Republicans are increasingly anxious about the 2026 midterm elections, fearing a potential “wipeout” that could cost them their House majority and several Senate seats.

The Hill reported Monday that off-year elections in Virginia, New Jersey, and municipal races around the country indicate they might be in trouble.

Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC), who is not running for reelection, told the outlet, “If we are where we are today in the beginning of the second quarter [of 2026], then I think we’re in for a really rough time in November.”

“We have plenty of time to address it. There are a lot of positive things that we’re doing here, that the administration is doing. But if you mess with health care … if we don’t get health care policy right, if we don’t get some of the cost policies right, we’re going to have major headwinds next year,” he added.

The Hill reported that the biggest concern is the coattails of President Donald Trump, which have never been especially strong. Republicans lost power in their first midterm election after Trump’s 2016 win, when Democrats flipped the House in 2018. It was already a concern in January 2016, when former Rep. Justin Amash (R-MI) told Reuters he did not think Trump could help carry down-ballot candidates later that year.

Trump’s approval rating currently stands at 41.9 percent in a recent polling average compiled by Decision Desk HQ. On the generic congressional ballot — that is, whether voters say they would support a Democratic or Republican candidate — Democrats lead with 46.8 percent to 41.4 percent, according to DDHQ’s average.

One Republican on a conference call with the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) said election fears have spread among many senators up for reelection in 2026.

“The numbers are terrible,” said the unnamed lawmaker. “Not necessarily for any individual incumbent senator, although some of them aren’t very good. But you saw what happened a couple of weeks ago. Republicans didn’t win anything anywhere.”Democrats won the governor’s races in both Virginia and New Jersey. In Virginia, Trump did not participate, but in New Jersey, the president offered a full endorsement and support to the GOP nominee.

“There are a lot of warning signs blinking,” the lawmaker noted. “We’re increasingly on defense on the Senate side. … I think there’s a lot of concern.”

“Look at the 2018 midterm, we lost 41 seats in the House. The Speaker can only lose three this time,” a different GOP senator said.“I would expect to lose the House; I’m just trying to be objective,” the senator confessed.

Trump appeared to see the writing on the wall several months ago when he pressed Texas to pursue mid-decade redistricting to gerrymander congressional lines and eliminate solidly Democratic seats, a move that drew national criticism. California lawmakers, facing their own political pressures, moved ahead with a mid-decade redraw that targeted several Republican-held districts. A court has now thrown out the new Texas maps, ordering lawmakers back to the drawing board.

Other states, like Indiana, are resisting Trump’s demands to eliminate their remaining Democratic-held seats, even as they face pressure over redistricting. After years of litigation, a court ruled that Utah must draw a Democratic-leaning district centered on the Salt Lake City area, ensuring that Democrats have at least one realistic opportunity to win a seat there.

“The conventional wisdom was Democrats were screwed, and we were going to be in a hole of anywhere from 10 to 17 seats because of redistricting. That was back in the middle of July. Looking where we are now, that’s absolutely not the case,” said a Democratic strategist, according to The Hill.

Reprinted with permission from Alternet