Karl Rove, a longtime Republican operative and fixer, issued a dire warning to Republicans about the failing campaign of Senate candidate Ken Paxton during a Fox News appearance on Tuesday.

Rove told the hosts of Fox’s America’s Newsroom that he believes that recent campaign finance filings from Paxton, which show his fundraising heavily trailing that of Democratic nominee James Talarico, will require presidential intervention to save the seat.

Rove also indicated that the seat should be considered a “toss-up,” despite the fact that Republicans won their 2020 and 2024 Senate elections there by at least eight percentage points.

"The state is Republican in nature, but this is an unusual race,” Rove said. “Talarico, I think, had over $70 million raised, and Paxton had $9 million-plus.”

Rove criticized Paxton for visiting “Iceland with his new girlfriend” the week before the Fourth of July holiday instead of campaigning for the seat.

“This is going to be one that is going to depend mightily upon the decision of President Trump to spend or not spend the half-a-billion-plus dollars that he has in his two super PACs, MAGA Inc. and Never Surrender. If he does spend, then he can sort of even it up. If he doesn’t spend, this could be a really bad night for Republicans in Texas,” Rove concluded.

Rove is best known for being the so-called architect of former President George W. Bush’s political career. While Bush ended up as one of the most unpopular presidents in recent history following the failure of the Iraq War and the onset of the Great Recession, Rove did successfully steer Bush’s career through two terms as governor of Texas.

The negative assessment from Rove piles on to the waves of bad headlines rocking the Paxton campaign.

A poll released last Thursday by Emerson College showed Paxton and Talarico effectively tied, 47 percent to 46 percent. On Tuesday the Talarico campaign announced that Jacob Smith, who previously served as Cornyn’s deputy legislative director, had joined Talarico as his deputy policy director.

In the seat’s Republican primary earlier this year, many Republican insiders had preferred that incumbent Sen. John Cornyn would win the nomination. But after Cornyn clashed with Trump, Trump backed Paxton in the primary, and despite years of scandal and controversy, Paxton won.

Republican control of the Senate is being threatened by internal party disarray. Trump continues to wield an outsized influence over the party while plummeting in support with voters outside of the MAGA bubble.

Trump picking Paxton over Cornyn turned what may have been an easy race into a nail-biter. If Rove is to be believed, Trump will have to do the work to clean up his own mess.

Reprinted with permission from Daily Kos