Four New National Polls Show Biden Gaining Traction Over Trump

Everyone knows – or should know – that polls measuring the outcome of an election that will occur almost a year from today have scant predictive value – and yet over the past month, media outlets have persistently touted surveys showing Donald Trump edging Joe Biden as if the former guy has already defeated the current president. And indeed several polls did show Trump slightly ahead in a potentially disturbing trend that reinforced the dominant narrative about Biden’s weakness.

But within the past few days, four fresh polls published by reputable organizations have showed the opposite trend. Last week’s Morning Consult poll showed Trump up over Biden by three percent; this week, Morning Consult puts Biden ahead by one percent, a four-point shift in a matter of days. The Economist and YouGov released a poll last week that had Trump up by one percent; the same poll has Biden up by two percent this week, 44 to 42. A second YouGov poll that asked about voting for a third alternative also had Biden ahead by two points, 39 to 37. And a poll taken by The Canadian Press and Leger, one of the largest surveyors north of the border, likewise found Biden up 37-35 in a potential three-way race.

The details of those polls – all conducted since the temporary ceasefire and hostage release in the Gaza conflict -- matter less than the small but encouraging trend they represent. What they suggest is that if the president can extend the ceasefire as more hostages are released, while pressuring Israel to stop killing civilians, he can regain some of the crucial support that has diminished among Democratic base voters.

Nobody familiar with our “liberal media” will be shocked to learn that those four polls received little attention – although every blip that favors Trump gets headlines. No doubt they will continue in that vein, a habit that mainstream journalists seem unable to overcome. But that doesn’t mean you have to believe them, especially when the data starts to point another way.