Ken Paxton
At the start of September, political analyst Nate Silver’s polling forecast had Texas’ Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico leading corrupt GOP candidate Ken Paxton by more than two points, 47.5 percent to 45.3 percent.
Today, Talarico’s lead has increased to nearly three points, 48.3 percent to 45.5 percent.
What’s amazing about that is Talarico’s numbers have gone up, while Paxton is mired in the same place he was six weeks ago—and all of that despite the right’s more than $134 million worth of anti-Talarico ads.
That’s a story in its own right, but it’s particularly noteworthy because a significant percentage of that spending has come from racist billionaire Elon Musk.
“Musk’s team reached out to Republicans in late August to discuss a train wreck they all saw coming: Unless the GOP poured more money into Texas immediately, the state’s Senate race could be lost in a matter of weeks,” Axios reported. “That chat set in motion a massive rescue operation for Republican Ken Paxton funded substantially by Musk, who gave $158 million to the GOP in September alone.”
That number accounted for 58 percent of all fundraising by the Senate Leadership Fund, which works to elect Republicans to the Senate.
Musk’s contributions in Texas allowed the GOP to keep spending in places like Kansas, South Carolina, and Nebraska as it hopes to stave off its worst-case scenario. But it also highlights just how ineffective TV ads are—especially when they’re mostly just attacks on transgender people.It’s been my thesis for several cycles that the late millions spent on top-of-ballot races where candidates have universal name ID is wasted money. Cycle after cycle, the numbers bear it out.
It did when Democrats dramatically outspent Republicans the last few cycles, and it appears to be bearing out this year as Republicans have the cash advantage.
Things might’ve looked different had Musk deployed those hundreds of millions earlier in the cycle, like in January, and used it to build voter outreach infrastructure. Or maybe it could’ve made a difference in the summer months, when Talarico had the airwaves all to himself.
Or maybe money isn’t the end-all of politics as many claim it to be. After all, the GOP wasted $134 million and Talarico’s numbers improved.
In 2024, Democrats vastly outspent Republicans before losing the election. The Democratic Party committees raised $2 billion, compared to Republicans’ $1.4 billion. Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris raised more than $1.15 billion, compared to President Donald Trump’s $463 million.And in Ohio that year, then-incumbent Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown raised nearly $94 million before losing to Republican Bernie Moreno, who only raised $26.7 million.
The same discrepancies played out in race after race.
Frankly, the role of money is overstated in elections. It certainly matters more in lower-ballot races, and you need a base amount to simply let voters know you exist. But beyond that, we have a system that runs on money that actually does very little to move the needle.
Democratic fundraising is down this year precisely because donors—both big dollar and smaller dollar—saw what Democrats raised in 2024 and decided it wasn’t worth pissing away all of that cash for a losing cause.
If the election results turn out as expected and Republicans lose bigly, expect them to face the same reckoning.And there would certainly be few things more satisfying on Election Night than seeing Musk realize that he set fire to hundreds of millions of his own money.
Markos Moulitsas is founder and editor of the blogging website Daily Kos and author of three books.
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- Paxton's Sweetheart Plea Deal With Pedophile Looms Over Texas Senate Race ›
- A Defeat For Musk: Media Matters Wins Ruling On 'Retaliatory' FTC Probe ›
- Talarico 'Mental Health' Smear Blows Up All Over MAGA, Musk And Grenell ›
- Elon Musk pours nearly $160M into Texas PAC boosting Ken Paxton's Senate bid ›
- Elon Musk gave $158 million to Senate GOP group helping Paxton ›
- Elon Musk Opens His Wallet for Ken Paxton, Billionaire Pours $158 Million Into Crucial Texas Senate Race - Benzinga ›
- Elon Musk Spends Heavily to Back Ken Paxton’s Senate Bid in Texas - The New York Times ›
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