Two analyses of the House of Representatives’ version of President Donald Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” found that its deep Medicaid cuts — which right-wing media figures have supported for months — would result in more than 11,000 preventable deaths annually. When all aspects of the legislation are included, according to one of the analyses, the bill could cause an estimated 51,000 preventable deaths per year.
Right-wing media figures, however, have repeatedly claimed that people who “deserve” to be on Medicaid won’t be affected by the bill. Instead, they falsely argue that Medicaid will be strengthened for “the people that actually need it,” as Fox News’ Sean Hannity put it recently.
It remains to be seen exactly how much congressional Republicans will end up slashing Medicaid, as the House legislation passed on May 22 and the Senate is currently finalizing its own version.
The House version of the bill finances massive tax benefits for the extremely wealthy with its steep Medicaid cuts, which include the harshest Medicaid work requirements Congress has ever put forward.
The bill would also limit states’ ability to access federal funding by freezing what’s known as provider taxes, and punish states that use their own money to offer health insurance to immigrants.
The Senate’s proposed Medicaid cuts are even deeper than those in the House bill.
Researchers estimate Medicaid cuts in GOP bill could result in over 11,000 deaths annually
The two studies that examined the House’s legislation came to similar conclusions, though one focused primarily on the bill’s Medicaid provisions while the other took a look at the legislation as a whole.
The more recent study, from the Annals of Internal Medicine, was published June 17 and examined the House GOP’s proposed Medicaid cuts.
“Enactment of the House bill advanced in May would increase the number of uninsured persons by 7.6 million and the number of deaths by 16 642 annually, according to a mid-range estimate,” the authors write.
The authors stress that even this estimate could be an undercount, as their figures “exclude harms from lowering provider payments and shrinking benefits, as well as possible repercussions from states increasing taxes or shifting expenditures from other needs to make up for shortfalls in federal Medicaid funding.”
They also acknowledge that they and the Congressional Budget Office — which offers analysis of federal spending — made an “assumption that many of those losing Medicaid coverage would find alternative coverage,” which “may be overly optimistic.”
Conservative pundits claim Medicaid cuts won’t harm people who “deserve” health insurance
Previously, analysis from KFF found that the proposed bill would decimate hospitals that provide care to large numbers of Medicaid recipients, especially in rural areas, which would likely compound the harms of the legislation.
The other research into the Big Beautiful Bill’s effects, published June 3, was conducted by experts at the Yale School of Public Health, and was commissioned by two Senate committees working on their chambers’ version of the bill.
The Yale experts estimated that 7.7 million people would lose insurance as a result of the House bill, which would “result in an estimated 11,300 additional deaths annually due to lost access to Medicaid or ACA Marketplace coverage.”
The stark number increases dramatically when other aspects of the bill are included. The proposed legislation would end support for Medicare Savings Programs — cost sharing programs that allow Medicaid to pay Medicare premiums — leading to an estimated 1.38 million low-income Medicare beneficiaries losing their coverage. The authors write that the bill “would increase mortality by 18,200 per year due to reduced access to subsidized prescriptions.”
The House version also repeals nursing home staffing standards — which could lead to an estimated 13,000 deaths annually — and fails to extend the Affordable Care Act premium tax credit, which the authors write “is expected to push another 5 million Americans into uninsurance, resulting in 8,811 more deaths each year.”
In all, the authors estimate that the Big Beautiful Bill could result in more than 51,000 preventable deaths every year.
Right-wing media insists those who “deserve” coverage won’t be affected by the bill
These credible estimates are virtually absent from right-wing media coverage of the bill. To the contrary, conservative pundits have supported many of the most draconian aspects of the Big Beautiful Bill, including its burdensome and unnecessary work requirements — one of the key mechanisms in the legislation to kick people off of Medicaid.
Conservative pundits have also frequently pushed the false narrative that the Republican legislation won’t harm people who “deserve” health insurance, whether that’s Medicaid or private plans purchased through the ACA.
- Fox News host Sean Hannity dismissed the Yale study’s conclusions, repeating that the cuts to Medicaid were “nonexistent.” He added that his reading of the bill was that “the only thing that would be cut are those people that don't belong on the rolls that have given fraudulent information that will be weeded out of services they never deserved in the first place.” [Fox News, Hannity, 6/5/25]
- On his radio show, Hannity said the bill’s so-called Medicaid reforms would only target “able-bodied” people running “scams,” who “are sources of legitimate savings without reducing benefits to the people that actually need it.” [Premiere Radio Network, The Sean Hannity Show, 6/6/25]
- The Daily Wire’s Michael Knowles claimed that the bill “is not taking health care funding away from the people who deserve it,” but rather, “it’s taking Medicaid funding away from the 1.4 million illegals who are on Medicaid.” Knowles added, “It's taking Medicaid funding away from people who are abusing the system, who are not legally entitled to it, people who refuse to work, people who don't meet even basic requirements to avail themselves of health care and welfare.” [The Daily Wire, The Michael Knowles Show, 6/4/25]
- On Hannity, former House speaker and current Fox contributor Newt Gingrich argued that the proposed Medicaid cuts will not “take anybody deserving of help off the Medicaid rolls,” but will impact “illegal immigrants … people who refuse to work and … people who are crooks.” He went on, saying, “Why the Democratic party would want to be the party of illegal immigrants, crooks, and people who refuse to work is beyond me.” [Fox News, Hannity, 6/3/25]
- Fox News anchor Martha MacCallum said that Medicaid “expanded greatly over Covid — people got used to a lot of these benefits and they don’t want to give them up,” but that cuts are necessary so “that people who deserve these benefits can get them.” Her guest, Fox Business host Charles Payne, previously said, “Those who can work and are getting these benefits, they should work.” [Fox News, The Story With Martha MacCallum, 5/20/25]
- On his War Room podcast, former Trump adviser Steve Bannon said that “we don’t want to cut Medicaid to the folks that need it” adding that “25% of MAGA is on Medicaid … but it’s got to be very restrictive.” He continued: “Two and a half million illegal aliens have all to go,” and suggested that work requirements should be for “80 hours a week,” rather than 80 hours a month, as the House bill mandates. [Real America’s Voice, War Room, 5/19/25; Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, 6/12/25]
- On Fox News, former congressional adviser Emily Domenech said, “When it comes to Medicaid, we’re looking at opportunities to cut back on the waste, fraud, and abuse that make the programs cost too much and take away from the people who really deserve them.” [Fox News, The Faulkner Focus, 5/16/25]
Reprinted with permission from Media Matters.
