Tag: elections
Joe Biden

State Of The Union Boosted Public View Of Biden

President Joe Biden's very good State of the Union showing wasn't just a hit among Democrats. Despite criticism that Biden's address was specifically aimed at rallying Democratic voters, the speech not only tested well with viewers beyond the base, it also significantly improved Biden's standing among those viewers.

As Daily Kos' Mark Sumner pointed out, a CNN quick poll found that 64 percent of respondents viewed the speech positively, with 62 percent saying his policies would move the country in the right direction—a 17-percentage-point bump from before the speech.

Navigator Research posted similar findings from its live-reaction dial group of 33 Phoenix-area soft partisans and independents: 76% had positive reactions, with 64 percent saying Biden's policies would move the country in the right direction.

Biden's favorability rating among the dial group jumped 37 points from before and after the speech, ending at 58 percent favorable to 42 percent unfavorable.

The change in Biden's job approval rating—a tougher sell—was far smaller but still improved six points, to 33 percent approve versus 67 percent disapprove. There's still plenty of work to do in that arena.

According Navigator testing among the 33 speech-watchers, Biden's biggest improvements from pre- to post-speech came in these five areas:

1. Stands up to corporations: net change of +83 points

2. Is a strong leader: net change of +63 points

3. Is up for the job of president: net change of +60 points

4. Represents the U.S. well abroad: net change of +46 points

5. Brings people together: net change of +40 points

Early numbers from Nielsen suggested Biden's State of the Union address attracted nearly 28 million viewers—a slight uptick from last year, despite appearing on fewer networks then. But the final Nielsen numbers were even better: 32.3 million viewers tuned in, a significant 18 percent increase over 2023.

Among those viewers, Biden did himself a world of good not just from a policy standpoint but also from the perspective of: Is this guy up for the job, and are his priorities in the right place?

The Biden campaign has a lot more work to do, but the overwhelmingly positive responses to the president's speech suggest his message is also one that he and his team can sell on the campaign trail.

Reprinted with permission from Daily Kos.

Todd Young

Todd Young Becomes Third GOP Senator To Reject Trump In 2024

There are now three Senate Republicans who are declining to endorse former President Donald Trump's candidacy in the 2024 election, and that number may grow larger over the next eight months.

MSNBC columnist Steve Benen wrote that despite Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell's (R-KY) endorsement of the 45th president of the United States earlier this week, not all members of his caucus are as eager. On Friday, Sen. Todd Young (R-IN) — who represents a state Trump won by 16 points in 2020 — declined to get behind Trump's 2024 campaign for the White House while speaking with reporters on Capitol Hill.

When asked what his other issues with Trump were, Young said, "Where do I begin?" He elaborated that his chief complaint with Trump was with his indifference toward Russian President Vladimir Putin's conquest of Ukraine.

"I think President Trump's judgment is wrong in this case, Young said. "President Putin and his government have engaged in war crimes."

At one point, CNN's Manu Raju asked Young, "does it worry you that he's your party's leading presidential candidate?"

"Of course it does," Young quipped. "That's why I don't intend to support him for the Republican nomination."

"Who do you plan to support?" A reporter asked.

"I haven't decided yet," the senator responded. "But it won't be him."

While Young noted that his lack of support for Trump is for the Republican presidential primary, the 45th president is the only Republican still in the running for the GOP's nomination after former UN ambassador Nikki Haley exited the race earlier this week. The former South Carolina governor had been Trump's final opponent following the New Hampshire primary, but she suspended her campaign after losing nearly every Super Tuesday contest with the exception of Vermont. Haley did not endorse Trump in her announcement ending her campaign, and said the ex-president would have to "earn" the votes of her supporters.

Todd Young is the third Senate Republican to publicly distance himself from Trump's third bid for the White House. Previously, Sens. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) and Mitt Romney (R-UT) have said they also would not be supporting the ex-president in 2024. If Trump is convicted of felonies in any of his four upcoming criminal trials this year, it's likely other Republican elected officials may join those three in declining to support Trump.

The former president will face his first trial in Manhattan on March 25, where District Attorney Alvin Bragg has indicted him on 34 felony counts relating to hush money payments he allegedly orchestrated in 2016. His former lawyer and "fixer" Michael Cohen, who was already sentenced to three years in federal prison for facilitating those payments among other crimes, will be Bragg's star witness.

Reprinted with permission from Alternet.

Mark Harris

Alleged 2018 Election Fraudster Wins GOP Primary In North Carolina

Pastor Mark Harris — whose previous primary election win in 2018 was tossed out after an alleged election fraud scheme — has once again won the Republican nomination for a newly drawn US House district deemed as safely Republican.

FiveThirtyEight's Nathaniel Rakich tweeted that Harris officially won the Republican primary to replace outgoing Rep. Dan Bishop (R-North Carolina), who is now the GOP nominee for Attorney General in the Tar Heel state. Harris won the competitive primary in spite of a controversy from 2018 that resulted in the bipartisan North Carolina State Board of Elections calling a new election the following year.

In 2018, Harris narrowly won the general election in the Ninth Congressional District by a little more than 900 total votes against Democrat Dan McCready. However, Leslie McCrae Dowless — a consultant who worked for his campaign — was alleged to have illegally handled absentee ballots, which is a felony. Dowless was described as a "shady character" by Harris' son, John, amid allegations that he engaged in similar underhanded practices with absentee ballots in 2016.

"Witnesses told state officials that Dowless, with help of his assistants, gathered hundreds of absentee ballots from Bladen County in 2018," the AP reported. "Those workers testified they were directed to collect blank or incomplete ballots, forge signatures on them and even fill in votes for local candidates."

After investigators compiled a mountain of evidence suggesting Dowless was engaging in underhanded efforts to compromise absentee ballot voting, Harris pivoted from urging election officials to certify his victory to calling for a new election. He ultimately avoided criminal charges in the investigation.

"Through the testimony I've listened to over the past three days, I believe a new election should be called," Harris said at the time. "It's become clear to me that the public's confidence in the 9th District seat general election has been undermined to an extent that a new election is warranted."

But now, with his primary victory on Tuesday night, Harris is poised to cruise to a general election victory in the new district in spite of the scandal that rocked his political career six years ago. This is especially true given how GOP-friendly the district has become after the North Carolina Supreme Court adopted a map regarded as one of the most biased redistricting efforts in recent memory.

In late 2023, the Brennan Center for Justice reported that the Tar Heel State's highest court reversed a prior 2022 decision rejecting maps that were deemed unfair to voters of color. That decision notably came after a 2022 election in which two conservatives won two additional seats on the court, granted in response to a request from Republican state lawmakers. The new, more conservative court concluded that gerrymandering was a "political" question and that the judiciary didn't need to involve itself.

While the old maps each had seven predominantly Republican districts and seven Democratic districts, the new maps effectively erased four of those Democratic seats.

"The new map easily ranks, along with Texas’s, as one of the two most extreme congressional maps currently in place," the Brennan Center wrote. "Indeed, the Republicans’ new North Carolina gerrymander is so durable that even an exceptionally strong Democratic wave year (think 2018) would not dislodge it. Even under the rosiest of foreseeable scenarios, Democrats win at most four of 14 seats. Put another way, Democrats could win a solid majority of the ballots cast for Congress, but their candidates would win less than 30 percent of seats thanks to Republicans’ carefully engineered gerrymander."

In addition to Harris' victory, Republican Mark Robinson's victory in the GOP gubernatorial primary also made headlines on Tuesday night. Robinson has called the LGBTQ+ community "filth," and likened them to "maggots" and "flies." He also said the Covid-19 pandemic was a "globalist" plot to oust Donald Trump from the White House.

Reprinted with permission from Alternet.

Why Trump's Mounting Legal Bills Are Bankrupting His 2024 Campaign

Why Trump's Mounting Legal Bills Are Bankrupting His 2024 Campaign

Former President Donald Trump has already spent more than $50 million in donor contributions on his own legal bills in 2023. Now, his four upcoming criminal trials are threatening to empty out his PAC accounts with still nine months to go before election day.

In a Wednesday article, Bloomberg reported on the ex-president's financial conundrum as the meat of the election season looms in the coming months. The super PAC he's been using to pay his lawyers — MAGA, Inc. — has less than $27 million left, with Trump still having to pay for legal representation for criminal trials in Manhattan, US District Courts in Florida and Washington, DC and in Fulton County, Georgia all while still running a nationwide presidential campaign.

This means that Trump is running out of options to raise the money needed to accomplish both tasks of having legal representation in multiple jurisdictions and running a competitive campaign. He can tap into his existing pool of small donors, or he can raid the Republican National Committee's coffers. However, pursuing either of those avenues will make it even harder for Republicans to catch up to Democrats in the money race in competitive House and Senate races.

"Our mission is straightforward – maximize the Republican Party’s resources to get President Trump elected," Trump senior advisor Chris LaCivita stated.

Trump has so far been able to pay his legal bills using a complex scheme involving transfers and refunds between both MAGA Inc. and Save America, which is another Trump-allied super PAC. MAGA Inc. has reportedly spent 71 cents of every dollar raised in 2023 to pay the former president's legal team.

According to Bloomberg, Save America has, to date, paid out nearly $10 million for Trump's legal expenses under an agreement in which 10% of online contributions will pay for the former president's attorneys. But his campaign and other pro-Trump groups have already spent roughly $14 million more than they've raised, with no sign of those costs slowing down. Trump's super PACs — which can raise unlimited sums of money — are likely to rely more heavily on high-dollar donors like Home Depot founder Bernie Marcus and oil baron Timothy Dunn, who is CEO of Crownquest Operating, LLC.

The former president may also not be able to rely on his own wealth to pay for his lawyers or fund an expensive campaign given the legal judgments he's already facing. A New York jury recently found him liable for defamation, ordering him to pay writer E. Jean Carroll $88.3 million. Judge Arthur Engoron is also expected to hand down his verdict as soon as this week in the civil fraud trial he's been overseeing since last fall. Trump may be ordered to pay as much as $370 million in damages for false financial statements the Trump Organization submitted to state authorities.

[EDITOR'S NOTE: On Feburary 16, Judge Engoron ordered Trump to pay $364 million in civil penalties, plus interest; fined his sons Donald Jr. and Eric Trump $2 million each, and canceled the Trump Organization's New York business certificates for three years.}

Reprinted with permission from Alternet.