Tag: thom tillis
As Trump Losses Accelerate, Are Republicans Finally Backing Away From Him?

As Trump Losses Accelerate, Are Republicans Finally Backing Away From Him?

In a brief respite from the usual econonic analysis on this page, let us count the recent losses for our benighted president:

—With a 215-208 vote, the House passed a measure instructing the president to either withdraw U.S. forces from Iran forthwith or win Congressional approval to continue the conflict.

—Enough Republicans came out publicly against his $1.8 billion slush fund for January 6 rioters that the measure appears to be dead.

—His ballroom funding appears to be in trouble.

—His preferred candidate in Iowa’s Republican primary lost.

—He’s got to take his name off of the Kennedy Center.1

—Senate Republicans appear to be balking at his nominating “little Trump”—Bill Pulte—to be his Director of National Intelligence as the man has zero experience in such intelligence. Or any other kind of intelligence. His sole qualification is that he’s been Trump’s bulldog; this is the guy that cooked up the attack strategy on former Fed chair Jerome Powell, which, for the record, totally backfired on the administration.

I’m sure this is a partial list—it’s just off the top of my head (and I didn’t even mention all the artists who dropped out of his July 4th concert). Head over to the Contrarian for a much deeper dive. What I’d like to do here is noodle a bit on what it all means.

First, let’s recognize that something has changed. I just noted that Senate Republicans are balking at a terrible nominee. But they’ve confirmed dozens of terrible nominees. Has Trump become some kind of lame duck? Has the Republican party found its spine?!

No, on the spine thing. Part of what we’re seeing is truly pathetic opposition to some of Trump’s agenda from Republicans who lost their primaries due to Trump’s endorsement of their opponent. I give zero spine points for standing up to Trump’s grift, lawlessness, and incompetence only now that it is costless to you.

But there’s perhaps something to the lame-duck condition. The root of Republicans’ fealty to Trump is their belief that he can primary them, and that still clearly holds in more than a few districts (his Iowa endorsement loss is an exception). But revealed behavior being what it is, a few Republicans—and to be clear, there are just a few of them—calculate that they’ve got more to lose by aligning with Trump on everything than by showing some independence. Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) put it this way: “I feel like there are people advising the president as if there is no election in November.”

Trump has said he doesn’t care about the midterms, but he’s never seen a vote he didn’t want to rig, and his gerrymanders and proposed voting-rule changes suggest he cares plenty about that outcome. For what it’s worth, which is probably not much at this point, Polymarket has the Democrats at 82 percent to win the House and 47 percent to win the Senate.

Let’s say those odds hold, what can we learn about this recent spate of Trump losses and defections that’s relevant to the back half of his second term wherein Democrats control the House? I’m already too far out of my political economy lane, but I’ll briefly offer the following.

I’d argue that when you add a Democrat-controlled House to these dynamics, and likely even a narrower Republican lead in the Senate, to the at least meager evidence of Republicans recognizing that maybe this Trump guy isn’t great for them and their party’s future, you get an even more insulated Trump for the rest of his term.

Outside of extending his first-term tax cuts, he never had any use for Congress in the first place and views them as a largely irrelevant buzzing in his ears as he and his cabinet pursue their unitary goals whims. That wouldn’t necessarily be a political problem for Trump if his whims weren’t so economically destructive. Yes, he’ll always have the always-Trumpers and never have the never-Trumpers, but the decisive group in the middle that determines election outcomes has realized that, when it comes to their living standards, they bet on the wrong pony. And Republican politicians can only ignore that reality for so long.

So, under the scenario I’m describing, Congress gets nothing done while the Democrat-controlled House holds endless hearings prosecuting the misdeeds of the admin. That won’t be pretty, but I’ve long argued that if we want to begin tacking back towards good governance, Trump’s enablers must be relentlessly prosecuted.

Trump himself doubles down on his personal grift, focusing even more on kickbacks and crypto, and becomes increasingly irrelevant. With greater Democratic control and less unchecked power, he is less able to disrupt on the scale of his first two years in office.

I admit this may be wishful thinking and it is too soon to tell if I’m correct that some Rs are recognizing they need some distance from Trump—as the New York Times put it: “The president’s unilateral and retributive style of governing is starting to hit a wall in both chambers of Congress.” And, especially with SCOTUS mostly behind him, there’s no telling what greater damage he can do. We must especially worry about his attack on the electoral infrastructure.

But it is also important not to let one’s doomerism preclude one from seeing these cracks. A bad day for Trump is a good day for America and the rest of the world. A bad week, quarter, year or two are even better.

Jared Bernstein is a former chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers under President Joe Biden. He is a senior fellow at the Council on Budget and Policy Priorities. Please consider subscribing to his Substack, from which this is reprinted with permission.


With Slush Fund, Trump And Blanche Conjured A Metastasizing Scandal

With Slush Fund, Trump And Blanche Conjured A Metastasizing Scandal

Editor’s Note: This is the second part of a two-part essay on the Trump administration’s $1.776 billion “Anti-Weaponization Fund”—the administration’s most grave dereliction of duty since the January 6th pardons themselves. Part One catalogued the multiple layers of legal violation: the collusive non-lawsuit, Judge Williams’s declaration that no settlement exists, the Judgment Fund statutes and DOJ regulations trampled, and the administration’s cynical bet that the corrupt architecture is legally unreachable. This part details the most recent developments in what has now become a full-blown scandal, analyzes the gravest injury of all—the one done directly to the American people—and ends by discussing possible lines of resistance to the whole racket.

Trump and Blanche are betting they can get away with the IRS settlement and its $1.8 billion fund, but they already are facing a rip current of resistance.

The bet is that the heist is politically outrageous but legally stitched up: file an unconstitutional lawsuit, then voluntarily withdraw it before the judge could rule; bury a billion-dollar fund in the fine print of a phony settlement; count on a compliant Republican majority to swallow the violations of congressional appropriations law without a word. One or two news cycles, then move on.

But it’s not working out that way so far.

The scandal is metastasizing.

The days since Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche announced and defended the agreement have been brutal—for Blanche in particular.

Trump has left Blanche to take the heat, claiming on Monday that he knows “very little about it” and “wasn’t involved in the creation of it.” This from the man who said he was “supposed to work out a settlement with myself” and instructed the Treasury Secretary to “tell ‘em to pay me.” The president who openly boasted about controlling both sides of his own lawsuit suddenly has no idea how the resulting $1.776 billion fund came to exist.

It falls to Blanche to defend this toxic waste dump, and he has jumped to the task with his characteristic eagerness to please the man who controls his future at DOJ. Blanche has repeatedly suggested that the arrangement is not unprecedented and that Trump “isn’t taking a dime.” Both arguments have been blown out of the water.

The New York Times reported Wednesday that career lawyers at the IRS last month prepared a 25-page memorandum laying out multiple defenses to Trump’s lawsuit and recommending the Justice Department move to dismiss it, as it had done in other similar cases. It identified two likely winning arguments, including one that DOJ successfully advanced in another case with the same facts.

That puts the lie directly to Blanche’s suggestion that the “settlement” here is basically business as usual—unless he means business as usual for Trump, who, of course, calls the shots. Instead of the vigorous defense the case demanded, DOJ rolled over in a lawsuit its own client agency had told it was meritless and should be dismissed.

The day after the settlement was announced, DOJ quietly expanded the agreement with a further sweetener: the IRS will forgo any audits of Trump, his family, and related entities. IRS procedures require an annual audit of the president’s tax returns. A 2020 New York Times investigation found that a loss in one pending audit could cost Trump more than $100 million. That $100 million is a personal benefit to Trump, funded directly by taxpayers, on top of the more than $20 each of the 84.2 million American families are already absorbing to pay for the $1.8 billion fund.

That makes Blanche’s assurance to the Senate that “President Trump isn’t taking a dime” comically misleading. Trump and his family have effectively been handed a blank check on tax evasion and tax fraud—written by all of us. Recall that when we finally got a glimpse of Trump’s taxes, they revealed a shocking pattern of dubious deductions and past losses. This add-on guarantees that scrutiny of exactly that kind of conduct is now permanently off the table.

As I wrote in Part One, this scandal has layers, and each one is more rotten than the one beneath. The multiple legal violations have been well-catalogued. The fundamental illegal core is that the purported settlement was of a collusive lawsuit that couldn’t be brought in federal courts and couldn’t lawfully be the basis of an expenditure from the congressional Judgment Fund. But cataloguing the legal violations risks becoming a fog that obscures something simpler and more fundamental.

Imagine Trump had brought, and voluntarily dismissed, the sham lawsuit, and rigged a bogus settlement for $5,000. It would have been obnoxious. It would have been legally defective in every way described in Part One. But it would not have been the most serious political scandal of Trump 2.0. The scale and the identity of the beneficiaries are what elevate it to one.

That is because the deepest offense here is not the legal violations—grave as they are—but the unconscionable affront to the American people. That affront operates on two distinct levels.

The first is financial. Trump “settled” a case worth nothing at all—a case the judge declared left no settlement of record, that could not be heard in the federal courts, and that his own agency’s lawyers said should be dismissed. Moreover, Trump’s underlying claims, even if they could be brought, were worth at most a few thousand dollars under the governing statute, which caps damages at $1,000 per unauthorized disclosure. In return, the public pays as much as $2 billion or more for the dismissal of a worthless lawsuit. That dwarfs the payouts in the Teapot Dome scandal—where, moreover, the government at least got some oil in return. The art of the deal, indeed.

The second offense is moral and civic. The American people are being compelled to fund—and by funding to implicitly endorse—a bounty for the people who stormed the Capitol, beat police officers, and tried to stop the peaceful transfer of power. All of us are, in effect, being conscripted into Trump’s campaign to rewrite the history of January 6th. The message the fund sends—that the rioters were victims, that their convictions were injustices, that the government owes them not accountability but a check—is sent in all of our names, with all of our money. We are being made, without our consent, co-signatories to the biggest lie of Trump’s presidency.

Outgoing Republican Sen. Thom Tillis put the case in exactly those terms: “I think it’s stupid on stilts,” Tillis said. “When you take money from me to give to a purpose that I vehemently disagree with, that’s tyranny.”

At the Senate hearing, Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-OR) asked Blanche directly: “Do you feel they should get compensation after being convicted of violent acts against police officers?” Blanche’s demurral—“My feelings don’t, don’t matter, Senator”—was as revealing as any direct admission.

The notorious offenders who will soon be lining up for their millions have confirmed the worst expectations about the fund’s intended uses. A lawyer representing January 6th defendants declared that “everybody’s very excited about it.” Tommy Tatum, charged with civil disorder for interfering with police, hailed the fund as historic: “This is the UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE acknowledging the possibility that Americans were targeted through political abuse of government power.” Pardoned rioters are already discussing how to spend their anticipated windfalls: new cars, new houses, money to scrub their names from Google. One pardoned rioter charged with child molestation allegedly promised to pay off his victim with the payout he was certain was coming.

Trump and Blanche are trying to divert focus from the prototypical beneficiaries by suggesting the fund is nonpartisan. At his Senate hearing, Blanche blithely asserted that the fund is for “anybody... It’s not limited to Republicans.” But a few surprising beneficiaries can’t alter the fundamental character of Trump’s largesse with the public’s money. And in any event, we won’t even know who gets the money. The identities of recipients and the amounts they receive are to remain confidential, known only to the attorney general. The claim of evenhandedness is unverifiable by design.

The beneficiaries will not consist solely of the 1,600 January 6th defendants. Many others who took up Trump’s corrupt fight will surely line up at the trough: the fake electors from seven states; Trump aides who paid legal fees responding to Jack Smith’s grand jury; Republican members of Congress whose phone records were seized; One America News, which settled defamation suits for promoting 2020 election lies and is “seriously considering” filing a claim; and MyPillow’s Mike Lindell, who claims $400 million in losses from “weaponization.”

How’s that for a parade of horribles? It’s like a remake of Night of the Living Dead.

Trump and Blanche designed this to be legally unreachable. Taxpayers generally cannot sue to contest specific government expenditures. Members of Congress face enormous standing hurdles. Judge Williams’s courthouse door is closed. Even if enough Republicans join Democrats for a counteracting law, Trump will veto it. The architecture is built to be beyond the reach of the law.

I will be writing more about these obstacles, and whether and how they might be overcome. The take-home point is that the pushback must be immediate, impassioned, and countrywide.

The scheme already has generated the biggest Republican pushback of Trump 2.0. Capitol Hill Democrats are up in arms, which Trump probably expected, but Republicans are adding their dissent to Tillis’s tart comment. Just yesterday, Republicans abandoned plans to take up an immigration bill out of reported deep concerns about the $1.8 billion fund, a development the New York Times called “stunning.”

More ominously for Trump, Senate Majority Leader Thune told reporters that “there are and will continue to be a lot of questions that the administration is going to have to answer.” Senator Mitch McConnell lamented, “So the nation’s top law enforcement official is asking for a slush fund to pay people who assault cops? Utterly stupid, morally wrong—take your pick.” Pennsylvania Congressman Brian Fitzpatrick went further, telling reporters he “100%” wants to prevent the fund. He has sent a letter to DOJ demanding answers and is already drafting legislative text to stop it. Look for him to have company in his party before too long.

The task now is to keep these fires burning. All of us need to keep the issue front and center through the midterms and beyond, when, if the Democrats take the House, it will be time to consider impeachment.

We have to make the case, in every forum, including the office and the kitchen table, that this grotesque scheme is a bridge too far. Every Blanche appearance should include a demand to make public the identities of the fund’s beneficiaries. Every Republican member of Congress should be asked at every town hall whether they support giving taxpayer dollars to the people who beat police officers on January 6th. The Democrats should bring up any procedural device to force Republicans to state their position about the fund on the record. And every Republican who voices support should be made to answer for it on the ballot in November 2026.

Trump’s presidencies have been defined by self-dealing, but never as raw and consummate as here—a barely disguised, immense enrichment of himself and his allies that would make Putin and Orbán proud. He has pushed democracy to the precipice.

Harry Litman is a former United States Attorney and the executive producer and host of the Talking Feds podcast. He has taught law at UCLA, Berkeley, and Georgetown and served as a deputy assistant attorney general in the Clinton Administration. Please consider subscribing to Talking Feds on Substack.

Reprinted with permission from Talking Feds.

MAGA Push For Voter Suppression Splits Angry Senate Republicans

MAGA Push For Voter Suppression Splits Angry Senate Republicans

Senate Majority Leader John Thune has been forced into a "political pressure cooker" by MAGA members of the GOP, per a new report from Politico, as they push for him to go around the filibuster to pass an unpopular election reform bill demanded by Donald Trump.

According to the Wednesday morning report, Thune "is at the center of a relentless pile-on from prominent figures in the GOP’s MAGA wing" to pass the SAVE America Act, a bill that, among other things, would require voters to provide identification proving their citizenship at polling locations, an idea driven by Trump's debunked claims about widespread voter fraud committed by undocumented immigrants. Trump is so insistent on the passage of the bill that he has pledged not to sign any others until it is passed and sent to his desk.

MAGA Republicans such as Sen. Mike Lee (R-UT) are pushing for Thune to invoke a "talking filibuster" to get around the typical "legislative filibuster" rules, which would require 60 votes for the SAVE Act to proceed, an impossibility given Democratic opposition. Under a talking filibuster, only a simple majority of 51 votes would be needed, and Democrats would have to physically hold the Senate floor and speak for hours to keep it from proceeding.

Thune has dug in his heels in opposition to this idea, arguing that there is not actually enough support for it. He has also previously stated that the plan could have more complicated consequences than its proponents realize, and could result in Democrats eating up valuable Senate time with talking.

“It just kind of comes with the territory,” Thune said in an interview on Tuesday. “You just roll with it, you know. It’s the times in which we live.”

Other non-MAGA-aligned Republicans have also begun to speak out against their colleagues' calls for a talking filibuster, including Sen. Thom Tillis, a prominent Trump critic who is set to retire soon.

“Spare me the insights,” Tillis said. “They’re worse than Democrats because they’re so-called Republicans that are trying to undermine Republicans.”The pressure campaign against Thune reached a "crescendo" this week, according to Politico, with Tesla CEO and one-time Trump ally Elon Musk joining the calls for him to be removed as majority leader. For his part, Thune does not appear to be bothered.

He added that lawmakers calling for a talking filibuster “have no earthly idea how unlikely it is we’ll be successful at the end of the day. And yet they want to pressure me into exposing some of our candidates to votes that make no sense, that are not going to succeed.”

Other GOP senators spoke to Politico anonymously about their frustrations, with one calling the antics of their MAGA colleagues "bulls——," and another saying that, "A lot of us are done."

Reprinted with permission from Alternet


Thom Tillis

'Wipeout': Republicans Terrified 2026 Blue Wave Will Flip Senate And House

Republicans are increasingly anxious about the 2026 midterm elections, fearing a potential “wipeout” that could cost them their House majority and several Senate seats.

The Hill reported Monday that off-year elections in Virginia, New Jersey, and municipal races around the country indicate they might be in trouble.

Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC), who is not running for reelection, told the outlet, “If we are where we are today in the beginning of the second quarter [of 2026], then I think we’re in for a really rough time in November.”

“We have plenty of time to address it. There are a lot of positive things that we’re doing here, that the administration is doing. But if you mess with health care … if we don’t get health care policy right, if we don’t get some of the cost policies right, we’re going to have major headwinds next year,” he added.

The Hill reported that the biggest concern is the coattails of President Donald Trump, which have never been especially strong. Republicans lost power in their first midterm election after Trump’s 2016 win, when Democrats flipped the House in 2018. It was already a concern in January 2016, when former Rep. Justin Amash (R-MI) told Reuters he did not think Trump could help carry down-ballot candidates later that year.

Trump’s approval rating currently stands at 41.9 percent in a recent polling average compiled by Decision Desk HQ. On the generic congressional ballot — that is, whether voters say they would support a Democratic or Republican candidate — Democrats lead with 46.8 percent to 41.4 percent, according to DDHQ’s average.

One Republican on a conference call with the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) said election fears have spread among many senators up for reelection in 2026.

“The numbers are terrible,” said the unnamed lawmaker. “Not necessarily for any individual incumbent senator, although some of them aren’t very good. But you saw what happened a couple of weeks ago. Republicans didn’t win anything anywhere.”Democrats won the governor’s races in both Virginia and New Jersey. In Virginia, Trump did not participate, but in New Jersey, the president offered a full endorsement and support to the GOP nominee.

“There are a lot of warning signs blinking,” the lawmaker noted. “We’re increasingly on defense on the Senate side. … I think there’s a lot of concern.”

“Look at the 2018 midterm, we lost 41 seats in the House. The Speaker can only lose three this time,” a different GOP senator said.“I would expect to lose the House; I’m just trying to be objective,” the senator confessed.

Trump appeared to see the writing on the wall several months ago when he pressed Texas to pursue mid-decade redistricting to gerrymander congressional lines and eliminate solidly Democratic seats, a move that drew national criticism. California lawmakers, facing their own political pressures, moved ahead with a mid-decade redraw that targeted several Republican-held districts. A court has now thrown out the new Texas maps, ordering lawmakers back to the drawing board.

Other states, like Indiana, are resisting Trump’s demands to eliminate their remaining Democratic-held seats, even as they face pressure over redistricting. After years of litigation, a court ruled that Utah must draw a Democratic-leaning district centered on the Salt Lake City area, ensuring that Democrats have at least one realistic opportunity to win a seat there.

“The conventional wisdom was Democrats were screwed, and we were going to be in a hole of anywhere from 10 to 17 seats because of redistricting. That was back in the middle of July. Looking where we are now, that’s absolutely not the case,” said a Democratic strategist, according to The Hill.

Reprinted with permission from Alternet

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