Tag: virginia elections 2014
Midterm Roundup: Democrats Find New Voters

Midterm Roundup: Democrats Find New Voters

Here are some interesting stories on the midterm campaigns that you may have missed on Thursday, September 25:

• Democrats have long touted the strength of their field operation, and now they are starting to see results. According to a Washington Post report, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has helped register 60,000 new voters in 48 districts — a first for the committee, and a potentially crucial counterweight to the expected voter dropoff that usually plagues Democrats in midterm elections.

• Senator Pat Roberts (R-KS) continues to struggle in his re-election campaign against Independent challenger Greg Orman. The latest stumble: Newly revealed documents in which Roberts lists his primary residence in Fairfax County, Virginia — not in Kansas.

• Senator Mark Warner (D-VA) continues to lead comfortably in his re-election race. The latest Quinnipiac poll shows him up 9 percent over Republican nominee Ed Gillespie; although that’s the closest Gillespie has polled in weeks, he still trails Warner by 15.8 percent in the Real Clear Politics poll average.

• A new Public Policy Polling survey finds Republican Rep. Cory Gardner narrowly leading Democratic senator Mark Udall in Colorado’s Senate race, 47 to 45 percent. That’s within the poll’s margin of error, but it’s the latest in a series of surveys to show Gardner gaining. Udall leads by less than 1 percent in the poll average.

• And Democrat Kelly Kultala is making waves in her longshot bid to unseat Rep. Kevin Yoder (R-KS), with an attack ad criticizing him for “skinny-dipping on the job.” Yoder was one of several House Republicans to disrobe and jump into the Sea of Galilee during a 2012 trip to Israel.

Photo: hjl via Flickr

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GOP Senate Candidate: Minimum-Wage Jobs Are Where Teens Play Softball, Drink Beer [Video]

GOP Senate Candidate: Minimum-Wage Jobs Are Where Teens Play Softball, Drink Beer [Video]

Many Republicans have made tone-deaf statements on the minimum wage throughout the 2014 campaign season, but perhaps none has been as puzzling as this take from Virginia Senate candidate Ed Gillespie (R).

At a Virginia Beach campaign stop in May, which was flagged this week by Virginia Democrats, Gillespie explained his minimum-wage opposition to his audience.

“I don’t support a federally mandated minimum wage,” Gillespie said. “If the states want to raise the minimum wages — and municipalities like New York City — that’s fine. They should be free to do that, and they do it.”

Gillespie then cited a Congressional Budget Office report that projected that raising the minimum wage to $10.10 per hour could cost the economy 500,000 jobs, and suggested that most minimum-wage earners are teenagers just entering the workforce.

“A lot of those jobs are second earners in the family. A lot of them are first-time workers, it’s the first job they’ve ever had,” Gillespie claimed. “A minimum-wage job is where you learn to get to work on time. It’s where you learn the great feeling at the end of getting that paycheck and knowing you gave an honest week’s work. It’s where you learn the social aspect of work, where you play on a softball league or go for a beer after work.”

Gillespie’s statement is riddled with factual inaccuracies. The vast majority of minimum-wage earners are not teenagers playing softball and drinking beer (which would be illegal, by the way); 88 percent are 20 years of age or older, 36 percent are married, and 28 percent are parents.

Furthermore, the CBO report which Gillespie referenced does not flatly declare that a minimum wage hike would kill half a million jobs; rather, it states that a $10.10 minimum wage would contract employment by somewhere between a “very slight decrease” and 1 million jobs. It also pointed out that a minimum-wage increase would result in higher wages for 16.5 million workers — something Gillespie declined to mention.

In any case, the CBO’s warning has not proven accurate; job growth has been greater in the 13 states that increased their minimum wages in 2014 than in states that did not.

Past its questionable claims, Gillespie’s speech also presents a big political problem for the former Republican National Committee chairman. Polls consistently show that Americans strongly support raising the minimum wage; in Virginia, 66 percent support raising the commonwealth’s minimum wage while just 31 percent oppose it, according to a recent Quinnipiac poll.

Perhaps with those numbers in mind, Gillespie’s campaign contacted The Huffington Post after the video went public to insist that Gillespie does not support repealing federal minimum wage laws.

Even if voters accept that clarification, Gillespie remains a huge underdog in Virginia’s Senate race. According to The Huffington Post’spolling average, incumbent Democrat Mark Warner leads Gillespie by 19 percent.

H/T:Blue Virginia

Photo: Gage Skidmore via Flickr

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Eric Cantor’s Opponent Beat Him By Calling Out GOP Corruption

Eric Cantor’s Opponent Beat Him By Calling Out GOP Corruption

by Lee Fang, Republic Report

“All of the investment banks, up in New York and D.C., they should have gone to jail.”

That isn’t a quote from an Occupy Wall Street protester or Senator Elizabeth Warren. That’s a common campaign slogan repeated by Dave Brat, the Virginia college professor who scored one of the biggest political upsets in over a century by defeating Majority Leader Eric Cantor in the Republican primary last night.

The national media is buzzing about Brat’s victory, but for all of the wrong reasons.

Did the Tea Party swoop in and help Brat, as many in the Democratic Party are suggesting? Actually, The Wall Street Journal reports no major Tea Party or anti-establishment GOP group spent funds to defeat Cantor. Did Cantor, the only Jewish Republican in Congress, lose because of his religion, as some have suggested? There’s no evidence so far of anti-Semitism during the campaign. Was Cantor caught flatfooted? Nope; Cantor’s campaign spent close to $1 million on the race and several outside advocacy groups, including the National Rifle Association, the National Realtors Association and the American Chemistry Council (a chemical industry lobbying association) came in and poured money into the district to defeat Brat. The New York Times claims that Brat focused his campaign primarily on immigration reform. Brat certainly made immigration a visible topic in his race, but Republic Report listened to several hours of Brat stump speeches and radio appearances, and that issue came up far less than what Brat called the main problem in government: corruption and cronyism.

Brat told Internet radio host Flint Engelman that the “number one plank” in his campaign is “free markets.” Brat went on to explain, “Eric Cantor and the Republican leadership do not know what a free market is at all, and the clearest evidence of that is the financial crisis … When I say free markets, I mean no favoritism to K Street lobbyists.” Banks like Goldman Sachs were not fined for their role in the financial crisis — rather, they were rewarded with bailouts, Brat has said.

Brat, who has identified with maverick GOP lawmakers like Representative Justin Amash of Michigan, spent much of the campaign slamming both parties for being in the pocket of “Wall Street crooks” and D.C. insiders. The folks who caused the financial crisis, Brat says, “went onto Obama’s Rolodex, the Republican leadership, Eric’s Rolodex.”

During several campaign appearances, Brat says what upset him the most about Cantor was his role in gutting the last attempt at congressional ethics reform. “If you want to find out the smoking gun in this campaign,” Brat told Engelman, “just go Google and type the STOCK Act and CNN and Eric Cantor.” (On Twitter, Brat has praised the conservative author Peter Schweizer, whose work on congressional corruption forced lawmakers into action on the STOCK Act.)

The STOCK Act, a bill to crack down on insider trading, was significantly watered down by Cantor in early 2012. The lawmaker took out provisions that would have forced Wall Street “political intelligence” firms to register as traditional lobbyists would, and removed a section of the bill to empower prosecutors to go after public officials who illegally trade on insider knowledge. And Brat may be right to charge that Cantor’s moves on the STOCK Act were motivated by self interest. Cantor played a leading role in blocking legislation to fix the foreclosure crisis while his wife and his stock portfolio were deeply invested in mortgage banks.

Most self-described Tea Party Republicans, including Rand Paul and Ted Cruz, have railed against Washington in a general sense without calling out the powerful – often Republican-leaning — groups that wield the most power.

Not Brat.

“Eric is running on Chamber of Commerce and Business Roundtable principles,” Brat told a town hall audience, later clarifying that he meant the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, the largest lobbying trade group in the country. He also called out the American Chemistry Council for funding ads in his race with Cantor, telling a radio host that his opponent had asked his “crony capitalist friends to run more ads.” Brat repeats his mantra: “I’m not against business. I’m against big business in bed with big government.”

Indeed, Cantor has been a close ally to top lobbyists and the financial industry. “Many lobbyists on K Street whose clients include major financial institutions consider Cantor a go-to member in leadership on policy debates, including overhauling the mortgage finance market, extending the government backstop for terrorism insurance, how Wall Street should be taxed and flood insurance,” noted Politico following Cantor’s loss. In 2011, Cantor was caught on video promising a group of commodity speculators that he would roll back regulations on their industry.

There are many lessons to be learned from the Cantor-Brat race. For one, it’s worth reflecting on the fact that not only did Cantor easily outraise and outspend Brat by over $5 million to around $200,000 in campaign funds, but burned through a significant amount on lavish travel and entertainment instead of election advocacy. Federal Election Commission records show Cantor’s PAC spent at least $168,637 on steakhouses, $116,668 on luxury hotels (including a $17,903 charge to the Beverly Hills Hotel & Bungalows) and nearly a quarter-million on airfare (with about $140,000 in chartered flights) — just in the last year and a half!

But on the policy issues and political ramifications of this race, it’s not easy to box Brat into a neat caricature of an anti-immigration zealot or Tea Party demagogue, or, in Time’s hasty reporting, a “shopworn conservative boilerplate.” If Brat ascends to Congress, which is quite likely given the Republican-leaning district that he’ll run in as the GOP nominee, he may actually continue taking on powerful elites in Washington.

This article originally appeared on Republic Report.

AFP Photo/Jay Paul

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Immigration Reform May Not Have Killed Cantor, But It’s Definitely Dead In The House

Immigration Reform May Not Have Killed Cantor, But It’s Definitely Dead In The House

Eric Cantor’s shocking loss to David Brat in Tuesday’s Republican primary has been widely attributed to his occasional calls to reform America’s broken immigration system. But while it’s true that Brat hammered Cantor on the issue throughout the campaign, it’s not clear that “amnesty” was the reason that the House Majority Leader is soon to be out of a job.

The available polling of Virginia’s seventh congressional district does not suggest that immigration reform was the issue that swung the election. A survey released by left-leaning Public Policy Polling on Wednesday finds that immigration reform is actually quite popular within the district. According to the poll, conducted by phone on election night, 70 percent of Republican voters in VA-07 support the bipartisan immigration reform legislation which passed the Senate last summer. Only 27 percent oppose it. Furthermore, 84 percent of Republican voters say it is important to fix the immigration system, while just 15 percent say it is not important.

Of course, previous polls of VA-07 were proven completely wrong on election night, and PPP’s numbers should similarly be taken with a grain of salt. But there are other reasons to believe that immigration isn’t solely responsible for Cantor’s defeat.

For one, if Republicans in the district really were looking for a candidate who would kill immigration reform efforts, they could do a lot worse than Eric Cantor. Despite his mild tone on immigration issues, the majority leader has gone out of his way to kill even the most politically benign reform measures (such as the ENLIST Act, a bipartisan provision which would have allowed undocumented immigrants who were brought to the country as children to serve in the military.) And Cantor spent millions making sure that his constituents knew that he is “the No. 1 guy standing between the American people and immigration reform,” while Brat spent only $122,793 total in his campaign to brand Cantor as an “amnesty” advocate.

Furthermore, other Republicans representing conservative electorates have not suffered from their actual support for immigration reform. As many Democrats have pointed out, while Cantor was conceding defeat on Tuesday night, Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC) — a member of the “Gang of Eight” that crafted the Senate’s immigration reform bill — was crushing his primary opponents in a landslide, despite their charges that his re-election would lead to “Grahamnesty.” Similarly, Rep. Renee Ellmers’ (R-NC) support for immigration reform did nothing to stop her from winning her primary.

It seems likely that Cantor’s personal unpopularity had more to do with his stunning loss than the charges that he is weak on immigration reform. The aforementioned PPP poll found Cantor’s approval rating at 30 percent within the district, with 63 percent disapproving. The Republican leadership of the House fared even worse, with a 26 percent approval rating and 67 percent disapproval. As Jeff Schaprio writes in the Richmond Times-Dispatch, Cantor never realized the danger of being the public face of an unpopular Congress within his district:

Cantor’s maneuvering on immigration was illustrative of a larger issue: a perception within Republican circles that Cantor, in his determination to succeed John Boehner as Speaker, seemed more interested in positioning for the next phase of the nonstop news cycle than embracing a distinct agenda.

Further, Cantor — a self-styled Young Gun, who along with Paul Ryan, the 2012 vice presidential nominee, was a symbol of Yuppie Republicanism — became a distant figure to many of his Virginia constituents, seen only on Sunday talk shows and in the pages of national newspapers.

Cantor’s priority was traveling the country, raising money from corporate and financial leaders. The torrent of Cantor-generated cash would shore up a smaller but more influential constituency for the often-aloof lawyer: a handful of conservatives within the Republican caucus who would decide the speakership.

Even if immigration reform did not kill Cantor, however, his loss almost certainly cements its death in the House of Representatives. Although Cantor was not a helpful advocate for reform, he at least paid lip service to the idea that the immigration system must be changed. After seeing Cantor fall to a challenge from the right — and watching most of the media blame it on immigration — it’s hard to imagine other House Republicans doing the same, much less actively voting on legislation.

Cantor’s loss will ignite a competition to replace him as majority leader, or even to challenge John Boehner (R-OH) as House Speaker. Whoever wins will need to consolidate right-wing support, and arguing that the House majority should partner with Democrats on immigration reform is not a good way to do so.

It’s now almost impossible to imagine the House moving on immigration reform until after the 2014 midterms. And by then, the 2016 presidential primary campaign — and the inevitable sprint to the right that it inspires — will be getting underway.

Photo: Gage Skidmore via Flickr

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