Tag: state of the union address
So Much Time, So Little Truth: Trump's Longest-Ever, Utterly Hollow Speech

So Much Time, So Little Truth: Trump's Longest-Ever, Utterly Hollow Speech

Well, that was exhausting — or would have been, if I had watched it. But I am not a masochist. I waited to read the transcript.

Trump’s State of the Union was historic in at least one respect: It was the longest SOTU ever. Was the plan to turn public opinion around by boring America into submission?

The address may also have been historic in another way, although it would be hard to quantify. Did any previous SOTU contain so many lies?

For the most part they weren’t Big Lies, lies that are persuasive because people can’t believe that anyone “could have the impudence to distort the truth so infamously”. They were, instead, small lies that added up to a false — and completely unpersuasive — portrayal of where we are.

On economics, Trump has catastrophic ratings even though the economy isn’t a catastrophe. Things aren’t great, but by most metrics they are about the same or a little bit worse than they were when he took office:

The last measure, the labor market differential, is the spread between people saying that jobs are “plentiful” versus “hard to get,” which has deteriorated substantially.

Why are people so negative when the economy isn’t that bad by conventional measures? Affordability, especially with regard to housing and health care, is a real problem, not fully captured by standard measures. And it’s a problem Trump didn’t address at all — instead, he’s doubling down on his massively unpopular tariffs, which make the problem worse.

Also, there are two big disconnects. First is the gap between what Trump promised — he was going to bring grocery prices down, cut energy prices in half — and what he has actually delivered. Second is the gap between his wild boasts about how great things are and the reality of a K-shaped economy that is leaving many Americans behind.

One other lie that struck me, although it may not matter much to voters, was Trump’s insistence that the world admires what he’s doing: “America is respected again, perhaps like never before.”

Trump’s desire for external validation is, frankly, pathetic. And the truth is that we are despised like never before. You can see this in surveys:

Source: Pew Survey

And foreign leaders have completely lost faith in America: We’ve become a country whose word can’t be trusted, a country that betrays its allies:

Source: Kiel Institute

It’s true that in some ways the world fears us in a way it didn’t before — in the same way that one steps carefully around a belligerent drunk in a bar. But we haven’t been this weak on the world stage since before World War II.

Anyway, that speech won’t pull Trump out of his downward spiral. Time to attack Iran?

Paul Krugman is a Nobel Prize-winning economist and former professor at MIT and Princeton who now teaches at the City University of New York's Graduate Center. From 2000 to 2024, he wrote a column for The New York Times. Please consider subscribing to his Substack.

Reprinted with permission from Paul Krugman.


Gaslight: Was This Trump's Most Unhinged State Of The Union Ever?

Gaslight: Was This Trump's Most Unhinged State Of The Union Ever?

President Donald Trump delivered an unhinged, lie-filled, racist, and disturbingly dark State of the Union address Tuesday where he gaslit Americans about his accomplishments yet ultimately did nothing to change his abysmal standing in approval polls.

In fact, he spent just a few minutes talking about the economy—the most important issue to voters as midterm elections approach—and instead spent the rest of the never-ending speech talking about murders and blood and other depressing things that likely had average viewers wondering what on earth he was blathering about.

Worse for Trump and Republicans is that when he did talk about the economy, he only boasted about how great it’s doing, saying it is “roaring like never before.” Yet he did not offer any plans for how he would bring costs down and help Americans afford their rising cost of living, which is what Americans want to hear.

For example, he boasted that "100 percent of the jobs created under my administration have been in the private sector." Yeah, all 181,000 of them—the lowest annual job creation number in decades?

He crowed that the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit 50,000 under his tenure, even though the market is now 800 points below that. And the stock market in the United States is actually faring worse than other countries’ markets.

Americans don’t believe Trump’s economy is great, no matter how many times he declares it to be true. In fact, CBS News released a poll before the speech that found 60 percent of Americans say that Trump makes things seem “better than they really are.”

Aside from rambling like a buffoon and being a raging asshole—reminding a national audience why they dislike him so much—Trump bragged about other head-scratching things that are unlikely to help boost his popularity.

He gloated about having “lifted 2.4 million Americans—a record—off of food stamps." Again, that’s not because he helped people but because he cut the program and stripped food aid from millions.

He waxed poetic about his illegal and destructive tariffs, saying they are “saving our country.” Of course, the tariffs are hurting the economy and Americans hate them, so highlighting this policy is again idiotic.

And he even spoke about how he is working to fix health care—one of his worst policy issues—even though he has absolutely no plan, slashed Medicaid, and let Affordable Care Act tax credits expire, raising insurance premiums for millions of Americans.

In fact, Trump slammed Democrats for not voting for the “One Big Beautiful Bill”—which slashed health care for the poorest Americans in order to pay for tax cuts for the rich. Rather than cower, Democrats stood and clapped, proud of themselves for not voting for that unpopular legislation.

Trump’s speech coincided with his approval rating hitting second-term lows—rivaled only by the dismal approval ratings he notched after he incited a violent and deadly insurrection at the U.S. Capitol on January 6, 2021.

A spate of polls released before Trump’s address found a host of bad news for Trump, including that his approval with independents is at just 26 percent, that Americans disapprove of his performance on every major issue, and that his approval has fallen even among Republicans who he needs to turn out for midterm elections in November.

The nonsense he spewed in Tuesday’s speech—the longest on record—is unlikely to change that.

While we all just suffered through that absolute buffoonery, here’s a final reminder: This utterly embarrassing display won’t matter when it comes to the November midterms. Feelings about Trump are baked in, and nothing he said in that speech will change the minds of Americans.

Reprinted with permission from Daily Kos


No Justification: Trump Won't Explain His Feckless And Bellicose Iran Policy

No Justification: Trump Won't Explain His Feckless And Bellicose Iran Policy

Donald Trump’s interminably verbose State of the Union address delivered all the typical Trumpian tropes in an extended version, from his mendacious slurs against immigrants to his cosplay as super-patriotic commander in chief. He even riffed on his yearning to give himself a Congressional Medal of Honor, an award normally unavailable to draft-dodgers.

What the president did not do, even as a ballooning U.S. air and naval force surrounds Iran, was to justify such ostentatious preparations for war against an adversary he claimed to have disarmed only months ago. It is all well and good to hang medals on courageous service members; it is imperative to tell the American people – especially those in uniform and their loved ones – why they must again go in harm’s way.

Dwelling at length on stories of valor and pathos, Trump uttered only a few sentences about the military buildup that indicates preparation for an extended and bloody conflict. Unlike Venezuela or any of the other adversaries that his administration has targeted, the Islamic Republic maintains a formidable arsenal of weapons and nearly a million men under arms. Any attempt to overthrow that regime beyond the bombing campaigns already undertaken is liable to inflict mass casualties on our troops -- and even more damage on our reputation abroad.

Trump might at least have mentioned why he believes those risks are worthwhile. The rationale he offered last night made little sense. He claimed again to have “obliterated” the Iranian nuclear weapons program during last year’s bombing campaign – an assertion rejected by the International Atomic Energy Agency – which ought to mean that the regime is years away from making a bomb. He said that the Iranians have refused to foreswear any nuclear weapons ambitions, a falsehood contradicted eight hours before his address by Iran’s foreign minister, who posted on X that his country would "under no circumstances ever develop a nuclear weapon."

Trump also mentioned the Iranian regime’s killing of thousands of protesters, a horrible crime that he had vowed to prevent in one of his many hollow promises. While he is no doubt furious over that embarrassing dereliction, that would hardly vindicate a war killing thousands more innocent Iranians.

Led into a cul-de-sac by his own bellicose pronouncements, Trump finally is facing the consequences of the rash decision in his first term to abandon the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action negotiated by President Obama, which was backed by an international alliance that included France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Russia, and China. Personal animosity toward Obama was his only real reason for wrecking that painstakingly negotiated agreement. Among the many valuable aspects of that deal was its safeguards against Iran enriching uranium to weapons grade before 2030 – precisely the issue that has stalled the current negotiations. (It doesn’t help that Trump again dispatched Steve Witkoff, his befuddled real estate pal and crypto investment partner, to deal with the Iranians in this hour of crisis.)

If we brush aside all the flag-waving and jaw-thrusting in his State of the Union, it should be clear that Trump now faces a pair of bad choices – one worse for him, perhaps, and the other far worse for his country and the world. If he backs away from war without any major concessions from the Iranians, then “Trump Always Chickens Out” will echo louder than ever. If he plunges us into a forever war he always pledged to avoid, the costs could be incalculable and even catatrosphic.

Let us hope that the clueless Witkoff – or maybe Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who is smarter -- can somehow retrieve a deal from the ruins of the JCPOA before it is too late. But remember that we have only reached this perilous moment because of Trump’s dishonesty and egomania.

Joe Biden

Biden Pulls Even With Trump In Latest National Polls

In the four weeks since his fiery State of the Union address, President Joe Biden's campaign has kicked into high gear—barnstorming eight battleground states, opening up more than 100 field offices, making a $30 million ad buy, and launching a Latino outreach strategy targeting the Southwestern swing states of Arizona and Nevada.

Some polls have begun to see movement in Biden's direction, including a recent Bloomberg battleground poll, the Marquette University polling released Thursday, and the NPR/PBS/Marist poll (compared to its January/February survey).

Since last fall, the standard line in national political reporting has been that Trump leads Biden in the polling. That construct doesn't hold true any longer. Eyeballing the last two weeks of polls released by nonpartisan outfits (excluding Trafalgar Group) on 538's aggregate, Biden won six of them, Trump won five, and one found them even.

Data analysts far smarter than me also see positive movement for Biden.

The 538 generic ballot continues to be better for Democrats relative to results earlier this year. At 44.6% to 44.4%, Democrats are now up by a whisper over Republicans, who consistently led in the generic this year until roughly a month ago when Democrats pulled even.

It's impossible to intuit exactly what goes into subtle shifts among the electorate, but Trump hasn't exactly been killing it on the campaign trail. His campaigning over the past month has mainly consisted of making courtroom appearances, golfing, some fundraising, and 'Truthing' his endless grievances.

The presumptive GOP candidate did manage to cause a stir this week in the battleground state of Michigan, where he lied about speaking with Ruby Garcia’s family. The Michigan woman was murdered by a man who was in the country illegally. Trump never spoke to her loved ones.

“He did not speak with any of us, so it was kind of shocking seeing that he had said that he had spoke with us, and misinforming people on live TV,” Mavi Garcia, who has acted as a spokeswoman for her family, said in an interview with WOOD-TV8, the NBC affiliate for West Michigan.

Other local media outlets carried similar stories refuting Trump's false claim.

From a campaign standpoint, it wasn't exactly a home run, even though the virulently anti-immigrant aspect of the stop surely thrilled his MAGA faithful.

Reprinted with permission from Daily Kos.

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