Tag: social security cuts
Billionaires Like Bezos Demanding Social Security And Medicare Cuts Are Not 'Moderate'

Billionaires Like Bezos Demanding Social Security And Medicare Cuts Are Not 'Moderate'

An extreme position does not become less extreme just because someone can put forward one that’s even more extreme. Massacring 100 children doesn’t become a moderate position just because someone is advocating killing 200 children.

This is how we should view the line being pushed by “moderate” voices that we have to deal with the $40 trillion debt with both spending cuts and tax hikes. The reality is that, apart from the military and Homeland Security, there is little fat in spending to be cut, as even Elon Musk inadvertently acknowledged. Insofar as we have a deficit problem, the issue is on the tax side, as can be easily shown. The rich have been taking an ever-larger share of national income over the last half-century, and they don’t feel like paying taxes on their winnings.

The major media outlets, which are all controlled by rich people, are pretending to be moderate by saying that we need to both raise taxes and cut spending. But there is nothing moderate about saying that we have to cut programs like Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid because Republicans have given big tax breaks to their campaign contributors.

Republicans pushed these tax cuts, knowing they would increase the deficit, but did not make any corresponding cuts in spending because the cuts would be incredibly unpopular. Now they are using their control over the media to insist that these cuts are now absolutely necessary to offset all the lost tax revenue from tax cuts put in place by Reagan, Bush II, and Trump.

The Jeff Bezos-owned Washington Post gave us a great example of this fake moderate position in its editorial, “To get the national debt under control, start with the retirement state.” The piece makes its case by taking the example of a two-earner couple, with average earnings of $100,000 a year. It shows that the couple, turning 65 in 2025, can expect lifetime Social Security benefits of $739k compared with tax contributions of just $597k. A couple with the same income retiring in 2045 can expect lifetime benefits of $987k compared to tax contributions of $735k.

After laying out this disparity for Social Security (it has a similar story for Medicare, which I’ll come to), it then makes an argument for reducing Social Security for high-income people. This is three-card Monte level deception.

If the idea is that we should reduce the benefits of high-income workers, honest people would look at the relative taxes and benefits for high-income workers. Social Security is explicitly designed to have a progressive payback structure, which means that relatively moderate-income workers, like the ones highlighted in the WaPo editorial, have higher paybacks relative to their taxes.

If the editors were interested in doing an apples- to-apples comparison, here’s what the picture would look like. (This is taken from the exact same source.)

As can be seen, high-income people pay considerably more in taxes than they get back in benefits. For a high-income woman retiring in 2025, the gap is $263,000. For a high-income man, the gap is $336,000. (The gap is larger for men than women because their life expectancy is shorter.) For a high-income woman retiring in 2045, the gap is $259,000. For a high-income man, the gap is $346,000.

If the point is to make an argument for reducing the benefits of high-income retirees, then show the taxes and benefits for high-income retirees. No one disputes that Social Security looks like a pretty good deal for more moderate-income retirees, but these people don’t typically have much income in retirement. I guess Jeff Bezos’ paper would have been too embarrassed to argue that we have to reduce the average monthly Social Security benefit of $2,071.

The Post’s editorial makes the push that while cutting Social Security, we should expect people to be more reliant on private 401(k)s. In addition to increasing risk, this is also enormously inefficient. Private 401(k)s cost more than 40 times as much to administer per dollar of benefits as Social Security. It is understandable that Mr. Bezos would be happy to see more money going to his rich friends in the financial industry, but most of us would rather see the money going to ordinary workers.

Medicare Benefits: Big Bucks to Hospitals and Drug Companies Are Not Benefits to Workers

The Post’s graphs do show a huge imbalance between the taxes paid out for Medicare and the cost of the benefits received. This is also deceptive.

In the United States, we pay almost twice as much per person for healthcare as the average for other wealthy countries. This is not because we get more or better healthcare. Our life expectancy ranks near the bottom for wealthy countries.

The big bucks for healthcare go to the income of drug companies, insurers, hospitals, medical equipment makers, and doctors. In each case, we pay two times as much, or more, than people in other wealthy countries. A paper that was not answerable to one of the richest people in the world would suggest bringing our payments in line with the rest of the world. But instead, the Post wants to beat up on the country’s retirees.

No one should be confused: Cutting Social Security and Medicare benefits to reduce the deficit is not a moderate position. It’s one that attacks hundreds of millions of ordinary workers to avoid taxing the rich or reducing waste in our health care system. That is extreme, but the rich media owners pushing this position will do everything they can to convince us they are being fair and balanced.

Dean Baker is a senior economist at the Center for Economic and Policy Research and the author of the 2016 book Rigged: How Globalization and the Rules of the Modern Economy Were Structured to Make the Rich Richer. Please consider subscribing to his Substack.

Trump's Gargantuan Pentagon Budget And The Social Security 'Shortfall'

Trump's Gargantuan Pentagon Budget And The Social Security 'Shortfall'

The release of the 2026 Social Security Trustees Report got the usual suspects (a.k.a. “very serious people”) genuflecting about the large projected shortfall. As of 2034, the program is projected to be unable to pay full benefits. This would mean a 22% cut in benefits if no additional revenue is added.

There are three points worth making here.

1) As an economic matter, the projected depletion of the trust fund and resulting shortfall in the program means nothing;

2) The main reason for the projected shortfall is the upward redistribution of income over the last half-century;

3) The projected shortfall is far less money than the increase in military spending that Donald Trump is requesting for his 2027 budget.

Trust Fund Accounting

On the first point, the spending to repay the bonds held from the trust fund in 2033 comes from the Treasury. Its impact on the economy would be the same as the spending in 2034, when the trust fund no longer holds any bonds.

There is an issue that the law gives the program a claim to the funds needed to repay the bonds it holds. Social Security does not have a claim to the money needed to pay full benefits once the last bonds are sold and the trust fund is depleted.

This is an important legal point, but from an economic standpoint, it is money from the Treasury in both cases. If the country could afford to pay full benefits in 2033 when the trust fund held bonds. It can afford to pay full benefits after it has sold all its bonds, however the law would need to be changed.

Upward Redistribution Hurt Social Security’s Finances

In 1982, the last time the program had a major overhaul, just ten percent of wage income went to high wage earners whose income escaped taxation by being over the cap (currently around $185,000) for wages subject to the 12.4 percent Social Security tax. In the last quarter century, close to 17 percent of wage income went over the cap.

This upward redistribution of wage income, coupled with the redistribution from wages to profits in the last quarter century, has substantially reduced the amount of revenue going into the trust fund. It shouldn’t be surprising that the people who engineered the upward redistribution of the last half-century, through trade policy, stronger patent and copyright protections, bank bailouts, and tech policy, now want to reduce people’s Social Security benefits.

Trump’s Increase in Military Spending is Twice the Size of the Shortfall Projected for 2034

The media seem to take pride in reporting huge budget numbers without providing any context that would make them meaningful to their audience. The projected Social Security shortfall is a great example. The usual group of budget hawks is being brought out to tell us that it is a huge program, which we can’t afford, and requires cuts.

Yet, we did not hear the same chorus in response to Donald Trump’s proposed increase in the military budget from $864 billion in the last year of the Biden presidency to $1,500 billion in 2027. Even adjusting for inflation between the two years, the increase would still be close to $590 billion. There was no rationale given for why the country suddenly needs to spend so much more on its military. Trump certainly did not propose this sort of massive increase in spending in his campaign.

The proposed increase in military spending dwarfs the shortfall projected in the Social Security program for 2034.

Adjusting for inflation (assuming 2.5 percent annually), Trump’s requested increase would be just under $700 billion in 2034 dollars. By contrast, the Social Security Trustees project that the program will face a $314 billion shortfall in its annual budget in 2034.

We can argue about what should be considered big and what should be considered small, but there is zero doubt that Trump’s proposed increase in military spending is hugely larger than the projected shortfall in Social Security. If anyone thinks that Social Security poses a big problem for the budget, they must believe that Trump’s military spending poses a much bigger problem, since it is more than twice as large.

And, as noted earlier, we are already paying the money for Social Security; it is just coming out of a different pocket. The proposed increase in military spending, at 1.6% of GDP, will be newly committed funds coming from the Treasury, which will impose substantial demands on the economy. Any honest person who says funding Social Security poses a serious budget problem must believe that Trump’s military spending poses a far bigger problem.

Danziger: His Moral Deficit

Danziger: His Moral Deficit

Jeff Danziger lives in New York City. He is represented by CWS Syndicate and the Washington Post Writers Group. He is the recipient of the Herblock Prize and the Thomas Nast (Landau) Prize. He served in the US Army in Vietnam and was awarded the Bronze Star and the Air Medal. He has published eleven books of cartoons and one novel. Visit him at DanzigerCartoons.com.

Shaft The Long-Term Unemployed And The GOP’s Other 2014 New Year’s Resolutions

Shaft The Long-Term Unemployed And The GOP’s Other 2014 New Year’s Resolutions

Right now, Republicans are thrilled with themselves.

In 2013, they prevented both gun safety and immigration reforms, while enjoying the adrenaline rush of holding the economy hostage and actually shutting down the government for 16 days.

And because HealthCare.gov got off to such a craptastic start, they’re currently poised to keep their House majority, which they were able to retain in 2012 even though their nominees received more than a million fewer votes than Democratic candidates.

So what’s this merry band of total bummers planning for 2014? More of the same.

Here are five New Year’s resolutions you can be sure the GOP will do its best to keep.

1. Cut 1.3 million people off unemployment insurance.
Congress has extended unemployment insurance benefits more than a half-dozen times since the 1950s, and it has never cut them off when the long-term unemployment rate was higher than 1.3 percent. It is currently 2.6 percent and Republicans in both chambers are refusing to extend the emergency benefits for the long-term unemployed that first went into effect ion when the Great Recession began, even though George W. Bush extended emergency benefits multiple times. Even in nearly every Republican-held swing district, a majority of the public wants these benefits extended. But the Republican mania to cut the deficit, even though it has been cut in half, continues.

For some Republicans — like Senator Rand Raul (R-KY) — cutting off those who can’t find work when there are two applicants for each open job is doing them a favor. But there’s no evidence that backs up that cruel claim.

2. Deny five million of the hardest-working Americans health insurance.
Medicaid expansion was designed to help those who work but earn too much to qualify for basic Medicaid. This encourages Americans to rise out of poverty and is the closest thing to a “public option” in Obamacare. Thanks to the Supreme Court, states can opt out of the program — even though the government covers 100 percent of the costs at first and 90 percent in perpetuity — at any time. And 25 Republican-led states have done just that, leaving nearly five million in a “coverage gap” where they cannot afford any coverage.

They’re doing this knowing they’re denying billions of dollars that would grow their states’ economies, driving up the cost of insurance in their marketplaces and endangering the lives of 27,000 residents in the process.

3. Try to cancel millions of Americans’ health insurance.
Republicans are just as committed to the repeal of the Affordable Care Act now as they were before their failed attempt to defund it by forcing a government shutdown. Any GOP candidate who suggests that we should simply fix the health care law instead of completely ripping its existence from the fabric of history is forced to retract the statement and repent. The problem for Republicans now is that repeal is no longer theoretical. Repeal now means canceling the coverage of the three million young adults on their parents’ plans, the more than three million people who have signed up for Medicaid or the State Children’s Health Insurance Program and the at least one million people who have selected paid private plans through the health care exchanges.
Savvy Republicans who recognize this may not be the smartest move could simply try to repeal the individual mandate, the least popular part of the law. Then they’ll be arguing to raise the rates of millions of Americans by as much as 27 percent. while leaving millions more uninsured.

4. Continue to demand cuts to Social Security and Medicare benefits without asking the rich or corporations to give up any tax breaks.
There’s a simple way to solve the Social Security “crisis.” First, admit that there isn’t a crisis. The program is fully funded for decades (and would be funded even longer if we passed immigration reform). Then either raise the cap on the payroll tax or tax millionaires slightly more to keep America’s greatest poverty-reducing program funded forever.

Medicare is a bit more complex.

President Obama has proposed reforms to the program, which would instantly be more viable with simple progressive fixes like negotiating for drugs the way the Veterans Administration does for its health care plan. But making cuts to Medicare benefits right now would be reckless given that the reforms to the program in the Affordable Care Act have shrunk the growth of costs over the past year to zero percent — yes, zero. If this trend continues, we’ll have essentially eliminated our entire long-term debt problem. Still, many Republicans demand cuts to benefits, asking America’s seniors to pay more while refusing to give up the massive tax breaks we give to millionaire investors, owners of second homes and corporations that offshore jobs.

The budget deal forged at the end of the year will likely delay any cuts for two years. But you can be sure that Republican candidates for Congress will campaign for “entitlement cuts” in 2014. And instead of asking the richest to pay more, most will be touting “tax reform” that will ask them to pay even less.

5. Show up for work even less often than they did in 2013.
The House of Representatives was only in session for 126 days in 2013, leading to the least productive American Congress in recorded history. How will the Republican leadership top itself in 2014? By working even less.

Just 113 days of work await members of the House in 2014, a reduction of about 9 percent, which is coincidentally nearly identical to Congress’ approval rating.

Photo: Gage Skidmore via Flickr

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