Tag: history
Kevin Hassett

As Trump Recession Looms, Fox Hastily Rewrites Economic History

During a March 12 appearance on Fox, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett rosily predicted strong growth for the American economy in the first quarter of 2025 and dismissed consumer confidence surveys indicating fears of a looming recession. Hassett boldly stated: “I'll give you an expectation that GDP growth is going to be 2-2.5% in the first quarter, at least,” even as the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow estimate at the time predicted a contraction.

Now that the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ advance estimate has shown that GDP “decreased at an annual rate of 0.3 percent in the first quarter of 2025,” Fox anchor Sandra Smith has acknowledged that it was “a reversal from 2.4% growth in the fourth quarter [of 2024].”

However, Smith also downplayed the contraction, saying, “Some might say that wasn’t as big a drop as anticipated considering the sharp change in policies.”

Yet, as University of Michigan economist Justin Wolfers noted on April 21, dozens of economic forecasters had been consistently downgrading their expectations of economic growth since President Donald Trump took office in January.

Reprinted with permission from Media Matters.

President Donald Trump

Tariffs? Now You See 'Em, Now You Don't

The Trump tariff story keeps getting crazier. It may seem like ancient history now, but it was just over three weeks ago that Donald Trump gave us “Liberation Day,” a set of massive tariffs on imports from almost every country in the world, including the uninhabited Heard and McDonald islands off the coast of Antarctica.

The tariffs were billed as “reciprocal” even though they bore no relationship to any tariffs or other trade barriers these countries impose on U.S. exports. Incredibly, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, actually defended the Heard and McDonald Islands’ tariff, insisting that it was not a mistake but rather to prevent transshipment from other countries attempting to evade tariffs.

Lutnick’s explanation was obviously absurd. First, they left many other uninhabited islands without tariffs, apparently leaving the door open for transshipment through them. More importantly, if our customs staff really can’t catch items coming in from uninhabited islands, then they will be completely useless dealing with a complex system of tariffs charging vastly different rates between countries and on different products from the same country. The bottom line is that we yet again see how the Trump administration finds itself unable to admit a mistake.

But back to the timeline, as the markets were crashing Trump backed away on April 9th, eliminating his so-called reciprocal tariffs and said that he would lower his tariff on most countries to 10 percent. Note that this is still a very large tariff. When we negotiated trade deals with Mexico, Canada, and other countries their average tariffs were already well below 10 percent. In the context of “reciprocal” tariffs that were as high as 40 or 50 percent, Trump’s fallback tariff seemed low, but not by pre-Trump real world standards.

Trump boasted that a reason for the rollback was that 75 countries around the world had called to negotiate with him, although he refused to give the list of countries. Trump also went ahead and imposed 25 percent taxes on imports of steel and aluminum, which went into effect in March. He imposed 25 percent taxes on imports of cars and car parts which went into effect at the start of this month.

The big tariff that Trump did not delay on April 9 was the 104 percent tax on imports from China. He actually raised this to 124 percent in response to China’s retaliation. He raised his tax further to 154 percent a few days later and some items are even subject to higher taxes. In addition to its retaliatory tariffs, China also announced that it was suspending exports of rare earth minerals which are essential for many manufacturing processes in the United States. It also is boycotting U.S. soybeans, which means U.S. soybean farmers are losing their largest customer.

But then Trump decided to exempt Smartphones and a number of other electronic devices from his massive taxes on China’s imports. Whether this was due to a special relationship with Tim Cook, Apple’s CEO, or concern about outraged consumers looking at $2,000 iPhones is anyone’s guess.

The tariff game is still far from over. On Wednesday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the tariff levels between the U.S. and China were not sustainable and Trump hinted they would likely come down soon, even though there was no evidence of high level negotiations. These comments got a great reaction from financial markets, leading to big stock rallies, but left open the question as to the purpose of the tariffs.

Just to remind everyone, if we go back to “Liberation Day,” Trump’s tariffs were supposed to be about bringing manufacturing back to the United States and ending our trade deficits. Many of us pointed out that this was unlikely to work even in the best case scenario. But if the tariffs were just a negotiating ploy, or a way for Trump to extort favors, they are certainly not going to have much impact on manufacturing. They may make Trump even richer, but no one will invest in the United States based on a tariff that can disappear in a year or even a week.

I wrote before on how Trump seems to have brought Biden’s factory construction boom to an end. His now you see them, now you don’t tariffs clearly will not help this picture.

Reprinted with permission from Dean Baker Substack.

Under Trump Regime, America Is Wide Open For Corruption

Under Trump Regime, America Is Wide Open For Corruption

Is America open for corruption now? Unabashedly? Nakedly? Are we tossing aside not just our hard-won victories over infectious diseases but also the more than hundred-year battle against fraud, bribery and graft?

Honest, clean government doesn't follow automatically from democracy. Before civil service reform, the wealthy or well-connected were able to line their pockets by bribing public officials. The Credit Mobilier scandal, which featured bribes to a dozen congressmen paid in the 1860s by railroad executives, was just one example of a widespread plague.

But just as we were able to defeat smallpox, measles and diphtheria with sensible public health initiatives, Americans were able to beat back public corruption. Reformers, calling themselves Mugwumps and Progressives, animated by opposition to the spoils system, passed laws demanding transparency, requiring a nonpartisan civil service, and paying salaries to public servants so that they would no longer have to rely on a percentage of fees or taxes collected.

And what do you know, it worked! American public administration became much more efficient, the nation became a better place in which to conduct business, and — one almost blushes to extol this in our era — there was a net increase in justice and fairness.

Public corruption is never completely vanquished of course. Look no further than former Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez's gold bars and hundreds of thousands of dollars in cash in his bedroom. (He claimed not to trust banks.) Clean government requires constant vigilance from the police, prosecutors and the courts. It requires a consensus in society that this is crucial, and journalists on the lookout for tales of venality and malversation. There are also tons of civil society groups dedicated to this. They're known affectionately as "goo-goos" for "good government guys." They do more than guard against corruption; they're also committed to good policy and implementation. And all of that helps to make the United States a first world nation.

Or it did.

In his first month back in the White House, Donald Trump is yanking the rug out from under open, honest government and signaling a complete reversal to a time of rank corruption. There may be no historical analogue to the level of corruption Trump is inaugurating.

One reversal is even conveniently labeled. Trump has issued an executive order to Attorney General Pam Bondi to cease enforcing the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act, which forbids American companies from paying bribes abroad. Correspondingly, he has shut down the units in the FBI, State Department and the Department of Homeland Security that were thwarting foreign influence operations in American elections.

Trump has fired 17 inspectors general from federal agencies. Those IGs provide independent oversight and serve to unmask government abuses. If the DOGE project were even remotely sincere, Trump would be adding and empowering more IGs, not firing them. No, the presence of truly independent watchdogs is a threat to the Trumpist project, which is permitting agencies to be used to reward friends and punish foes.

That reward/punish metric was the operating principle in the case of New York City Mayor Eric Adams. Toss out the principle of blind justice (so antique) and bring on the distortion of the prosecutorial power for nakedly political ends. Pause the Adams prosecution in return for assistance in rounding up illegal immigrants, but leave the sword dangling over the mayor's head (the government asked that the criminal case be dismissed "without prejudice," meaning that it could be reopened at a later date) to compel total obedience.

The Office of Special Counsel was created in the post-Watergate era to oversee whistleblower complaints, prevent prohibited personnel practices and enforce the Hatch Act, among other duties. (Despite the similar name, it is entirely separate from special counsels, like Jack Smith, who are appointed by the Justice Department.) Trump attempted to fire the current special counsel, Hampton Dellinger, but his firing has been stayed by a court, for now. The director of the public integrity section of the Justice Department was not so fortunate. He was reassigned, and three "anti-kleptocracy" units crucial to targeting the assets of foreign corrupt actors in several countries were shut down.

It is all friends/enemies now. Trump just ended a database on police misconduct. Police misconduct, after all, may be useful in the coming months and years.

Trump extended his personal reach to Brazil, where fellow coup plotter Jair Bolsonaro is on trial for siccing a mob on his own capital. Trump's company is suing the judge in the case, accusing him of illegally censoring right-wing voices. The unmistakable signal: We like coup plotters as long as they're Trump pals. A fortiori the Jan. 6 insurrectionists Trump pardoned en masse. Not so much as a nod toward making individual evaluations.

Trump pardoned Rod Blagojevich, withdrew felony charges against Rep. Jeffrey Fortenberry (R-NE) and had the DOJ attempt to drop criminal charges against Rep. Andy Ogles (R-TN).

And it's hard to know where even to begin to describe the walking conflict of interest that is Elon Musk, who, with no transparency, is reportedly terminating all manner of government agencies and offices, including many that touch on his business interests.

Trump's America no longer fights the old foes of good government. It has hung a giant neon sign on our door proclaiming Open for Corruption.

Mona Charen is policy editor of The Bulwark and host of the "Beg to Differ" podcast. Her new book, Hard Right: The GOP's Drift Toward Extremism, is available now.

Reprinted with permission from Creators.


Rising Egg Prices

Rising Egg Prices? Totally Donald Trump's Fault!

During the campaign, Donald Trump stood before a table of groceries, a box of eggs included, and promised: "When I win, I will immediately bring prices down, starting on day one." It's now past day 14, and eggs prices are hitting record highs. Or to use a Trumpian locution, egg prices are the worst they've been in history.

You surely heard that Waffle House raised the price of its breakfasts by 50 cents an egg? Or that 100,000 eggs — valued at $40,000 — were just stolen from a single store in Pennsylvania?

Where are prominent Democrats emoting in supermarket aisles, hyperventilating on X or renting garments on the steps of the Capitol over this great injustice? It happened on Trump's watch breaking a sacred promise.

As of this typing, Trump has yet to blame egg prices on DEI or Hunter Biden. He hasn't said, as George Conway playfully tweeted, "THIS IS TOTALLY KAMALA HARRIS'S FAULT." Trump probably doesn't want to draw attention to the matter.

But now that Trump's in charge, his propagandists have discovered the bird flu, which killed egg-laying chickens during the Biden years. The influenza A viruses obviously haven't gotten the memo that they were supposed to disappear on Inauguration Day. That has Trump supporters hollering about the unfairness of blaming the MAGA god for an act of God.

But is it unfair for Democrats to fight unfairness with their own unfairness? After all, Trump unfairly blames everything on them.

The power of these lies is threefold. One, much of the public reads it as genuine criticism. Two, the target must spend time and energy explaining what the truth is. And a third advantage not equally shared: Many Republican followers are fully aware of the falsehoods but simply enjoy the discomfort they visit on Democrats.

Trump blamed the tragic plane crash in Washington on DEI. Those diversity, equity and inclusion policies will not be missed by many of us, but they had zero to do with the air disaster. Bringing them up, however, let Trump play around with racist and sexist innuendo.

Democrats could have countered with the verifiable truth that there were no commercial air disasters during the Biden administration. What's gone wrong since Trump took over? Democrats could have claimed that Trump's mania for deregulating has already brought laxness to air safety. And his vow to ax the jobs of government workers has left traffic control towers demoralized and understaffed.

Perhaps Democrats didn't want to stoop that low, but they surely could have come up with a bolder response than Chuck Schumer's drone before the mics. The Senate minority leader complained that Trump's unfounded explanation was "idle speculation" exploiting a terrible tragedy. His voice seemed to come out of a Victrola whose turntable was losing speed.

Maybe Democrats should ignore me on this. Ideally, one ought not unfairly blame anyone for anything. And Democrats have not been immune to attributing unrelated causes to things that went wrong under Republican governance. But their lying generally wasn't so blatant and gleeful.

Now a brief foray into the fact-based world: Economists say that Trump's trade wars will raise the cost of food still higher. And so would his plans to deport farm workers without the proper papers. Be prepared.

Now let's go back. There was a time when you didn't have to mortgage your home to buy breakfast. Perhaps if I act now and sell some stock, I can afford to take my family of four to Waffle House for a two-egg breakfast, side of bacon. With tip, that would cost we hardworking Americans more than $40. Shocking inflation.

AND THIS IS TOTALLY DONALD TRUMP'S FAULT!

Reprinted with permission from Creators.

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