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If Voters Blame Republicans For Shutdown, Why Are They Angry At Democrats?

With the government shut down, polls show Americans are angrier at Republicans than Democrats. That’s good news for Democrats, right?

It’s complicated. Yes, voters are upset with President Donald Trump and the GOP—largely because they’ve flatly refused to even negotiate on health care protections for millions—but Democrats aren’t getting a free pass. Despite their efforts to cut a deal, many of their own voters remain frustrated and give their leaders low marks.

“Republicans have historically been more loyal. That has wavered in a couple of elections, but it’s been generally true,” Grant Reeher, a professor of political science at Syracuse University, told Daily Kos. “The other advantage is that the Republicans currently have a president in office, and presidents have often fared better than Congress. So, in part, it’s a ‘president effect.’”

Still, you’d think Democrats would get more credit—especially now. In the days leading up to the shutdown, the party pushed for stronger health care protections. Their proposal would roll back the Medicaid cuts in Trump’s tax and immigration law, and it would extend enhanced Affordable Care Act subsidies, which are set to expire at the end of this year. At a moment when polls show Democratic voters want their leaders to fight harder, this was Democrats putting up a fight.

But so far, that fight isn’t resonating.

“When a party loses an election, they become less popular, including with their own supporters,” said David Hopkins, a political scientist at Boston College. “Their own supporters get very upset and say the party ‘blew it.’ Their voters are in a bad mood and want someone to blame, so they’ll blame the leadership of their own party for squandering the election and causing all these bad things to happen now that the other side is in power.”

Polling data backs that up. Since the last election, views of congressional Republicans have remained fairly stable, but Democrats in Congress are viewed far more negatively in comparison, according to YouGov’s tracking data.

That’s the paradox: Democratic voters demand tougher resistance to Trump, but they’re sour on their party even when it does exactly that.

The numbers are rough. A new NPR/PBS News/Marist poll shows just 26 percent of voters approve of how congressional Democrats are doing in office. And a whopping 64 percent of voters disapprove, up from 58 percent in July—and 42 percent of Democrats disapprove. Republicans in Congress do only slightly better, with 37 percent approval and 56 percent disapproval among voters.

In other words, Democrats trail Republicans by 11 percentage points on approval, even though voters overwhelmingly blame the GOP for the shutdown. That contradiction speaks volumes.

Share of survey respondents who would blame a government shutdown on Democrats in Congress, Republicans in Congress and President Donald Trump, or both parties equallyChart by Andrew Mangan/Graphic by Datawrapper

“It’s one thing to say you think Sen. [Chuck] Schumer is less to blame than President Trump, and quite another to say you support the job that Sen. Schumer is doing,” Reeher said. “The dissatisfaction among Democrats has been festering for a long time—at least back to the first Trump presidency. Many were deeply dissatisfied with [Joe] Biden as the nominee in 2020, and with the way the latter half of his term was managed, especially the campaign disaster. One small tilt favoring the Democrats on a government shutdown is not going to erase all that damage.”

“The Republicans have been more loyal and are more focused on the president—that’s what these overall numbers are reflecting,” he added.

Shutdown politics rarely deliver big policy wins. From December 2018 to January 2019, Trump shut down the government, demanding billions of dollars to build a wall along the U.S.--Mexico Border—and got nothing. In 2013, Republicans wanted to defund the ACA, kicking off a 16-day shutdown that produced little tangible results for them. At best, shutdowns offer largely symbolic wins for a party’s base. At worst, they backfire.

“I’m a skeptic about shutdown politics, but I understand the choices of the Senate Democrats because what we’re seeing in the polls is what they’re hearing,” Hopkins said. “They feel pressure to have some dramatic moment, so that’s where we are. If history is any guide, we will not end up with a real victory they can tout to their supporters.”

Maybe the problem is that voters tend not to reward effort. Resistance without real wins fades fast, and even actual achievements barely register with an exhausted public. Or maybe it’s that many Americans don’t realize Democrats can’t fully stop Trump’s agenda when they don’t hold a majority in either chamber of Congress.

The Democratic Party’s approval rating usually gets an approval boost only after it actually wins power. According to Pew’s data, their peak approval in the past decade came in early 2021, right after winning a government trifecta. And a smaller boost happened in early 2019, after they regained control of the House and wielded real power to fight Trump.

Democrats also face a structural challenge Republicans don’t: a lack of a clear leader.

Former President Joe Biden remains unpopular and is largely invisible. Former Vice President Kamala Harris lost last year’s election and didn’t connect deeply with many voters. Former President Barack Obama is nearly a decade removed from office. And while former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi once embodied the anti-Trump resistance, her successors—House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer—are hardly household names, according to Pew.

Republicans, meanwhile, still have Trump. After his 2020 loss, GOP voters didn’t splinter the way Democrats have. Some denied he lost, and even those who didn’t deny the election results still rallied around him. No alternative figure emerged to take his place.

The good news for Democrats is that these feelings aren’t permanent. As Hopkins put it, politics is as much about emotion as logic, and Democratic voters are still angry and scared. The surest way to channel that energy outward instead of inward? Start winning again.

“It seems like the next election is a million miles away, but in reality, we have more elections than any other country and there’s one right around the corner next year,” Hopkins said. “If what you really want to do is constrain Trump’s freedom of movement to implement policies, the best way to do that is to put one house of Congress in the hands of the Democrats in 2026.”

Reprinted with permission from Daily Kos

We Can See Trump's Economic Agenda Now -- And It Won't Work

At this point, it’s clear to see that the Trump administration, along with their Congressional allies, who sit on their hands when told (tariffs) and raise them when told (the budget bill), are aggressively and successfully implementing a big, new economic agenda. As I’ll describe, it won’t work. It’s wrongheaded, ill-founded, and will hurt the people they said they want to help.

But before we get into that, I will give them this: they’ve been remarkably successful at moving policy through a clunky, incalcitrant political system, in part because they’ve legislated none of it so far (should it pass, the budget bill will be their first big piece of economic legislation; their crypto/stablecoin bill is stuck in the House, though this too is part of the plan, as I note below).

When I say “remarkably successful,” I mean the rest of us should learn from them. I’ve spent many years in gov’t, including in the Obama and Biden admins, and we self-imposed infinitely more barriers on what we wanted to do then the Trumpies (the same could be said for any admin since FDR, though he, of course, went the legislative route, one the Trumpies avoid). Basically, when a lawyer said “can’t do that,” or a political adviser said, “can’t go there because X won’t like it,” we listened.

Not these folks. They just do what Trump wants, and if the courts or some constituent group doesn’t like it, too bad. Their relentless energy to jam through their agenda, evil as it is, is a site to behold. I keep thinking, what if we did this with higher minimum wages, or abortion rights, or gun control, housing and child care, etc.?

I don’t want to overstate this case. Of course, exec orders can be and are flipped on day one by a new admin. And, as a naturally cautious, risk-averse dude, I’m sympathetic to measure thrice, cut once, vs. the Trumpies, “don’t measure! Cut!” But Ds need to learn some boldness from these folks about implementing your agenda.

Okay, with that off my chest, let’s look at their economic agenda, which is now in plain sight.

—Reduce global trade in order to reduce the trade deficit and reindustrialize U.S. industry. This one will fail for many reasons. First, they mistakenly view any trade imbalance as evidence of someone ripping us off, which is no more valid than arguing your grocery ripped you off when you willingly shopped there. Second, it’s too late to unscramble the globalization omelet: almost half of our imports are inputs into our own domestic manufacturing, which is why trade wars hurt, not help, domestic production. Third, there will be no reindustrializing. Even countries with persistent trade surpluses have their manufacturing job shares in decline.

What will happen instead is higher prices for imports, some new revenue from the tariffs, some protected industries, like steel, doing better than they would have otherwise, though at the expense of other industries that buy tariff-induced, now-more-expensive outputs. Growth will, on net, be a bit slower for a time (assuming they eventually set the tariff rate and stick with it, a strong assumption), and inflation and interest rates higher for a time as well.

—Deport undocumented immigrants for the crime of being undocumented. I’ve had the misfortune of hearing Stephen Miller talk about the economics of this plan, which suggests he stuck with econ 101 for a few weeks and bailed too soon. His idea is that if we reduce the supply of labor by kicking out undocumented workers, employers will have to pay more to domestic workers.

This won’t work either. That is, as the figure shows (from Axios this AM), it will work in reducing net immigration, and, as I’ll discuss below, border control is a highly legit goal (of course, this goes way beyond that). But it will hurt the economy. For one, reducing labor supply is a negative for growth, one which will especially pinch in sectors like construction, health care, restaurants, meatpacking, hospitality services. For another, and this is a flaw in Miller and many others’ understanding of these dynamics, immigrants don’t just bring supply. They also bring demand.

With the push against immigration, "the economy will find itself slightly diminished in the long run and inflation will run a touch higher," economist Bernard Yaros writes in a report for Oxford Economics…

“The arrests cast a shadow over the local economy. Restaurant tables emptied. Kitchen workers stayed home. Fruit vendors disappeared from the streets. The number of shoppers at stores shrank, and those who still went didn't linger for long…"

"That means crops are not being picked and fruit and vegetables are rotting at peak harvest time," farmers and farmworkers told Reuters.

—Gut the safety net to very partially offset large tax cuts for the wealthy. This one is quite different from the first two because it explicitly and demonstrably hurts working class people (the above two do so as well, but as second-order effects; this one is first order). Here we have Trump in traditional R mode, passing a deficit-financed budget with which Reagan and the Bushes would be very familiar. But even they would be, like, “Wait up, Donnie. We always gave a few crumbs to the bottom end so we could say we we were helping everyone. We gave a little to the poor and a lot to the rich; we didn’t take from the bottom to give to the top.”

Like everything else here, it won’t work in terms of helping working class people because trickle-down never works. It will “work” in terms of enriching their traditional donor class. It it is also likely to eventually raise interest rates, potentially making debt service a much heavier lift than we’ve seen before (as we argue in a new paper, out soon).

—Block the production of renewable energy. This couldn’t be clearer in the big, stupid bill, and it’s so ridiculous that even traditional Rs like the Chamber of Commerce and energy companies that recognize renewable energy production is part of their and our futures don’t get it. It seems to be driven wholly by Trump’s nostalgia for coal and distaste for wind turbines blocking his view.

It won’t work in the sense that it will cost jobs, make energy more expensive, and slow us down in the global AI race.

There are other cats and dogs I won’t go into. A big one is compromising Federal Reserve independence. Kings don’t like independent Fed chairs, but this one will also backfire bigtime. History is clear that loss of central-bank independence is inflationary. (Jason Furman and I had a good talk yesterday about this and much of the rest of the above, here.) They’re also trying to normalize crypto and integrate it into the larger financial system. To say “that won’t work” is an understatement. Depending how far this highly volatile asset with zero use cases integrates into the system, it’s a future financial crisis in the making.

Also, as noted, controlling the border is, by definition, integral to having a country. And unfair trading partners exist. IOW, there are germs of truth in those parts of the agenda, but, and this is an aspect of their approach we should decidedly not emulate, they always go to the sledgehammer when the scalpel is what’s needed.

To say, as I do here, that an agenda that is in place won’t work is to make a empirical bet. I’m predicting worse growth, price, job, and interest rate outcomes than would otherwise occur. And this being economics, with millions of other variables endlessly zipping around, I could be wrong. If so—and it will take some time to know—I’ll be the first to say so. But I think and fear that I’m right.

Jared Bernstein is a former chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers under President Joe Biden. He is a senior fellow at the Council on Budget and Policy Priorities. Please consider subscribing to his column for free at Jared's Substack.

Reprinted with permission from Substack.

Senate Parliamentarian Enrages GOP With Crushing Blow To Trump's Budget Bill

The Senate parliamentarian delivered a significant setback to congressional Republicans and President Donald Trump’s extensive domestic agenda on Thursday, otherwise known as the “One Big Beautiful Bill.”

The highly unpopular legislation that’s so central to Trump’s policy goals was already on shaky ground because of its core premise: cutting entitlement programs like Medicaid to fund tax cuts for corporations and the wealthy. Now, about a week before the Trump administration’s self-imposed July 4 signing deadline, it’s also falling apart on procedural grounds.

Senate Parliamentarian Elizabeth MacDonough, a nonpartisan adviser who helps senators navigate procedures and rules, determined that several key provisions of the legislation violate the Senate’s budget rules and cannot be included under the fast-track reconciliation process Republicans are using to bypass a Democratic filibuster. Among the casualties are limits on student loan repayment options and a controversial crackdown on states’ use of the “provider tax loophole” to secure more federal Medicaid dollars.

That last one presents a big problem. Nearly every state utilizes the loophole in some form, and senators from states that depend heavily on it—especially those with rural hospitals—have warned they won’t support the bill unless it’s amended.

MacDonough’s ruling forces GOP leaders back to the drawing board. If they cannot salvage the struck-down provisions, they will lose more than $500 billion in planned spending cuts, according to Bobby Kogan, a former Democratic Senate Budget Committee staffer now with the Center for American Progress. And unless they find a work-around, Republicans would need 60 votes to keep those provisions—an unlikely prospect given the GOP’s narrow Senate margin.

Meanwhile, the tax cuts at the core of the bill remain under review.

This isn’t the first time MacDonough has blocked parts of the GOP’s wishlist. She’s previously rejected attempts to cut SNAP benefits and limit federal judges’ authority to block Trump’s policies.

Her decision has sparked immediate outrage among conservatives, with some Republicans now openly calling for her removal.

“The Senate Parliamentarian is not elected. She is not accountable to the American people. Yet she holds veto power over legislation supported by millions of voters,” Rep. Greg Steube of Florida posted on social media.

Sen. Tommy Tuberville went further, attacking the “WOKE parliamentarian” for rejecting cuts to states that fund health care for undocumented immigrants.

“This is a perfect example of why Americans hate THE SWAMP,” the Alabama senator wrote. “Unelected bureaucrats think they know better than U.S. Congressmen who are elected BY THE PEOPLE. Her job is not to push a woke agenda. THE SENATE PARLIAMENTARIAN SHOULD BE FIRED ASAP.”

Unsurprisingly, Democrats welcomed the ruling.

“Republicans are scrambling to rewrite parts of this bill to continue advancing their families lose, and billionaires win agenda,” said Sen. Jeff Merkley of Oregon. “But Democrats stand ready to fully scrutinize any changes and ensure the Byrd Rule is enforced.”

MacDonough, for her part, has blocked many Democratic priorities, including raising the federal minimum wage to $15 and parts of the party’s immigration reform efforts. She is a neutral rules referee, not a political player. If Republicans dislike the process, they can always eliminate the filibuster, a tactic which effectively requires a 60-vote supermajority to pass legislation. So far, they have not.

Nevertheless, the parliamentarian’s ruling could prove decisive. Senate Republicans had hoped to vote this weekend or sooner to give the House time to finalize changes and get the bill to Trump’s desk before his holiday deadline. That timeline now appears uncertain.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune attempted to downplay the chaos.

“These are speed bumps along the way; we anticipated those and so we have contingency plans,” Thune said. He also added that Republicans wouldn’t try to overrule MacDonough’s guidance.

Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky was less optimistic, suggesting the GOP would “probably” still hold a vote this weekend.

Behind the scenes, Republicans are trying to modify the provisions MacDonough struck down, though it remains unclear whether they can be tweaked or must be entirely removed. One GOP source told Axios that the party still hopes to “find a solution to achieve the desired results.”

If not, they’re stuck. And for Trump, it’s another prominent legislative obstacle—this time from an unelected rules referee standing between him and a desperately wanted victory.

Reprinted with permission from Daily Kos.

Musk Is Right, But He Too Is 'A Disgusting Abomination'

On Tuesday, after Elon Musk blasted out the screed below, a friend texted me: “I guess the worm has turned. Oh, wait, I guess that’s RFK.” Indeed. We don’t know exactly what set off this tweet and the series of whines that followed, but it may have been the ketamine talking.

Anyway, Musk happens to be right: The One Big Beautiful Bill Act — its actual name! — is indeed a disgusting abomination. But this is one of those cases where it takes one to know one. Few men have done as much damage out of sheer arrogance, ignorance and pettiness as Elon Musk. He has thousands, maybe hundreds of thousands, of deaths on his hands.

And even his parting blast is destructive, demonstrating that he has learned nothing from his abject failure as a policymaker. The OBBBA is terrible, but not at all for the reasons Musk claims.

There have been a number of articles about Musk’s departure that portray him as a “Mr. Smith goes to Washington” type, a well-intentioned naif thwarted by special interests. Gag me with a Cybertruck.

What actually happened was that a zillionaire who knew nothing about government marched in claiming that he could cut $2 trillion from the $6 trillion federal budget by eliminating waste, fraud, and abuse. This was obvious nonsense, but Musk has never showed any signs of being willing either to admit his mistakes or learn from them. The wild claims just kept coming, like his insistence that millions of dead people were getting Social Security.

Claims about budget savings by DOGE — the Musk-run not-actually-a-government department that has been running wild since Donald Trump took office — have rapidly shrunk over time. Still, DOGE has continued to put out “walls of receipts” purporting to document some of its achievements. Again and again, investigators going through these reports have found them full of ludicrous errors — the same canceled contract listed three times, an $8 million saving reported as $8 billion, and more.

Seriously, would any of Musk’s tech-bro friends have invested in a venture run by someone with such a record of making extravagant but completely unfilled promises, then following up with false claims of success?

Meanwhile, the Muskenjugend, the extremely young and utterly unqualified acolytes DOGE parachuted into government agencies, disrupted the federal government’s operations. In some cases they summarily fired crucial workers without making any effort to understand their jobs, while encouraging many others to take early retirement. Those workers who remained have found themselves devoting a lot of time and effort to justifying their existence rather than doing their jobs. And although it’s hard to quantify, the DOGE presumption that government workers are worthless unless proven otherwise must have done large damage to morale and efficiency. In the end, DOGE has almost surely increased the budget deficit.

The one area where DOGE really has managed to make big cuts is foreign aid, a very small part of the budget but one it has virtually shut down. The savings have been tiny, but the human impacts immense — as I said, thousands have died as a result of Musk’s actions, and many more will die in the future.

Aside from the special hostility Musk and co. seem to have toward helping the world’s poor, the big driver behind Musk’s whole role in Washington seems to have been the belief that the federal government is a bloated bureaucracy that wastes vast amounts of money. Yet Musk kept not being able to find all that waste. This is despite the fact that he had months to dig up the wasted billions, along with unprecedented, almost surely illegal, access to government data.

A better man might have said to himself, “Hmm. Maybe I was wrong. Maybe the federal government is actually a pretty well-functioning organization, with many workers trying to do their jobs well.”

But Musk isn’t that kind of man. In denouncing the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, he calls it a “pork-filled Congressional spending bill.” Hey, Elon, where’s the beef pork? You’ve spent months trying to find it, with basically zero success. And the reason this bill will explode the deficit is that savage cuts to Medicaid and food stamps aren’t enough to offset huge tax cuts for the rich.

Um, what cost savings? And what personal risks are we talking about?

In the end, Musk’s legacy will be a damaged federal government that has lost many of its best people and will have a hard time replacing them. Oh, and a lot of dead children.

In a just world Elon Musk wouldn’t be heading back to run Tesla. He would, instead, be retreating to a remote monastery somewhere, to spend the rest of his life in poverty and penance.

Reprinted with permission from Substack.

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Smart. Sharp. Funny. Fearless

If Voters Blame Republicans For Shutdown, Why Are They Angry At Democrats?

We Can See Trump's Economic Agenda Now -- And It Won't Work

Senate Parliamentarian Enrages GOP With Crushing Blow To Trump's Budget Bill

Musk Is Right, But He Too Is 'A Disgusting Abomination'

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