New Polls: Trump Seems To Be Losing Ground In Electoral College Contest

In a report published on September 11, the New York Times' Nate Cohn stresses that Biden may be gaining an "Electoral College advantage."

"In the midterm elections last fall," Cohn explains, "Democrats fared about the same in the crucial battleground states as they did nationwide. And over the last year, state polls and a compilation of New York Times/Siena College surveys have shown Mr. Biden running as well or better in the battlegrounds as nationwide, with the results by state broadly mirroring the midterms."

Cohn adds, "The patterns in recent polling and election results are consistent with the trends in national surveys, which suggest that the demographic foundations of Mr. Trump's Electoral College advantage might be fading."

According to Cohn, three "basic pieces of evidence" indicate that Trump's "key advantage might be diminished today: the midterms, the Times/Siena polls and state polls."

"On average, Mr. Biden continues to match his 2020 performance in the states where Democrats fared better than average in the midterms, a group that includes every major battleground state," Cohn observes. "Instead, all of his weakness in Times/Siena national polling is concentrated in the states where Democrats fared worse than average last November. In the sample of 774 respondents in the battleground states, Mr. Biden leads Mr. Trump, 47-43, compared with a 46-44 lead among all registered voters nationwide."

Cohn continues, "On the other hand, Mr. Biden leads by 17 points, 50-33, in a sample of 781 respondents in California and New York — the two blue states that primarily cost Democrats the House last November — down from a 27-point margin for Mr. Biden in 2020."