James Talarico
As polls turn further toward Democrats ahead of November’s midterm elections, one might expect Republican pollsters to try to cut against that narrative and release some data to put a damper on all this blue-wave talk. But so far, they generally aren’t doing that.
A spate of new surveys from GOP-affiliated pollsters show Democrats well positioned across key Senate races.
In Texas’ Senate contest, two Republican polls show Democratic nominee James Talarico ahead of Republican nominee Ken Paxton. One from InsiderAdvantage shows Talarico up two points, while another, from SoCal Strategies, has him leading Paxton by five points.
One InsiderAdvantage poll even shows a close race in South Carolina’s Senate race: Democratic nominee Annie Andrews trails Republican Sen. Darline Graham by just two points. That is remarkable for a state that President Donald Trump won in 2024 by 18 points, and where no Democratic Senate nominee has lost by less than 9.6 points since the 1990s.
Notably, the only nonpartisan poll released since the start of July, from Abacus Data, showed Graham ahead of Andrews by 13 points.
Trafalgar Group, a GOP pollster infamous for its opaque methodology, finds the Democratic Senate candidates ahead in Michigan (D+2), North Carolina (D+6), and Georgia (D+7). All of those results are roughly in line with those from nonpartisan firms, despite Trafalgar having a track record of bias toward Republican candidates.
Iowa is also up for grabs, according to Cygnal’s new poll, which was sponsored by a right-wing group called Iowans for Tax Relief Foundation. The survey finds Democrat Josh Turek and Republican Ashley Hinson tied at 43 percent, though they don’t advertise that data in the sponsor’s press release. You have to look at the poll’s full PDF to find it.
The largest difference between nonpartisan and GOP pollsters comes in Kansas. A new poll from Emerson College shockingly found Democrat Adam Hamilton leading Republican Sen. Roger Marshall by 2 points, 45 percent to 43 percent. Meanwhile, GOP-aligned pollster co/efficient finds Marshall up five points over Hamilton. However, even if co/efficient’s result is borne out in November, it would represent a massive underperformance from Marshall. The Sunflower State hasn’t had a Democratic senator since 1932, and since 1980, Republican Senate candidates there have won by 33 points on average.
To take control of the Senate, Democrats need to pick up four seats on net. The best route runs through defending their competitive seats in Michigan, Georgia, and New Hampshire, then flipping four Republican-held seats, such as those in North Carolina, Ohio, Texas, or elsewhere.
If the November results exactly follow the recent polling from Republican firms, then Democrats would pick up three Senate seats on net this year—not enough to take the majority, yet a result that was hard to fathom roughly two years ago. (The Maine Senate race is tied in the one GOP-aligned poll released since July. If that seat flipped as well, it would give Democrats a majority.)
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