Tag: howard lutnick
Echoes Of 'Uranium One' In Trump's Kazakh Super-Grift (Except This Scandal Is Real)

Echoes Of 'Uranium One' In Trump's Kazakh Super-Grift (Except This Scandal Is Real)

Even Americans jaded by the Trump administration’s gaudy pageant of sleaze and self-dealing may have been stunned by the latest episode of nepotistic corruption. As the New York Times reported this week, both of the president’s elder sons are profiting from a tungsten mining deal between the United States and Kazakhstan personally negotiated by their father. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick’s sons are also getting a cut of the proceeds, along with assorted other White House cronies.

Beyond the unsavory arrangements designed to cram still more billions into Trump family accounts, what this investigation exposed once again is that every Republican accusation is really a confession – even if the proof emeges a decade later. The deal revealed by the Times eerily echoes a pseudo-scandal fabricated by Trump crony Steve Bannon to smear Hillary Clinton, which theTimes dutifully promoted on its front page. Bannon was beyond delighted, of course, and the damage to the nation has been incalculable, including the latest Kazakh scam.

Tungsten is a rare metal of critical importance to US defense and technology industries whose export was restricted last year by China, a major source of reserves. An enormous deposit exists in Kazakhstan, however -- and the US effort to exploit that lode promises multi-billion-dollar paydays for the Trump and Lutnick families, as at least 14 companies connected with one or both families are actively working with the federal government on critical mineral extraction deals.

The agreement between the US and Kazakh governments quietly signed last November 6 -- with no disclosure of the Trump or Lutnick grifts -- involves a company called Kaz Resources. The federal government is also subsidizing that firm, and the Trump sons' investment, with at least $1.6 billlion in government funding. As the Times investigation noted, the Trump and Lutnick gang was “doing business with partners in a deal that their fathers were negotiating, continuing a pattern of self-enrichment in the second Trump administration that has few precedents in American history."

But the precedent for this Kazakhstan ripoff is the fake 2015 story, that originated in a "strange journalistic partnership between Bannon and theTimes. Bannon's conspiracy theory, advanced in a scurrilous book by his then-employee Peter Schweizer, claimed that Hillary Clinton had overseen the sale of US uranium assets to a Russian company, as secretary of state, in exchange for donations to the Clinton Foundation by a Canadian donor. This far-fetched notion -- which ought to have been shot down by any competentTimes editor -- ran aground on a simple fact: Neither Clinton nor the foundation exercised any control over the uranium decision. She couldn't have been bribed because she had nothing to sell.

With the imprimatur of the Times, that flimsy tale nevertheless spread far and wide, inflicting permanent harm on Clinton's reputation, her ensuing campaign for president, and the good name of her family's highly successful charity. It was an entirely fraudulent canard for which the paper of record has yet to offer an appropriate correcton or apology. Perhaps someone on the editorial board or Op-Ed page will draw the comparison noted here -- and thus redeem at least a fraction of the ruin that its pages are now recording.




Will Firing More Cabinet Members Improve Trump's Sagging Approval Numbers?

Will Firing More Cabinet Members Improve Trump's Sagging Approval Numbers?

A Reuters report on Saturday claimed President Donald Trump was weighing a “reset” in his administration to arrest what he considered “unfair” media coverage over his Iran fiasco. That one sentence undersells just how unhinged this is.

U.S. President Donald Trump is considering a broader cabinet shake-up in the wake of Attorney General Pam Bondi's removal this week, as he grows increasingly frustrated with the political fallout from the war with Iran, five people familiar with internal White House discussions said.

Of course he’s frustrated. He created this mess himself, and this time he can’t declare bankruptcy, stiff his creditors, or sic lawyers on the problem until it disappears. He promised “no wars,” and now he owns one. There’s no easy exit.

Any potential reshuffling could serve as a reset for the White House as it confronts a politically challenging stretch: The five-week-old war has driven up gas prices, dragged down Trump's approval ratings and intensified anxiety about the consequences for Republicans heading into November's midterm elections.

That’s the reality. Republicans tied themselves to Trump, and now they’re stuck with the consequences. The problem is the rest of the country and the world is stuck with him, too.

Some allies said his televised speech to the nation on Wednesday - which one senior White House official described as an attempt to project a sense of control and confidence about the direction of the war - fell flat, adding to the sense that changes in messaging or personnel were needed.

There was never a scenario where another rambling Trump speech was going to reassure anyone. If anything, it was always going to make things worse. People are done with him. They gave him a second chance, and he’s screwed it up beyond recognition. No one outside the MAGA deplorables is giving him the benefit of the doubt, ever again.

Several of the sources said Tulsi Gabbard, Trump's director of national intelligence, and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick are among those potentially on the chopping block, after Trump ousted Bondi and Homeland Security ⁠Secretary Kristi Noem in recent weeks.Trump has in recent months expressed displeasure with Gabbard, said one senior White House official. Another source with direct knowledge of the matter said Trump had asked allies about their thoughts on potential replacements for his intelligence chief

Gabbard is awful, but funny how his immediate hit list is all the women in his Cabinet. That’s not a coincidence.

The same report notes that Trump himself isn’t particularly bothered by Lutnick. The discomfort is coming from others in his orbit over Lutnick’s ties to convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. Trump’s own history there speaks for itself.

Trump could ultimately decide, however, not to make any changes to his administration's senior ranks. Several others close to Trump have said the ⁠president is reluctant to overhaul his cabinet too frequently, after recurrent staffing changes during his first term dominated headlines and created the impression of chaos at the White House.

Nothing about this is about governing. He assembled a Cabinet of loyalists with little regard for competence, and now that his administration is trapped in a public opinion death spiral, his instinct is to reshuffle the deck rather than change course. The people he’s thinking about firing didn’t create the underlying problem.

Still, after his disappointing speech on Wednesday, doing nothing could be just as politically dangerous as making a significant change that, for better or for worse, would dominate news headlines, one White House official said.

Actually, doing nothing for the next three years would quite literally be the best political move Trump could do.

Trump worked with his speechwriting team and top advisers on this week's prime-time address, one official said, after aides had urged him for weeks to speak directly to the nation about the U.S. role in Iran [...]"The speech did not accomplish what it was supposed to," the official said, adding that while Trump's core supporters still backed him on the war, they are broadly under economic strain.

Even that framing misses the point. The issue isn’t presentation. It’s the substance.

Two ⁠of the White House officials said Trump is extremely frustrated with what he perceives to be unfair media coverage of the war in Iran, and he has made clear to his team he wants more positive news accounts. He has not indicated, however, that he is interested in adjusting his own messaging strategy.

There is no “messaging strategy” to adjust. The behavior is the problem. Demanding better coverage while continuing the same actions that caused the backlash is not a plan.

If Trump wants more positive news coverage, there is one obvious option: step aside.

Still, the sources said the possibility of a shake-up had grown decidedly more serious in recent weeks. One senior White House source said Trump wants to make any big changes now, well ahead of the midterms.

Quite literally every single one of his Cabinet members deserves to be fired, and every single possible replacement would look the same: loyalists first, competence optional.

We are stuck in a political nightmare. The only silver lining is that Trump, himself, is as well.

Markos Moulitsas is founder and editor of the blogging website Daily Kos and author of three books.

Reprinted with permission from Daily Kos

Bessent and Lutnick with Trump in Oval Office

Bessent And Lutnick's Fantasy Stock Earnings Won't Finance Your Retirement

We all know how Trump likes to make up crazy numbers, which his lackeys then repeat. He has $18 trillion in foreign investment coming into the country. He won the 2020 election by millions of votes. He is lowering drug prices by 1500%.

We can usually just laugh these off as the ramblings of an old man suffering from dementia. But there is one crazy Trump number that it is important people know should not be taken seriously. This is the claim on stock returns that lackeys like Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick tout when telling people how much money their new-born kid can get from their Trump accounts.

In their telling, the $1000 that the government is putting into the Trump accounts, starting this year, will grow to more than $590,000 when the kid reaches retirement age. If their families are able to put the full $5,000 allowed into the account, they will have more than $2.5 million when they reach retirement, and that assumes no further contributions. (They can put up to $5,000 a year into the account.)

That’s a serious chunk of money, even if we cut it by four to adjust for projected inflation over this period. It’s also serious nonsense. The problem is that there is no plausible story whereby the stock market can provide the 10 percent nominal return the Bessent-Lutnick gang is pushing. In their story, price-to-earnings ratios would have to go through the roof.

By 2093, when our newborn kid plans to cash out the fortune in their Trump account, their 10 percent compounded returns would imply a price-to-earnings ratio (PE) of almost 1400. The problem is that if the Trump accounts are growing at the rate of 10 percent a year, the economy and corporate profits are only growing at a bit less than 4.0 percent annually. This causes the PE to go through the roof.

This is not an old problem. Some of us have been trying to point this one out to arithmetic fans ever since the Social Security privatization debates of the 1990s. While the stock market has historically provided returns that were higher than the economy’s rate of growth, this was possible because the PE in the stock market has averaged around 14 to 1. It is currently close to 40 to 1.

The simplest way to calculate the real rate of return consistent with a stable PE is to simply take the reciprocal of the PE ratio. When the PE ratio is 14, the sustainable real rate of return is 7.1 percent percent. Adding in inflation that has averaged close to 3.0 percent, gets the 10.0 percent that we can see going back 100 years.

But with the current PE close to 40, this sort of rate of return is not possible unless the PE gets ever higher. The sustainable real rate of return would be just over 2.5 percent. Adding in projected inflation of 2.3 percent gets us to 4.8 percent, well below the Bessent-Lutnick promise.

The moral of this story is that, just as no one in their right mind would take health advice from RFK Jr., no one in their right mind should take financial advice from the Bessent-Lutnick gang. As the saying goes, do your own research.

Dean Baker is a senior economist at the Center for Economic and Policy Research and the author of the 2016 book Rigged: How Globalization and the Rules of the Modern Economy Were Structured to Make the Rich Richer. Please consider subscribing to his Substack.

Reprinted with permission from Dean Baker.

'National Review' Demands That Trump Explain Why He Protects Epstein Cronies

'National Review' Demands That Trump Explain Why He Protects Epstein Cronies

National Review writer Noah Rothman admits Democrats are tearing President Donald Trump to shreds for clinging to friends and confidants of convicted sex trafficker Jeffrey Epstein.

Rothman pointed to a recent X post by Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-MN) — which accused Trump of protecting child abusers and claiming that in her home country of Somalia, child predators are executed — to argue that Trump is carrying the kind of baggage that could bring down an entire administration.

“The president and his allies have not been able to leverage reckless remarks like these, render them liabilities and impose a political price on their expostulators,” Rothman wrote. “They don’t even seem to be trying. It’s not at all clear why.”

Trump’s “onetime aide and federal convict, Steve Bannon,” was “chummy with Epstein long after the child abuser was convicted of his crimes,” reports Rothman. “Indeed, even on the eve of Epstein’s final arrest, Bannon was committed to making a documentary about the former financier explicitly designed to rehabilitate his image.”

So why on earth, demands Rothman, would Trump’s solicitor general, D. John Sauer be lobbying an appeals court to drop charges against Bannon to erase his conviction for obstructing the House's January 6 investigation?

“Behavior like this is the augur in which conspiracy theories bloom,” warned Rothman.

Similarly, Trump’s Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick “maintained surreptitious relations with Epstein long after he repeatedly claimed (once, under oath) that he cut the pervert off, (after 2005),” according to what Rothman told CNBC.

But the so-called ‘Epstein Files’ made Lutnick out to be a liar by revealing that in December 2012, Epstein invited Lutnick to lunch on his private island in the U.S. Virgin Islands. The two also had business dealings as recently as 2014, according to CBS News.

Any retaliation the Trump administration makes against Democrats’ Epstein accusations, said Rothman, “will be limited by the administration’s efforts to shield those in Trump’s orbit with deeper ties to Epstein from accountability.”

“Certainly, figures like Bannon and Lutnick, who are guilty not of mere association but of misleading law enforcement, lawmakers, or the public, complicate the White House’s efforts to indemnify the president,” said Rothman. “It’s not at all clear why these two replaceable components in the MAGA machine are worth the effort."

Reprinted with permission from Alternet

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