The average cost of diesel fuel set a new record on Friday, hitting a whopping $5.85 per gallon, according to AAA’s fuel tracker—a 30 percent increase from the same time last year.

The timing of the diesel spike could not be worse for the GOP, which is directly responsible for the price increase as the party did not stop Trump from launching an ill-advised war that he now cannot seem to get out of.

The midterm elections are less than two months away, with mail-in ballots hitting mailboxes as early as today in states across the country.

And a surge in diesel prices will almost certainly trickle down to higher prices in the rest of the economy. That’s because diesel powers the trucks, boats, and trains that transport goods across the country. Diesel is also used in farming machinery to harvest crops, meaning a spike in diesel prices will also likely impact grocery prices.

Given that the cost of living is the issue voters say will determine how they vote in the election, that leaves Republicans in a terrible spot.

“This impacts you, even if you don’t fill up with diesel,” Democrats on the House Ways and Means Committee wrote in a post on X of the new diesel price record. “Higher diesel prices > higher fuel costs for truckers > higher shipping costs for businesses > higher prices on store shelves > higher costs for you.”

Indeed, GOP operatives told Politico that they are resigned to the fact that prices will not come down in time to save them in the midterms, with handicappers saying Republicans are almost certain to lose their House majority—and their control of the Senate is in serious peril, too.

“In the spring, I was like, look, I think we need gas prices coming down starting in August, like in a significant way. I think voters need some time to kind of get over their frustrations, and I think we’ve run out of time,” an unnamed “Republican operative working on several races across the country” told Politico.

Compounding Republicans’ problems is that record-setting diesel prices hit their base hard, which could depress GOP turnout or even cause some Republican voters to defect to the Democrats. That would turn what was already expected to be a bad night for Republicans into a catastrophic one.

It’s why states like Iowa, Ohio, and even Kansas—which all have major agricultural sectors that are heavily impacted by spiking diesel prices—are on the map for possible Democratic Senate pickups, even though they backed Trump by double-digit margins in 2024.

Worse still for Republicans is that regular gasoline prices are also elevated, with the average price of a gallon of gas at $4.15. That’s a record high for Labor Day, when millions of Americans take car trips for holiday getaways.

That, too, will leave bad tastes in the mouths of voters, who are reminded of Trump’s role in raising their cost of living every time they drive past a gas station or fill up their tanks.

Reprinted with permission from Daily Kos