Smart. Sharp. Funny. Fearless.

Monday, December 09, 2019 {{ new Date().getDay() }}

Tag:

Midterm Roundup: Joni Ernst’s Flip-Flop-Flip

Here are some interesting stories on the midterm campaigns that you may have missed on Thursday, October 16:

• As other Republican candidates try to distance themselves as far as possible from their past support for fetal personhood bills, Iowa Senate candidate Joni Ernst is making the opposite play. On Wednesday, she told the Sioux City Journal editorial board that “I will continue to stand by” a pledge to support a personhood bill if she is elected to the Senate. As MSNBC’s Steve Benen points out, this amounts to a flip-flop-flip on the issue (although Benen suspects that Ernst may not fully understand the controversial policy). Ernst continues to lead Democrat Bruce Braley by 2 percent in the Real Clear Politics poll average.

• Colorado Senate candidate Cory Gardner is also struggling with his past support for personhood. Democratic incumbent Mark Udall’s campaign has been circulating this brutal clip from the candidates’ last debate, in which the moderator tells the Republican congressman that “a charitable interpretation would be that you have a difficult time admitting when you’re wrong, and a less charitable interpretation would be that you’re not telling us the truth.” Still, polls continue to show Gardner building on his narrow lead, and he now holds a 3 percent advantage in the poll average.

• Another poll suggests that Democrats have a real chance in Georgia’s tight gubernatorial and senatorial elections. The new survey from WRBL finds Republican governor Nathan Deal tied with Democratic challenger Jason Carter at 44 percent. In the Senate contest, Democrat Michelle Nunn leads Republican David Perdue 46 to 45 percent, within the poll’s margin of error. Deal and Perdue’s leads in the poll average are down to 2 percent and 1.2 percent, respectively, and a runoff appears increasingly likely in both races.

• Mayday PAC, the outside group that seeks to limit the influence of money in politics, released a new ad touting South Dakota Senate candidate Rick Weiland’s support for expanding Social Security. The ad is likely meant to contrast the Democrat with Independent candidate Larry Pressler, who is struggling with his past support for cutting Social Security benefits.

• And new polling suggests that Democrats may have an ace in the hole to save them in several tight races: raising the federal minimum wage.

Photo: Monica de Argentina via Flickr

Want more political news and analysis? Sign up for our daily email newsletter!

Midterm Roundup: Scott Walker Might Be In Trouble

Here are some interesting stories on the midterm campaigns that you may have missed on Wednesday, October 15:

• Having failed to oust Republican governor Scott Walker with an unapologetically progressive challenge in 2012, Wisconsin Democrats are trying a new tactic this year: moderation. There are signs that Democrat Mary Burke’s centrist challenge is gaining steam: She has drawn even with Walker in the latest Marquette University Law School poll, and Walker now leads by less than 1 percent in the Real Clear Politics poll average. But Walker still has one big advantage: His Republican base is a much safer bet to turn out in big numbers than Burke’s coalition.

• Due to the latest case of Ebola in Texas, President Barack Obama canceled his planned campaign rally in Connecticut with Governor Dannel Malloy. The Democratic incumbent could use all the help he can get in his re-election fight; he leads Republican Tom Foley by just 2 percent in the poll average.

• A new CNN/ORC poll of Colorado’s Senate race finds Republican Rep. Cory Gardner leading Democratic incumbent Mark Udall, 50 to 46 percent. The poll is the latest in a series to show Gardner in a good position, and he’s now up 2 percent in the poll average. Democrats maintain that Colorado polls have historically overestimated Republicans’ chances in Colorado, and that Udall’s support may be stronger than it presently appears.

• Two new polls find Republican Joni Ernst leading Democratic Rep. Bruce Braley in Iowa’s Senate race. Quinnipiac has Ernst up 47 to 45 percent, while USA Today/Suffolk University shows her up 47 to 43 percent. The surveys push Ernst’s narrow lead in the poll average up to 1.6 percent.

• And if you’re overwhelmed by all of the predictions from various election forecasters, this handy chart from The Upshot should help you keep them straight.

Photo: Gage Skidmore via Flickr

Want more political news and analysis? Sign up for our daily email newsletter!

Midterm Roundup: Shaheen Pulls Away

Here are some interesting stories on the midterm campaigns that you may have missed on Tuesday, September 30:

• Republican hopes that New Hampshire’s Senate seat could be in play appear to be on life support. According to a new American Research Group poll, Senator Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) leads Republican challenger Scott Brown by 10 percent. Shaheen is now up by 5.8 percent in the Real Clear Politics poll average, and has led in all but one public poll of the race.

• In another state where the GOP hoped to expand the Senate map, their candidate has literally disappeared from public view. Michigan Republican Terri Lynn Land has not made a public appearance since a fundraising event last Tuesday. She currently trails the Democratic nominee, Rep. Gary Peters, by 4.7 percent in the poll average.

• Iowa holds better news for the GOP. A Public Policy Polling poll released Tuesday shows Republican Joni Ernst leading Democratic Rep. Bruce Braley in the Hawkeye State’s Senate race, 45 to 43 percent. Ernst is ahead by 2.2 percent in the poll average. If Ernst can hold on for the win, it could be fatal to Democrats’ hopes of holding the Senate.

• In New York, Republican gubernatorial candidate Rob Astorino has released one of the strangest ads of the cycle in his longshot attempt to unseat Democratic incumbent Andrew Cuomo. Cuomo is expected to win re-election in a landslide.

• And apparently it still is possible to go too far in a heated campaign: Yesterday’s attempt to fraudulently portray Senator Mark Udall (D-CO) as a 9/11 truther is backfiring on GOP opposition research PAC America Rising.

Photo: Roger H. Goun via Flickr

Want more political news and analysis? Sign up for our daily email newsletter!

Midterm Roundup: Another New Low In Colorado

Here are some interesting stories on the midterm campaigns that you may have missed on Monday, September 29:

• Even in the shameless context of opposition research, this is startling: Republicans are circulating an out-of-context video of Senator Mark Udall (D-CO), in an apparent effort to convince voters that he is a 9/11 truther.

• According to a new Nielsen Brothers poll, Independent candidate Larry Pressler is gaining ground in South Dakota’s Senate race. Republican Mike Rounds now leads with 39 percent, followed by Democrat Rick Weiland at 26 percent, and Pressler at 24 percent. If Weiland dropped out, Pressler — who served three terms in the U.S. Senate as a Republican — would be virtually tied for the lead. Rounds still leads by double digits in the Real Clear Politics poll average.

• Two new CNN/ORC polls have good news for Democratic senators. In North Carolina, incumbent Democrat Kay Hagan leads Republican challenger Thom Tillis among likely voters, 46 to 43 percent. Hagan is up 3.5 percent in the poll average, and has led in every public survey this month. In Louisiana, Democrat Mary Landrieu leads Republican Bill Cassidy, 43 to 40 percent. That lead reverses a negative trend for Landrieu — she trails by 5 percent in the poll average — but would still leave her short of the 50 percent needed to avoid a runoff.

• Massachusetts attorney general Martha Coakley, whom former senator Scott Brown infamously upset in the 2010 special election for Senate, may be collapsing again. Two new polls find that her lead in Massachusetts’ gubernatorial race has evaporated; she leads Republican Charlie Baker by 1 percent in a Western New England University poll, and the candidates are deadlocked at 43 percent in a Suffolk University poll.

• And although most Democrats would rather avoid President Obama on the campaign trail, Illinois governor Pat Quinn is apparently happy to have his help. The president and his wife will both stump for Quinn before Election Day, in an effort to turn around his re-election bid against Republican Bruce Rauner. Quinn trails by less than 1 percent in the poll average, although a Chicago Tribune poll showing Quinn up by 11 appears to be an outlier skewing the numbers.

Photo: Mark Udall via Flickr

Want more political news and analysis? Sign up for our daily email newsletter!