Smart. Sharp. Funny. Fearless.

Monday, December 09, 2019 {{ new Date().getDay() }}

Reprinted with permission from DCReport.

Donald Trump keeps boasting about what a great economy he should get credited for creating. But his administration’s own reports don’t support his claims, which also don’t come close to what he promised voters.

His results so far have been, well, just average.

As if it were a stellar achievement, Trump boasted last week, the economy grew at an annual rate of 3.2 percent in the first three months of this year. Big deal. That’s precisely the average since 1947.

Candidate Trump boasted many times that he would boost economic growth. In October 2015, he said: “I actually think we can go higher than 4 percent. I think you can go to 5 percent or 6 percent.”

So far, the best he has done is 4.2% in the second quarter of 2018.

That figure was achieved by a threat that briefly juiced the numbers. Trump declared he would impose all sorts of trade tariffs. Smart importers and exporters took advantage of the delay between the threat and the effective to bulk up on deals early. That briefly pumped up economic growth by moving up deals scheduled for later in the year. The proof? In the next three months, economic growth fell by almost half to just a 2.2 percent rate.

Obama’s quarterly economic growth rate beat Trump’s best four times, George W. Bush five times, Bill Clinton and Ronald Reagan 13 times each. One-term president Jimmy Carter beat Trump six times and one-termer George H. W. Bush did it five times.

Carter’s best, by the way, was 16.4 percent growth, four times Trump’s best so far.

The tariffs gambit was not the only stimulus Trump used to pump up his short-term numbers and trick voters not steeped in economic data, fiscal policy and trade reports.

With solid backing from Republicans in Congress, Trump is borrowing extra trillions of dollars in our name. That’s a classic type of economic stimulus.

Republicans traditionally denounced borrow-and-spend as a tax on our children and grandchildren. A tax cut, like Trump’s, that does not pay for itself with equal or increased revenue, is just a tax increase deferred into the future – with interest.

Tax revenues this year are down about 10%.

The Trump/radical GOP tax cut that took effect last year mostly benefits the rich and corporations. That means the cost of the borrowing is an obligation we all must bear, but the benefits flow mostly to those who need help the least.

Trump’s last budget is projected to run a deficit almost 1.5 times the size of Obama’s last budget deficit according to the Trump administration’s own data, known as Historical Table 1.3.

Trump’s average annual budget deficit over four years will be the worst of any president from Carter through George W. Bush.

The average Trump shortfall will be 4.6 percent of the economy.

Obama’s was about the same as Trump at five percent of the economy, mostly because of the Great Recession that he inherited. In his second term, Obama’s budget shortfall was less than 2.5 percent of the economy.

George W. Bush came in at 3.3 percent. Clinton’s annual deficit was a mere 0.1 percent because he ran surpluses in his second term.

The cost to you of Trump’s borrow-and-spend approach? Instead of retiring the federal debt in eight years, as Trump told voters he could easily do because he was “the king of debt,” the federal debt is growing at the rate of $30 per day for a family of four. That’s almost $11,000 per year for that family.

Trump’s borrow-and-spend, however, has failed to stimulate faster jobs creation.

Under Trump, job growth is slower than under Obama. Trump’s average is 198,000 more jobs per month. That’s good, but far from great.

Obama, during his last six years and a month, averaged 204,000 more jobs each month

Why not rate Obama based on his full eight years? Because when he took office jobs were disappearing at the rate of 750,000 a month, clearly not his fault.

America’s population grew by 19 million people in the eight years between when Obama and Trump took office. Taking the larger population into account makes Trump’s job growth figures even less impressive since a larger population requires more jobs just to stay even.

Trump promised if elected the nation would add 25 million new jobs in 10 years. He’s on track to fall more than a million jobs short of that goal.

That goal was nothing to brag about, either. Before Trump started making campaign promises the projections of future job growth were about what Trump sold as a miracle waiting for him to make it happen.

The reality is that Trump’s economic performance, measured by his own administration, is merely average.

Given the strong and growing economy he inherited, average is nothing to boast about. And since attaining average has included tariffs that raise the price of some imported goods together with massive increases in federal borrowing the long-term consequences are going to be anything but great and probably not even average.

That suggests a new slogan for Trump’s 2020 campaign: Make America Average Again.

IMAGE: Former President Bill Clinton waves to the delegates as he stands with President Barack Obama after Clinton addressed the Democratic National Convention in Charlotte, N.C., on Wednesday, Sept. 5, 2012. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite)

Poll: Most Parents Oppose Rapid School Reopening

Numerous local school systems around the country are plowing ahead with plans to resume in-person instruction despite growing evidence that children are just as capable of spreading the coronavirus as adults.

Classes were set to begin on Monday in Baker County, Florida. Masks for students will be optional, not required. "It looks like it's back to normal this morning, honestly," a local television reporter observed as parents dropped their kids off in the morning. Many students wore no face coverings.

The Trump administration and the GOP have pushed for full reopening of schools for months."Schools in our country should be opened ASAP," Donald Trump tweeted in May. "Much very good information now available."

"SCHOOLS MUST OPEN IN THE FALL!!!" he reiterated on July 6.

"The science and data is clear: children can be safe in schools this fall, and they must be in school this fall," demanded Rep. Andy Biggs (R-AZ) on Aug. 1.

"I believe our schools can, and should rise to the occasion of re-opening for in-person education this fall," agreed Rep. Andy Harris (R-MD) two days later.

"The CDC and Academy of Pediatrics agree: We can safely get students back in classrooms," tweeted House Minority Whip Steve Scalise (R-LA) last Tuesday.

But while Scalise, Mike Pence, and Secretary of Education Betsy DeVos have all cited the American Academy of Pediatrics in their arguments for reopening, a new study by the group and the Children's Hospital Association raises red flags about how safe that will be.

Their report found 338,982 reported coronavirus cases in children as of July 30 in the United States. Between July 16 and July 30, the nation saw a 40% increase — 97,078 new infected children.

Last week, a high school student in an Atlanta suburb posted a photo online showing few students wearing masks in a crowded school hallway. Since that time, at least six students and three adult employees in the school have reportedly contracted the coronavirus, and the school temporarily has switched to online classes.

Another Georgia school district has already seen at least 13 students and staff members test positive since reopening a week ago.

A recent study in South Korea found that children aged ten and older spread the coronavirus at the same rates adults do. A separate study in Chicago suggested young kids might also be effective spreaders.

These contradict the false claims made by Trump and his administration that kids have an "amazing" near immunity to COVID-19.

"If you look at children, children are almost — and I would almost say definitely, but almost immune from this disease, so few. They've got stronger, hard to believe, and I don't know how you feel about it, but they have much stronger immune systems than we do somehow for this," Trump told Fox News on Wednesday.

"You got to open the schools. They have a stronger immune system even than you have or I have," he told Barstool Sports on July 23. "It's amazing. You look at the percentage, it's a tiny percentage of one percent. And in that one case, I mean, I looked at a couple of cases. If you have diabetes, if you have, you know, problems with something, but the kids are in great shape." Children have made up nearly nine percent of all cases, even with schools mostly closed.

And DeVos incorrectly said in a July 16 interview, "More and more studies show that kids are actually stoppers of the disease and they don't get it and transmit it themselves."

In early July, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention issued guidelines for how schools could operate more safely during the pandemic.

Trump publicly ridiculed the guidelines, dismissing them as "very tough & expensive" and "very impractical."

Published with permission of The American Independent Foundation.