day,” replied another X user. (I will admit, however, that I am sympathetic to this one because we had this exact same cope in 2024.)

The problem with taking solace in the early vote is two-fold. One, the early vote doesn’t count any more than the late vote. We had liberals voting early in 2024, only to get swamped by the Election Day vote. This year, likely given the Trump administration’s efforts to mess with the U.S. Postal Service and mail ballots, liberals seem to be shifting back to in-person voting. In the end, early-vote numbers give us very little insight into the eventual outcome.

Furthermore, there is no way to know how independents are voting, nor, for that matter, how rural Republicans in Ohio facing a data center in their backyard might vote.

But for sure, this is one of the most popular copes, like this X user: “Hahahahahhahaha and yet despite all the MSM propaganda, further amplified by you of course, GOP voters are turning out!! Mail + early voting gives us a picture of NO blue wave & barely a blue trickle! Senate will stay in GOP hands & house will be very narrowly won by Dems.”

n the real world, Republicans have had to spend over $200 million to try and save a Senate seat in Texas, of all places, not to mention all the millions going into Iowa, Ohio, Nebraska, etc. In a blue trickle, Republicans would still be competing in the reddish-purple states of Georgia and North Carolina. And they aren’t.

Conservatives being conservatives, they do dip into some weird conspiracy stuff, like, “Uniparty RHINO’s are holdouts for the globalist left.” Does anyone want to venture a guess on what the “H” could stand for? “Republican H___ In Name Only.”

They can always pretend that those dire headlines are just ho-hum: “i’m not sure how ‘The GOP should have started spending money earlier, but they’re spending it now’ is that big of a crisis.”

It’s where they are spending it, of course. Also, the fact that they’re largely not spending it in Georgia or North Carolina is part of that big crisis.

How else can they cope? With insults, of course!

“If you believe media headlines you have far worse problems than republicans- like being gullible,” wrote one replier. “[A]s the old saying goes ‘There’s a sucker born every minute.’”

Ironically...

Bevan ended up incredulous at the cope since it flies in the face of all reality.

“So much cope in the responses,” he responded. “Even if you hate the media & don’t believe the polls, it’s inarguable the GOP is spending the vast majority of its 2 most precious resources (time & money) in the final weeks of the campaign defending deep red areas: $8M in NE, $5M in SC, $5M in KS, $17M in Iowa, $127M in TX, $144M in OH.”

He concluded: “Trump isn’t traveling to OH, AK, TX and NE because of bullshit polls or media bias. He’s … trying to activate MAGA voters to stave off a blue wave. Maybe he’ll be successful. But the WH and the GOP are very concerned about a worst-case scenario—and they have every right to be.”

You truly have to stick your head in the sand to pretend that the worst, for Republicans, isn’t yet to come.

Markos Moulitsas is founder and editor of the blogging website Daily Kos and author of three books.


Right-Wing Media Struggle To Embrace Early Voting In Wake Of New York Defeat

Right-Wing Media Struggle To Embrace Early Voting In Wake Of New York Defeat

Right-wing figures are sounding the alarm that Republicans must mobilize their supporters to embrace early voting in the wake of last night’s special election, in which Democrats won the U.S. House seat formerly held by scandal-plagued ex-Rep. George Santos (R-NY). The problem for them, however, is that this would require undoing the propaganda campaign that former President Donald Trump and his right-wing media allies waged against early voting and voter access initiatives in their failed effort to steal the 2020 election.

Early on election night, Democrats boasted that their nominee, former Rep. Tom Suozzi, had already built up a 14,000-vote lead over his Republican opponent, Mazi Pilip. Republican get-out-the-vote efforts on Election Day might also have been hindered by a snowstorm on Long Island, which led to a Republican super PAC hiring private snow plows to clear areas around Republican-leaning precincts. Suozzi won the race by an almost 8-point margin and it is unclear whether the snow made a difference in the result, but the situation highlighted a problem for Republicans: Many Democratic voters had actively banked their ballots before Election Day, while Republican voters largely put off casting theirs until the last day of the campaign.

Conservative media face tough choices after this election loss, which may have hinged on the GOP's abrupt abandonment of bipartisan immigration reform legislation in the final days of the campaign, and in turn been exacerbated by the party and its media allies distancing themselves from early voting over the past four years.

  • Former Trump 2016 campaign aide Rick Gates said, “My No. 1 takeaway is for Republicans: early voting, early voting, early voting.” Gates further touted the campaign’s successful work in 2016 at mobilizing early voters in Florida and North Carolina. “Why the Republicans haven't been able to, you know, basically replicate that process, I don't know, but we've got to fix it and fix it soon,” Gates said, failing to acknowledge at all that Trump himself spoke against early voting throughout the 2020 election, plus his continued denial about the 2020 election in the years afterward. [Newsmax, Wake Up America, 2/14/24; Business Insider, 2/14/24]
  • Former Trump adviser Kellyanne Conway declared on Fox News: “Bank your vote early, getting that early vote and making Republican voters comfortable, center-right voters comfortable with voting early, is incredibly important.” Fox News anchor Bill Hemmer thanked Conway for her political analysis of the race, “especially the early voting, we’ve yet to see whether or not the RNC can pull that off.” [Fox News, America’s Newsroom, 2/14/24]
  • Right-wing radio host John Fredericks told opponents of early voting, “If you continue to push game-day voting because of algorithms, servers on Mars, CCP people flying around in flying saucers changing algorithms in the middle of the night, we will never win an election.” A crucial fact here is that Fredericks himself previously spent years spreading claims of vast election fraud. Following the 2022 midterms, however, he reversed course and declared, “I’m out of the convincing business, the narrative business. I’m in the ballot business, I just want to put ballots in boxes.” [Real America’s Voice, Outside The Beltway, 2/14/24; Real America’s Voice, War Room, 11/30/22]
  • Dairy Wire co-founder Ben Shapiro castigated Trump for his past statements against early voting and said that he “better flip on that right fast, because use every method at your disposal to win.” “In the Republican Party, who would’ve suggested that mail-in ballots are stupid and you shouldn’t use them?” Shapiro asked rhetorically. “Who would’ve proposed such a foolish proposition that you should — you know, it’s somehow morally bad to vote early if you’re a Republican? Thus losing two Senate seats in Georgia, and maybe his own presidential election.” [The Daily Wire, The Ben Shapiro Show, 2/14/24]

Unfortunately for Republicans, not everyone the right-wing media echo chamber is getting onboard. Former Trump adviser Steve Bannon, a key figure in spreading Trump’s election lies leading up to the January 6 insurrection and in promoting Big Lie candidates in 2022, asserted Wednesday that “they stole this election in New York,” and reiterated his old election lies: “Like I said in 2020, they're stealing it by mail-in ballots and with these bad voter rolls and you can't get away from that.”

Reprinted with permission from Media Matters.

In Senate Runoff, Georgia's Organizers Defy GOP Attack On Voting Rights

In Senate Runoff, Georgia's Organizers Defy GOP Attack On Voting Rights

On the only day of Sunday voting before Georgia’s U.S. Senate runoff, the auto-parts store parking lot across the street from Atlanta’s Metropolitan Library looked and sounded more like a block party than a get-out-the-vote event.

“We’re having a good time on this corner. If you feel the spirit, let me hear your horn. Come on!” bellowed D.J. Concrete Kash above a sound system that played gospel music and was next to several orange shade tents filled with free food, water, hand warmers and voter guides.

“We have five or six organizations out here coming together to say, ‘Hey, we believe in what you all are doing,” said Chandra Gallashaw, a community organizer. “Georgia Stand Up is over there. The NAACP. Black Voters Matter. We Vote, We Win… It has nothing to do with anyone running for office. It has to do with these people over there in line exercising their right, their constitutional right to vote.”

The tables at this pro-voter effort comprised some of Georgia’s oldest and newest non-profit civil rights groups. While they were careful not to endorse any candidate, their presence was a powerful rejoinder to the state’s GOP-led government, whose 2021 legislation banned giving food and water to anyone waiting to vote, among other roll backs of voting options.

“As we know, our governor [Republican Brian Kemp] banned us from being able to give water in line. We have to be 150 feet away from the polls,” said Mykah Owens, a campaign associate with We Vote We Win. “One of our guys measured and made sure that we’re far enough from the polls so we won’t get in trouble.”

“We had to do something,” said Gallashaw. “The fact we cannot give water in line to people who stand in line for two or three hours… Some of these folks are 70, 80 years old. Some of them are diabetic. They have health issues.”

A similar “Party to the Polls” was held at three of Fulton County’s two-dozen voting sites on Sunday and will continue through the early voting period which ends on Friday. While the event was a rarity in this populous county, its significance was not lost on Black voters.

“I love the fact that although they tried to pass a law where you couldn’t give water and things to people in line, they just put it across the street,” said Yasha Yisrael, who, with her husband, Chasum Yisrael, were sipping free smoothies from one of three food trucks. “It’s amazing.”

“It’s something that should have been done all along and I hope they continue it,” she continued, “because it does encourage more people who would not normally vote who are registered to come in and vote because they feel this sense of community.”

“Every effort is being tried to stop our right to vote,” said Chasum Yisreal. “We’ve got to be smart about it.”

The couple said that they did not know who the newer civic groups were. But across the state’s 159 counties, a coalition of community-based organizations, from mainstays like the NAACP and sororities and fraternities from historically Black colleges and universities to new groups targeting younger people, are making a determined effort to turn out voters for the Senate runoff and to keep in touch year round to try to change state’s political representation.

Georgia, as Rep. Nikema Williams told the Democratic National Committee last June in a bid to urge the DNC to move up its 2024 presidential primary date, is one of the nation’s most racially diverse states with growing Black, Latino and Asian-Pacific Islander populations. It is the fifth-ranked state for women-owned businesses and 41 percent of all businesses are minority owned, which is double the national average. But cosmopolitan Atlanta is surrounded by the old South, where conservatives continue to dominate county and municipal government.

That landscape has turned every recent Georgia election into a struggle to engage voters. The Senate runoff was no exception and is operating under some new voting rules.

This is the first time that a statewide runoff is being held one month after Election Day. That timetable is half as long as the state’s two U.S. Senate runoff elections in 2020 and was created by the GOP’s 2021 legislation. One impact of the shorter timetable is to block new voters from registering. It also is too tight a timeline to obtain and return a mailed-out ballot.

Additionally, the legislation shortened the runoff’s early voting period to one week, although some metro counties expanded it through this past weekend, and a few counties started before Thanksgiving. (Republicans tried to bar voting on Saturday but lost in court last week.)

The early turnout numbers suggest that voters are not deterred by the 2021 law’s tightening of voting options. On Sunday, Gabriel Sterling, the chief operating officer for Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, a Republican, tweeted that some metro Atlanta voting sites were experiencing waits of two hours. The wait at the Metropolitan Library’s first day of early voting on Saturday was as long, said We Vote, We Win’s Owens.

“We had over a two-hour wait yesterday. You usually don’t see that until the end of early voting – more towards the Election Day,” she said. “People are paying attention.”

Steven Rosenfeld is the editor and chief correspondent of Voting Booth, a project of the Independent Media Institute. He has reported for National Public Radio, Marketplace, and Christian Science Monitor Radio, as well as a wide range of progressive publications including Salon, AlterNet, The American Prospect, and many others.

This article was produced by Voting Booth, a project of the Independent Media Institute.

Shop our Store

Headlines

Editor's Blog

Trending

World