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Tag: women voters

Pew’s Validated Post-Election Poll Details Biden’s 2020 Win

Reprinted with permission from Daily Kos

Overall participation in the 2020 election among U.S. adults rose seven points from 2016 to reach 66 percent last year. A new analysis of validated voters from Pew Research Center (which provides a bigger, more reliable sample than exit polls) built on several of the 2020 trends that have already been reported. Here're some of the key takeaways:

New 2020 Voters

One in 4 voters in 2020, or 25 percent, had not voted in 2016. About six percent of those new 2020 voters turned out in 2018, spiking participation in that midterm election. And voters who turned out in 2018 after skipping the 2016 presidential election were about twice as likely to back Joe Biden over Donald Trump in 2020.

But the 19 percent of new voters who came out in 2020 after skipping both 2016 and the midterms divided up almost evenly among Biden and Trump, 49 percent-47 percent. However, what was most notable about that group of new 2020 voters was the age disparity, writes Pew:

Among those under age 30 who voted in 2020 but not in either of the two previous elections, Biden led 59 percent to 33 percent, while Trump won among new or irregular voters ages 30 and older by 55 percent to 42 percent. Younger voters also made up an outsize share of these voters: Those under age 30 made up 38 percent of new or irregular 2020 voters, though they represented just 15 percent of all 2020 voters.

Third Party

Between 2016 and 2020, the electorate apparently got the memo that rolling the dice on a third-party candidate against Trump was effectively rolling the dice on democracy.

While six percent of 2016 voters cast a ballot for one of several third-party candidates, just two percent of the electorate voted third party in 2020.

Overall, third-party 2016 voters who turned out in 2020 voted 53 percent-36 percent for Biden over Trump, with 10 percent opting for a third-party candidate.

Suburban Voters

Biden made a solid nine-point gain with suburban voters, winning 54 percent of their vote compared to Hillary Clinton's 45 percent share.

This shift was also seen among White voters: Trump narrowly won White suburban voters by four points in 2020 (51 percent-47 percent); he carried this group by 16 points in 2016 (54 percent -- 38 percent).

Latino Voters

While Biden still won a 59 percent majority of Latino voters, Trump made double-digit gains among the demographic, winning 38 percent of them. In 2016, Clinton carried Latino voters 66 percent -- 28 percent.

One noteworthy feature of the 2020 election was the wide education gap among Hispanic voters. In 2020, Biden won college-educated Hispanic voters 69 percent to 30 percent. At the same time, Biden's advantage over Trump among Hispanic voters who did not have a college degree was far narrower (55 percent to 41 percent).

That's likely one reason that Democrats did so well with Latino voters in 2018, winning them 72 percent -- 25 percent, according to Pew. The higher one's education level, the more likely one is to vote in a midterm election.

Men Vs. Women

In 2016, Trump won men by 11 points, but in 2020 they split almost even between Trump and Biden, 50 percen -- 48 perecent, respectively. Women stayed roughly as loyal to Democrats in both presidential elections, with Biden garnering 55 percent to Clinton's 54 percent, but Trump increased his share of the female vote by five points in 2020 compared to 2016, 44 percent -- 39 percent.

As has been previously reported, Biden made gains among white men while Trump increased his showing among white women.

In 2016, Trump won White men by 30 points (62 percent to 32 percent). That gap narrowed to a 17-point margin for Trump in 2020 (57 percent to 40 percent). White women, a group sometimes categorized as swing voters and who broke nearly evenly in 2016 (47 percent for Trump to 45 percent for Clinton), favored him in 2020 (53% to 46%).

So in 2016, Trump won a plurality of white women, but in 2020 he won a narrow majority. Trump won a majority of white men in both cycles, but Biden trimmed Trump's margins in 2020 by nearly half. Overall, Trump's losses among white men and gains among white women decreased the gender gap among white voters.

White Non-College Voters

Biden gained five points among white voters with only some college or less, winning 33 percent to Clinton's 28 percent, while Trump's numbers stayed about the same at 65 percent in 2020 versus 64 percent in 2015.

Vote! Young Women Rushing To Register In Wake Of Justice Ginsburg’s Death

As the nation mourned Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg's death last Friday, a surge of women and young people registered to vote over the weekend, according to voting groups.

More than 62 percent of voters who registered were female, according to a spokesman for the nonpartisan platform Vote.org.

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White Suburban Women Ever More Eager To Dump Trump

Reprinted with permission from DailyKos

The past week delivered a crush of new stories about white college-educated women continuing their 2018 stampede away from Trump. As Markos Moulitsas noted last week, it's the only voting bloc that has moved against Trump and the Republican Party in sizable numbers since 2016, which is exactly why it could be one of the most decisive demographics of the 2020 election.

Trump seems keenly aware that he needs these female voters but, frankly, he's too preternaturally gross to woo them back into the fold. In fact, recent anecdotes suggest that many of the women who have left the GOP's camp since November 2016 realized they had made a colossal mistake within months, weeks, or even days of Trump's inauguration.

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Shifting Suburban Vote May Help Democrats Win Swing States

Reprinted with permission from Alternet

Political strategists divide U.S. voters geographically into three main categories: (1) urbanites, (2) rural voters, and (3) suburbanites. Urbanites lean reliably Democrat, while rural voters are a crucial part of the Republican base — and suburbia is full of swing voters. Reporter Zack Stanton, in an article published in Politico this week, discusses the Democratic Party's pursuit of female suburban voters and why "the 2020 election is the story of suburban women."

"What demographers are noticing is that America's suburbs are growing and becoming more diverse," Stanton explains. "And that is contributing to a massive political shift that is remaking the electoral map in lasting ways."

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Trump’s Suburban Support Collapses Into Gender Chasm

Reprinted with permission from Alternet

Remember when all we ever heard about were former Democrats who defected to vote for Donald Trump in 2016? Would they really stick with Trump? Could Democrats ever win them back? Political reporters spent a solid three years perseverating over nothing but disaffected Democrats who might be permanently wed to the GOP moving forward.

Well, good news—political reporters are now looking elsewhere for their dog-bites-man electoral stories. The new shiny objects of 2020 are the once reliably pro-Republican suburbs turning on Trump. As we saw in the 2018 midterms, if enough college-educated GOP voters run toward Democrats, they can neutralize and, in some critical states, more than offset non-college white Democrats who gravitated toward Trump in 2016.

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Trump Flubs Desperate Appeal For ‘Housewives’ Vote

Reprinted with permission from Alternet

Almost nothing President Donald Trump ever does is subtle. When he tries to appeal to specific voting demographics, he often lacks the finesse to communicate the essential idea that he doesn't just care about them for their votes — he actually shares their values.

That's why he can easily espouse bigoted ideas even when trying to court specific groups of voters, such as when he told African-Americans that they are "living in hell in the inner cities" or when he told Jewish voters that supporting Democrats demonstrates "either a total lack of knowledge or great disloyalty."

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White America Proves How Much It Hates Women (And Latinos, Muslims, Blacks And Jews)

Reprinted with permission from AlterNet

For many of the women of America—excluding those for whom the importance of their white, Christian identity supercedes that of the daily cruelties of misogyny—election night 2016 was the bitterest of pills. When Donald J. Trump takes the oath of office as he assumes the presidency, America will welcome into the White House a man who has boasted of sexually assaulting women, of referring to his opponent in negative, gendered terms, and of using his wealth and power to allow him to walk in on women in states of undress.

Nice goin’, America!

For this feminist, at least as difficult to grapple with as the Trump victory itself are the numbers of women who voted for him. Yes, Hillary Clinton won a majority of the female vote, but Trump still convinced 42 percent of women who voted to vote for him, according to exit polls posted by CNN. Among white women, Trump won the majority, 53 percent. And Trump won a far greater number of white, college-educated women than anyone expected: 45 percent.

In their day-after assessments of what went wrong for their candidate, liberals and progressives can be expected to advance the economic argument, the one that says it was the white people left behind in the new economy who elected Trump. But that’s just too simplistic an explanation to cover the whole reason for his victory. This did not happen simply because of economic displacement; it’s about changes in the social order.

Trump and Clinton evenly split the vote between people who earn more than $100,000 per year, and Trump won among those who earn between $50,000-$100,000. It was Clinton who won a strong majority among those who earn less than $50,000.

No, the Trump victory is not about the economic suffering of his voters; it’s a backlash to a new societal composition that allows non-white people to compete alongside whites; one in which non-Hispanic whites are shrinking in the share of U.S. population they represent. And one in which a woman dared to presume to seek the presidency.

On Election Day morning, I dashed from the taxi stand in front of Grand Central Terminal in Manhattan to the cab I was directed to by the dispatcher, when a young man accused me of rudely walking in front of him, and began screaming that I was a c*nt. “I hope Trump wins,” he said, looking me over. He continued yelling, hurling the c-word at me, saying I looked like garbage, saying he was glad his mother didn’t look like me.

Shocking, yes, but easy to write off as a chance encounter with a crazy person. But when I posted on social media and listservs about the incident, women began telling their own stories of similar recent encounters—a journalist was groped coming out of a Trump rally, another was yelled at. And then there’s the account published by Alison Turkos on Rewire of a particularly creepy act of aggression directed at her for the sin of wearing a Hillary T-shirt—a man sidled up to her as she waited at a street corner for the light to change, and whispered in her ear that Clinton was a c*nt and so was she.

Welcome to the Age of Trump. The president-elect has normalized this kind of behavior. After all, when Sid Miller, a Texas politician on the Trump campaign’s Agriculture Advisory Committee referred to Clinton herself by that awful, dehumanizing word, Trump never batted an eye, and even lauded Miller afterward for touting poll numbers that reflected positively on Trump. It was another of what Trump’s fanboys on the anti-Semitic, racist alt-right would call a Trump wink-wink. He didn’t specifically reward Miller for using the c-word to describe Clinton; he just talked up the tweet in which Miller did so.

Trump himself has made a habit of publicly demeaning women, sometimes sexually, even saying it would be OK for a radio host to refer to Trump’s daughter as “a hot piece of ass.” And who needs to be reminded of that Access Hollywood tape? Note, however, that Trump’s appeal to his voters is not something that exists in spite of such evidence of the president-elect’s misogyny; the appeal is in the misogyny.

In his pact with leaders of the religious right, Trump promised to appoint only anti-choice justices to the Supreme Court, and to defund Planned Parenthood. With a Republican House and Senate churning out anti-woman legislation, he’ll be expected to append his signature, and there’s no reason to believe he won’t.

The women of America—especially women of color—are in for it. For the other part of Trump’s appeal to his voters is his racism. And his nativism. And his religious bigotry. This was the backlash election to beat all backlash elections—backlash against a black president with a foreign-sounding name, and against the portent of a woman president.

For all of its glorious machinery, the Democratic Party (and the liberal establishment) has consistently failed to address the strength of the right-wing strain of populism in American politics. Designed for the launching and working of cyclical elections, the party apparatus, however sophisticated, is ill-suited to the sort of sustained base-building required to counter that of the right.

The Trump presidency is the result of more than 50 years of organizing and infrastructure-building by right-wing leaders, first among them Phyllis Schlafly, whose political career began with the 1964 Goldwater campaign, and reached its pinnacle with the defeat of the Equal Rights Amendment in 1982. Before her death in September, Schlafly endorsed Trump. One imagines her today, bursting with pride in the great beyond.

Adele M. Stan is AlterNet’s senior Washington editor, and a weekly columnist for The American Prospect. Follow her on Twitter @addiestan.

IMAGE: Supporters of Donald Trump rally in front of the White House. REUTERS/Joshua Roberts

Trump’s ‘Nasty Woman’ Comment Becomes Rallying Cry For Female Voters

Donald Trump just couldn’t help himself. At the third and final presidential debate in Las Vegas Wednesday night, after calling Hillary Clinton a liar, a thief and a criminal, he buckled under a crack she made about his character. Discussing her plan for changing the ceiling on taxable income for Social Security, she noted that even Trump would only have to pay an incremental increase under her plan, “assuming he can’t figure out a way to get out of it.”

“Such a nasty woman,” Trump interjected.

And with that, every smart woman who’s sought to make her way in the world summoned a memory.

Maybe it was a schoolyard memory of a boy she bested in an argument. Maybe a memory of a coworker telling her some guy at the workplace had said that about her after she made a forceful defense of an idea. Maybe some random guy on the street who felt rejected after she ignored his order to smile on command.

Note that Trump didn’t simply say, “that’s unfair,” or maybe, “that’s nasty.” It was important to label Hillary Clinton, the person, in a gendered way. His opponent is not merely “nasty,” she is “a nasty woman,” something far more horrifying.

Because, in his estimation, women are always supposed to be nice to Trump. It’s their duty, and his right to expect. Grab ‘em by the pussy, and expect them to be nice. Walk in on them in their dressing rooms, and expect them to be nice. Tell a radio shock jock it’s okay to call your daughter “a great piece of ass,” and expect her to be nice. It’s his birthright, after all, to have all women, everywhere, be nice to him, regardless of what he says or does to them. Surely, all of the women in his life are nice to hime—but they all report to him, in one way or another.

I’ve been called nasty simply for arguing politics with a man at a party. Nasty for trying to keep a know-nothing at a workplace from doing something that would have harmed the company. Nasty for challenging brogressives on their support of a neo-libertarian. But I digress….

Yet if Trump can turn even a question about the Supreme Court to an answer about how he felt treated by an individual justice (Ruth Bader Ginsburg said mean things about me!), why can’t I make this debate all about me?

I’ve been grabbed by the pussy, rated on my appearance, walked in on while dressing, had my rights abridged by the law, my former status as a menstruator mocked, and my intelligence insulted when I was deemed—physical flaws notwithstanding—too hot to be smart. And you know what? So have a lot of other women; women who vote.

The more Trump makes this election all about himself, the more women of America will choose to make it about themselves. And in that event, Trump clearly loses. Not that he’ll necessarily accept the outcome.

Adele M. Stan is AlterNet’s senior Washington editor, and a weekly columnist for The American Prospect. Follow her on Twitter @addiestan.

Reprinted with permission from Alternet

Photo: Republican U.S. presidential nominee Donald Trumpspeaks as Democratic U.S. presidential nominee Hillary Clinton listens during their third and final 2016 presidential campaign debate at UNLV in Las Vegas, Nevada, U.S., October 19, 2016. REUTERS/Mark Ralston