Tag: supreme court
How Do Democrats Negotiate With A President Who Says He Can Negate Any Deal?

How Do Democrats Negotiate With A President Who Says He Can Negate Any Deal?

I’ll confess to just being an economist and not a lawyer or a political consultant, but my mother did raise me to have some common sense. In this shutdown, and actually before, Donald Trump is claiming that he could choose not to spend any funds he doesn’t feel like spending. He has carried it further with the shutdown, canceling major infrastructure projects in states and congressional districts represented by Democrats, but the point is that Trump claims discretion to do whatever he wants with federal spending.

The Republicans in Congress, and possibly the Republican Supreme Court, also say this is okay. If Trump wants to refuse to spend money appropriated by Congress, even if the only reason is to punish his political opponents, this is apparently fine with Republican politicians.

In fact, Trump has gone so far as to pronounce himself generous for having given money allocated by Congress to blue states. This is like the bank teller calling themselves generous for giving you the $200 you withdrew from your checking account. But that is where our politics is right now.

In this context, what possible reason could the Democrats have for making a deal? Trump and the Republicans are openly telling them it means nothing. It would be like negotiating the price of a renovation project with a building owner, when the owner openly tells you that they will pay you only what they feel like, regardless of the negotiated price. (Yeah, I know that’s what Trump did in his business.)

Anyhow, maybe I’m missing something, but this seems an important part of the current impasse which is not getting anywhere near the attention it deserves. With prior presidents this would not have been an issue. It had long been the understanding, upheld by the courts, that the president must spend funds appropriated by Congress.

But with Trump and the Calvin Ball Republicans making up whatever rules they want, and the Roberts Supreme Court finding the justification in the Constitution, a deal doesn’t mean what it used to mean. It’s true that you can’t run a country this way, but there is no reason for the Democratic Party to give cover to a crazy charade.

There can be no deal without some real rules that Trump is bound by. Even a Republican politician should be able to understand that.

Dean Baker is a senior economist at the Center for Economic and Policy Research and the author of the 2016 book Rigged: How Globalization and the Rules of the Modern Economy Were Structured to Make the Rich Richer. Please consider subscribing to his Substack.

Reprinted with permission from Dean Baker.

Kimmel's Triumph: A Sign That The Tide Is Turning Against Autocracy?

Kimmel's Triumph: A Sign That The Tide Is Turning Against Autocracy?

It’s irrefutable now: Trump is nakedly following the playbook of autocrats like Vladimir Putin and Viktor Orban. As his poll numbers fall, he is rushing to lock in permanent power by punishing his opponents and intimidating everyone else into submission. Craven congressional Republicans and a complicit Supreme Court have abetted Trump’s destruction of our democratic safeguards and norms.

Yet Trump has a significant problem that neither Putin nor Orban faced. When Putin and Orban were consolidating their autocratics, they were genuinely popular. They were perceived by the public as effective and competent leaders. Just nine months into his presidency, Trump, by contrast, is deeply unpopular. He is increasingly seen as chaotic and inept. As David Frum says, this means that he is in a race against time. Can he consolidate power before he loses his aura of inevitability? Will those who run major institutions – particularly corporate CEOs – understand that we are at a crucial juncture, and that by accommodating Trump they have more to lose than by standing up to him?

To put it bluntly, is the Jimmy Kimmel affair the harbinger of a failed Trumpian putsch?

Before I address that question, I want to offer some historical comparisons that illustrate how poorly Trump is doing compared with his role models, Putin and Orban. I wrote about this a couple of weeks ago, but I think the point deserves further elaboration.

First, Russia. Putin appears to have been extremely popular in the early 2000s, as he was consolidating power. His net approval — approval minus disapproval — was consistently above 50 percent.

Why was Putin so popular? Kitchen table issues. The Russian economy performed very badly for years after the fall of Communism, culminating in a devastating financial crisis in 1998. But Putin got to preside over a rapid economic recovery: Real GDP per capita doubled between 1998 and 2008:


Viktor Orban has never been as popular as Putin at his peak. Nonetheless, for most of the 2010s, as he consolidated power, his net approval was strongly positive, often by 10 points or more. Again, the main explanation was probably his perceived economic success. Orban took power at a time when Hungary’s economy was deeply depressed by austerity policies, and was able to preside over a large decline in unemployment:

Trump’s net approval, by contrast, turned negative within weeks after taking office and has just continued to fall:

As G. Elliott Morris points out, his position looks even worse when you consider intensity. Almost half the public disapproves “strongly,” twice the share with strong approval.

Some of the public’s disdain for Trump reflects alarm over his assault on democracy, the spectacle of abductions by masked secret police, his attacks on education and public health, his destruction of key agencies like the FBI, and more. Yet, as always, economics plays a key role in Trump’s cratering popularity.

People have not forgotten that Trump made big promises during the campaign: He would end inflation on day one, reduce the price of groceries, and cut electricity prices in half. None of that is remotely happening. Moreover, more economic pain is coming as the full inflationary impact of tariffs and deportations will soon be felt. Not surprisingly, consumer sentiment has plunged. It’s almost as low as it was in the summer of 2022, when Covid-induced supply-chain inflation was at its peak:


It’s clear that if Trump were subject to normal political constraints, obliged to follow the rule of law and accept election results, he would already be a political lame duck. His future influence and those of his minions would be greatly reduced by his unpopularity. But at this juncture he is a quasi-autocrat. He is the leader of a party that accommodates his every whim, backed by a corrupt Supreme Court prepared to validate whatever he does, no matter how clearly it violates the law.

As a result, Trump has been able to use the vast power of the federal government to deliver punishments and rewards in a completely unprecedented way. He has arbitrarily cut off funding to universities, refused to spend Congressionally-mandated funds, threatened to take away broadcast licenses, fired officials who are supposed to have job security, pardoned J6 insurrectionists, defied the lower courts, retaliated against those who have tried to hold him accountable, and enriched his family. This has created a climate of intimidation, with many institutions preemptively capitulating to Trump’s demands as if he already had total power.

But the fact is that Trump has not yet locked in his autocracy. Timid institutions are failing to understand not only how unpopular Trump is, but also how severe a backlash they are likely to face for surrendering without a fight.

They should understand, because some major corporations have already seen the costs of surrendering to Trump. Notably, Target’s decision to appease Trump by ending its commitment to DEI led to a large decline in sales and a falling stock price amid a rising market, and eventually cost the CEO his job. Law firms who have capitulated to Trump have lost clients and partners to law firms that stood up to him. And need we talk about the popularity of Tesla cars and Cybertrucks?

Yet Disney was evidently completely unprepared for the backlash caused by its decision to take Jimmy Kimmel off the air, a backlash so costly that the company reversed course after just five days — too late to avoid probably irreparable damage to its brand. And this time I hope and believe that other institutions will take notice.

It’s important to understand that Trump’s push to destroy democracy depends largely on creating a self-fulfilling prophecy. Behind closed doors, business leaders bemoan the destruction that Trump is wreaking on the economy. But they capitulate to his demands because they expect him to consolidate autocratic power — which, given his unpopularity, he can only do if businesses and other institutions continue to capitulate.

If this smoke-and-mirrors juggernaut starts to falter, the perception of inevitability will collapse and Trump’s autocracy putsch may very well fall apart.

So how can we make a Trump implosion more likely? The public can help by doing what Target’s customers and Disney’s audience did — make it clear that they will stop paying money to institutions that lend aid and comfort to the authoritarian project.

Like a schoolyard bully, Trump understands that effective intimidation relies upon picking off his opponents one-by-one. So institutions (such as law firms) can help by cooperating to resist Trump’s demands rather than simply looking out for their own interests. They should understand that there is no reward for appeasing MAGA with performative displays of cowardice.

And last but not least, Democrats should begin making it loud and clear that if and when MAGA is dethroned, those who broke the law, those who corrupted our democracy out of deference to Trump will be held accountable. For example, corporate mergers that hurt consumers but enriched Trump’s toadies can and will be re-examined by future Democratic administrations.

It’s ironic, but thanks in part to a late-night comedian, it’s becoming clear that America is not yet lost.

Paul Krugman is a Nobel Prize-winning economist and former professor at MIT and Princeton who now teaches at the City University of New York's Graduate Center. From 2000 to 2024, he wrote a column for The New York Times. Please consider subscribing to his Substack.

Reprinted with permission from Paul Krugman.

Flag-Burning Crackdown Is Just Trump's Latest 'Patriotic' Stunt

Flag-Burning Crackdown Is Just Trump's Latest 'Patriotic' Stunt

At the White House Monday, Trump signed another one of his infamous executive orders, this time announcing, "If you burn a flag, you get one year in jail."

Not so fast.

If the executive order said that, as Yale Law Professor Jed Rubenfeld persuasively argues in The Free Press this week, it would be unconstitutional on its face. Under current law, that is.And isn't that really the point?

In 1989, the Supreme Court held in Texas v. Johnson that the First Amendment protected burning a flag in a political protest. The court the next year reaffirmed that holding in striking down a federal flag desecration statute in United States v. Eichman.

So, no, Trump didn't sign an executive order imposing a one-year jail term for burning the flag. Instead, it tells the Justice Department that if they're considering whether to prosecute an actual crime or civil violation you were engaged in and you were burning a flag, then they should prioritize prosecuting whatever else you were doing. If you burn a flag while committing "violent crimes, hate crimes, illegal discrimination against American citizens," or "crimes against property and the peace," (that is, presumably, something that could get you a year in jail), then you'll get prosecuted for that, even if others who do the same thing without burning a flag don't.

So technically no one gets prosecuted for flag burning. Except, of course, they are, and we know it because the president directed that they should be.

Prosecutorial discretion is a black box in the criminal justice system, largely shrouded, usually respected, but not without limits. Put aside the already shredded tradition of prosecutorial independence from political dictates, there are constitutional limits to what prosecutors can consider in making otherwise discretionary decisions. One of those is obviously race. Another, under basic constitutional doctrine, should be protected expression. If it cannot be prohibited, how can it be a legitimate basis for prosecutorial discretion?

If Trump's prosecutors had simply exercised their discretion the way they know he would like them to, and made an example of flag burners by charging them with other crimes or civil violations, you'd be hard-pressed to challenge the prosecutors' motives for doing so.

But here, by issuing an executive order, Trump has opened up prosecutions that do just that to constitutional challenge — and the order itself to constitutional invalidation. A rather costly stunt, if you look at it that way.

That is surely not how the Trump team is looking at it. The cases that establish "current law" — that is, the Constitution as we know it today — are 35 years old. They were 5-4 decisions. They are binding on the lower courts. They are not, plainly to his mind, binding on Donald Trump.

On the face of it, his executive order avoids a direct confrontation with existing law by the use of the priorities approach, but they are smart enough to know it will be challenged. And they will welcome that. It will be an opportunity to ask the court to overrule the precedents that protect political speech from the suppression of a dictator. This episode may be mostly stunt, but it is only one in a longer-running assault on free speech.

Trump, Bondi And Gabbard Mount A Vulgar And Vicious Purge

Trump, Bondi And Gabbard Mount A Vulgar And Vicious Purge

It’s the moment we’ve feared, the moment the Supreme Court invoked in giving Trump immunity, and the moment that marks an authoritarian government at its most vulgar and vicious.

On Monday, Attorney General Pam Bondi signed an order directing an as-yet-unidentified federal prosecutor to convene a grand jury to investigate whether prominent officials in Barack Obama's administration, including Obama himself, purposely manufactured an intelligence assessment in January 2017.

The supposed purpose of this scheme: to promote a “false narrative” that Russia and its president Vladimir Putin engaged in an operation to interfere in the 2016 U.S. election with the intent of helping Trump win.

Problem #1: there's nothing whatsoever false about this narrative.

The Intelligence Community Assessment (ICA), prepared by career professionals and our intelligence agencies, indeed concluded:

"Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered an influence campaign in 2016 to undermine public faith in the U.S. democratic process, denigrate Secretary Clinton, and harm her electability and potential presidency."

That conclusion has been repeatedly reaffirmed in multiple investigations—including those led by Mueller, the Senate Intelligence Committee, and Special Prosecutor John Durham.

The bipartisan Senate Intelligence Committee unanimously found that the ICA was “coherent and well constructed” and reconfirmed that Russia “engaged in an aggressive, multi-faceted effort to influence” the 2016 election in Trump’s favor.

Durham’s work is particularly instructive here. He was a Trump U.S. Attorney whom Attorney General William Barr tasked with leading an investigation into the origins of the FBI's Crossfire Hurricane probe into alleged Trump–Russia campaign ties. He investigated exhaustively—over almost four years—whether anyone broke the law in connection with the 2016 intelligence assessments.

While Durham’s final report found certain procedural faults with intelligence actors and the Mueller operation, it confirmed that Russian spies were behind the hacking of Democratic campaign files and the release of campaign emails. It specifically failed to find a plot approved by Clinton to tie Trump to Putin.

So much for the notion—jealously protected and prized by certain Trump loyalists including Hubbard—that the ICA was a fraud cooked up by the Obama administration to hurt Trump’s electoral prospects and thereafter delegitimize his victory.

Or so you might think.

But now enter Tulsi Gabbard, Trump’s controversial pick for Director of National Intelligence. Trump strong-armed her confirmation notwithstanding her lack of any experience in the intelligence community—a depressing point she has in common with so many Trump nominees—and her apparent pro-Syria and pro-Russia sympathies. Over 100 former intelligence professionals wrote to Congress to warn that her candidacy posed a national security risk.

Gabbard has gone on the warpath in recent weeks with a series of document dumps seeking to revisit the unanimous verdict about 2016. Last month, she appeared at the White House press podium to accuse Obama, along with former CIA Director John Brennan, former Director of National Intelligence James Clapper, and former FBI Director James Comey, of engineering a “years-long coup” against Trump.

She then chimed in that the information she was releasing showed a “treasonous conspiracy” by top Obama administration officials.

A few days later, Trump touted Gabbard’s comments and took it over the top, laying it on Obama himself: “It’s there. He’s guilty. This was treason.”

Unsurprisingly, both Trump and Gabbard’s treason charges were constitutionally illiterate. Treason—the most serious crime a citizen can undertake against the country, and one punishable by death—is expressly defined in the Constitution:

“Treason against the United States shall consist only in levying War against them, or in adhering to their Enemies, giving them Aid and Comfort.”

It’s only Trump’s twisted “l’état, c’est moi” mindset that can construe a supposed political attack on him as an act of treason against the state.

At her White House appearance, Gabbard crowed: “There is irrefutable evidence that details how President Obama and his national security team directed the creation of an intelligence community assessment that they knew was false.”

The “irrefutable evidence” turns out to be stray bits of unverified intelligence that the agencies could not substantiate and that did not alter or weaken their bottom-line assessment of Russia’s involvement.

Gabbard capped her deranged performance with a criminal referral to DOJ, seeking investigation and prosecution of the members of the “treasonous conspiracy,” including Clapper, Brennan, Comey, and Obama.

And sure enough, Bondi—who, like Gabbard, is duty-bound to be apolitical—greenlighted the scurrilous investigation.

That piled impropriety on top of impropriety. The DOJ manual—which one suspects has been run through the shredder—requires an “adequate factual predicate” before convening a grand jury. It’s unethical to use it for a fishing expedition. That rule, in fact, is what prompted the resignation of the criminal chief of the D.C. U.S. Attorney’s Office, whom Ed Marin Jr., Trump’s first choice to lead the office, ordered to undertake a grand jury investigation without predication.

And of course, since there’s no way of showing the ICA is false (because it isn’t), there’s even less prospect of proving beyond a reasonable doubt that Obama and his supposed co-conspirators not only got the intelligence wrong but intentionally set out to falsify it.

Gabbard’s argument for criminal intent seems to begin and end with her false allegation that the ICA was inaccurate—so, of course, it must have been intentionally manufactured, and of course that must mean a political conspiracy reaching all the way to the top, displacing the entire network of intelligence professionals.

It’s the hallmark of the Trump faithful: viewing every act of government through a political lens, and assuming everyone else is doing the same.

That doesn’t mean the damage here is limited to rhetoric. First, a prosecutor in the right district could easily ram a bogus case through a grand jury, and so saddle Obama and others with the cost, burden, and stigma of criminal defense. Or they could ultimately decline to bring charges—because no legitimate prosecutor would touch them—and then hold up that decision as some twisted badge of fairness. See, they’ll say, we’re the ones who exercise restraint, unlike the partisan hacks who dared to prosecute Trump for actual, documented crimes.

Republicans will claim this is all just payback for what Democrats did to Trump. In a country that still gave a damn about facts or the rule of law, that argument would be laughed out of the room. The cases against Trump weren’t political—they were textbook examples of what the justice system is supposed to do when someone in power breaks the law.

Trump hoarded classified documents and bragged about them on tape. He tried to strong-arm election officials and incited a mob to stop the peaceful transfer of power. The prosecutions were slow, careful, and supported by mountains of evidence.

What’s happening now is the opposite: the weaponization of the justice system to settle political scores, built not on facts but on fever-dream conspiracies that have already been repeatedly debunked.

It’s hard to overstate how dangerous this moment is, and how strongly it calls on all of us to reject it categorically. Using the machinery of criminal justice to pursue manufactured charges against political predecessors is the stuff of strongmen and collapsing democracies.

From Putin’s endless prosecutions of opposition figures like Navalny, to Erdoğan’s jailing of rivals and judges after labeling them coup plotters, to the cycles of vengeance in post-coup Egypt, this is the textbook authoritarian move. It corrodes trust in democratic transitions, chills dissent, and redefines political opposition as criminal subversion.

As Steven Levitsky and Daniel Ziblatt argue in How Democracies Die, once democratic norms around restraint and mutual legitimacy are breached, they rarely recover easily. Trump is mowing down the guardrails of democracy—and the institutions built to stop him are watching with the sound off.

Ironically, this very kind of weaponization of law enforcement to pursue political attacks was one of the dangers the Supreme Court cited in granting Trump immunity for official acts. Chief Justice Roberts stressed that the rule was essential:

“Without immunity, such types of prosecutions of ex-Presidents could quickly become routine… an executive branch that cannibalizes itself, with each successive President free to prosecute his predecessors, yet unable to boldly and fearlessly carry out his duties for fear that he may be next.”

So who is cannibalizing their predecessors now?

Reprinted with permission from Substack.

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