Tag: amazon
Larry Ellison

AI Bubble Near Bursting? When The Financing Gets Crazy, The End May Be In Sight

As the collapse of the housing bubble approached the financing got ever crazier. In 2005, interest-only loans accounted for 23% of all mortgages, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. An interest-only loan may not sound like a good way for people to accumulate equity, but whatever. It gets better.

Subprime loans got all the attention, but they may not have been the biggest tell that things in the mortgage market were out of whack. The category of mortgages known as Alt-A rose to 11 percent of the mortgages issued in 2005. Alt-A are mortgages given to people who ostensibly could qualify for prime mortgages but are unable to provide complete documentation. Typically, Alt-A accounts for two to three percent of mortgages.

The standard story is that they mostly go to small business owners. The generous interpretation is that they can’t fully document the income needed for a prime mortgage because their income fluctuates. The less generous interpretation is that they lie on their taxes so they can’t produce tax returns showing the income they claim.

Regardless of the interpretation, the number of people who fell into this category exploded in the housing bubble years. We can either believe that we had a lot more people with erratic income streams, or we had a lot more people lying on their mortgages. The latter seems more plausible.

The mortgage issuers didn’t care because they knew they could sell pretty much any mortgage they issued to the investment banks. The investment banks didn’t care because they could package the mortgages into mortgage-backed securities (MBS). They could count on investment-grade ratings from the rating agencies, since the banks were paying them for the ratings. Then the investment banks could sell their MBS anywhere in the world.

Anyhow, the explosion of interest-only and Alt-A mortgages presaged the beginning of the end, but it was still more than two years out before the final death march. This should be a warning for all of us hoping for a quick return to sanity, but we keep seeing more crazy in AI financing these days.

Last week Amazon revealed plans to sell off $8 billion in chips to a newly created special purpose vehicle (SPV). Amazon will then lease back the chips from the SPV. This one should raise all sorts of red flags.

This sale/leaseback agreement is essentially a loan to Amazon. They book the sale as current revenue and profit, but then the leasing fees are effectively interest that Amazon is paying to the investors that bought stakes in the SPV. The advantage that this offers Amazon is that the leasing obligations don’t appear as straight debt on its books. In principle, most leasing obligations should count as debt, but Amazon’s accountants may be trying to find a way to avoid this.

Amazon made $135 billion in the year ending on July 1. It is one of the most profitable companies in the world. But it apparently needs to find ways to hide debt on its books. And just to be clear, it costs money to set up this sort of SPV. Everyone involved is getting very nice Wall Street salaries. But Amazon felt this maneuver was better for its finances than just issuing normal bonds.

Oracle also got into innovative leasing in a big way last week, signing a deal with the Chinese tech giant Tencent that leases it $7 billion worth of computing power, with 30 percent supposedly being paid upfront. There are several interesting aspects to this story.

First, the computing power could be coming from top-end Nvidia processors. The Trump administration prohibits the sale of these processors to China, ostensibly to inhibit its ability to develop AI. However, if Chinese companies can simply buy the computing power from these chips from U.S. companies, it would seem to undermine the purpose of the sales ban. But Larry Ellison, the former CEO of Oracle and still head honcho, is a big contributor to Donald Trump, so I guess all is good.

This also raises the question of whether the company has more computing power than it has demand. At a time when Oracle and the other hyperscalers are investing trillions to build data centers, that would be a troubling development for them.

The other question is whether this is a sign of Oracle’s increasingly desperate need for cash. Two weeks ago, Oracle issued a force majeure notice to try to get out of some of its payments on a massive data center it is constructing in New Mexico. It’s not clear that Oracle will have much of a case (such notices usually are issued in response to unforeseeable events like weather disasters or wars), but it does indicate some desperation on its part.

And the desperation is showing up in financial markets. Oracle’s bonds now carry yields well over 8.0 percent, in other words, junk bond territory.

The story with Meta, which recently blew $80 billion on its Metaverse, also doesn’t look very good. It too has massive expansion plans with limited commitments from real buyers.

And it looks like those real buyers could be in short supply. Instead of soaring exponentially, demand for AI from Anthropic seems to be leveling off. Demand for AI from OpenAI looks to be edging downward.

The big money folks weren’t very good in seeing around the corner in the tech bubble, nor in the housing bubble. But they all are singing “this time is different.”

Dean Baker is a senior economist at the Center for Economic and Policy Research and the author of the 2016 book Rigged: How Globalization and the Rules of the Modern Economy Were Structured to Make the Rich Richer. Please consider subscribing to his Substack, from which this is reprinted with permission.

Do Musk's Record-Breaking Losses Signal The AI Bubble Is About To Burst?

Do Musk's Record-Breaking Losses Signal The AI Bubble Is About To Burst?

SpaceX’s stock fell another 7.2 percent last week. At its 115 Friday close, SpaceX was 15.0 percent below its issue price and down more than 45 percent from its peak the following week. Those who got out early did quite well, while those who bought in the week after the IPO probably aren’t feeling too good just now.

Tesla, Musk’s other big company, did even worse last week, shedding 17.8 percent of its value. That corresponds to a loss of $218 billion in market capitalization. With SpaceX losing $116 billion in value, Musk has likely set a record for losing more money in a single week than any person in history.

But it wasn’t just Musk who had a bad week; the hyperscalers also were not doing very well. Alphabet and Amazon both lost 7.8 percent of their value last week. Amazon lost 6.0 percent, while Microsoft’s stock was down 3.0 percent. Apple managed to almost break even, losing just 0.2 percent of its value.

The big factor in these drops is likely the higher than anticipated capital investment the companies seem to be planning. The increase in spending, coupled with the strong performance of the newest Chinese AI releases, makes it more questionable that the hyperscalers will be able to recover their investments.

The slump of the hyperscalers seems at odds with the strong showing of chipmakers last week. To a large extent, this was just reversing their downturn from the previous week. At the end of the day, if the hyperscalers run into trouble, it’s hard to envision a scenario in which the chip makers aren’t also hard hit. They may still be large, profitable companies, but the massive bonanza their investors now seem to envision will not materialize without a serious AI boom.

It’s always difficult to know the extent to which market movements are based in reality. If you want to see a story of how things are likely to end badly for the hyperscalers and their funders, read Ed Zitron’s Substack. (See also my Mostly Economics interview with him.) He examines at some length how the hyperscalers have created special purpose vehicles (remember Enron?) so as to keep data center- related liabilities off their books.

Ed draws a very bleak picture of a massive bubble of debt that cannot possibly be serviced based on plausible revenue projections from the two major AI companies, Anthropic and OpenAI. I’ll throw in that Ed doesn’t even bring Chinese AI into the picture. That seems to me a very big deal, since Chinese AI companies are already eating up a large and growing share of the market. And even insofar as the U.S. AI companies can hold onto a substantial market share, they will be forced to lower their prices to be competitive.

The layers of finance that Ed describes can be confusing. He compares them to the complex derivative instruments that the financial wizards of the subprime era used to ostensibly minimize risk. For those with the time and energy, it’s worth reading through Ed’s story to get the full picture.

But there is a simple shortcut. If the creation of Special Purpose Vehicles is not a way to hide liabilities, why do it? If Meta, Google, Microsoft, and the rest are confident their bets will pay off, why not just keep them on their own balance sheets like any normal investment? Perhaps there is a benign explanation for going through all these financial hoops, and spending a lot of money to do it, but I am not sufficiently sophisticated to imagine what it could be.

One part of this picture that jumped out at me in reading Ed’s account is that the ability to support this web of debt is likely to be highly sensitive to interest rates. The 10-year Treasury rate was hovering near 4.0 percent when Trump and Netanyahu attacked Iran at the end of February. It is now close to 4.7 percent and more likely headed higher than lower if the war escalates. Trump’s latest round of tariffs is also likely to push interest rates higher.

It would be an interesting irony if Trump’s war and his tariffs proved to be the proximate causes of the crash of the AI bubble.

Dean Baker is a senior economist at the Center for Economic and Policy Research and the author of the 2016 book Rigged: How Globalization and the Rules of the Modern Economy Were Structured to Make the Rich Richer. Please consider subscribing to his Substack.


Who Will Benefit From The Latest Version Of Trump RX? Not Most Consumers

Who Will Benefit From The Latest Version Of Trump RX? Not Most Consumers

I’m a relatively healthy 75-year-old man who takes one prescription drug, a generic statin to keep my cholesterol count below the level recommended for preventing heart attacks and strokes. Those levels were recently lowered by the American College of Cardiology and the American Heart Association, which will likely lead many more Americans to be eligible for taking the pills.

Both those facts piqued my curiosity about the announcement made Monday by Donald Trump with Mark Cuban, who runs Cost Plus Drugs, at his side. They were touting adding 602 generic drugs, including statins and blood pressure control meds, to TrumpRx, the government website that directs consumers looking for lower cost drugs to Cuban’s company GoodRx and Amazon Pharmacy.

Who will actually benefit from TrumpRx, I wondered, which is touting mostly generic drugs? And how much will they actually save?

First, I looked up what I could save by buying my generic statin from Cost Plus. Under my Medicare supplemental plan, which comes through my retired wife’s former employer (a public school system), CVS Caremark manages the pharmacy benefit. The PBM requires I pay a $20 co-pay at the pharmacy counter to obtain a 90-day supply of 20-milligram rosuvastatin, the generic name for Crestor.

Cuban’s Cost Plus mail-order website says it would charge me $7.85 for a 90-day supply plus a $5 shipping fee, thus saving me $7.15 for each refill or $28.60 a year. However, Cost Plus also tacks on a $5 pharmacy handling fee. It was unclear from the website if that was part of the $7.85. If not, adding that $20-a-year into the total cost would wipe out most of any savings for me.

I then called CVS Caremark to inquire about their savings should I decide to jump off their plan for those meager savings. I use the phrase “their savings” cautiously. I have no idea if my wife’s former employer or its plan’s medical insurer hires the nation’s second largest PBM, or how much either pays to CVS Caremark. Moreover, how much the PBM profits from the ultimate payer — the taxpayers behind the public employee retirement system — is unknown. So is the price it pays the generic manufacturer and any other middlemen that may have stuck their hands into the honey pot.

In any case, the call center operator told me the total cost to the PBM was $60.86 every 90 days. But that was before I paid $20 every three months at the pharmacy, so the cost reduction for everyone else would be about $164 a year, at least six times more than me. As noted above, how those savings would be divvied up between the PBM, the medical insurer and the employer-payer is safely contained in someone’s black box.

Will it benefit the uninsured?

How about the alleged major beneficiaries of TrumpRx — the uninsured who have to pay for any health care out of their own pockets? Their ranks are growing daily due to this year’s massive increase in rates for Affordable Care Act plans triggered by the regime’s handmaidens in the Republican-run Congress, who allowed the Biden-era increase in plan subsidies to expire.

When ACA-insured, the people dropping plans paid nothing for their cholesterol and blood pressure control medications, even if their plan had deductibles. All preventive services rated “A” or “B” by the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force must be offered free of charge under the ACA. Statins are rated “B.”

But under TrumpRx, those dropping coverage (or those that never had a plan in the first place) will have to pay the full cost. If they turn to Cost Plus Drugs, that would be at least $52 a year with maybe an additional $20 for the pharmacy fee.

Of course, both groups could run into trouble when renewing their prescriptions if they no longer have or never had a primary care physician. When signing up for Cost Plus Drugs, which I did today, I had to provide the name and contact information for my prescribing physician.

Even if they can get past that hurdle, people who are uninsured are usually pinching pennies. They no longer have a primary care physician. They don’t go in for routine checkups, which might identify when they have high blood pressure or dangerously elevated cholesterol. They are less likely to adhere to diets with less salt and less processed foods, which promote better heart health.

The ACA had it right. Drugs that have been proven to prevent serious diseases should be entirely free of charge to the consumer/patient. They are a wise investment that pays off in reduced hospitalizations and reduced complications from chronic diseases, which in turn reduces long-term health care costs. Plans like my supplemental should eliminate their co-pays entirely for such drugs, especially when they are generics like most statins and blood pressure meds.

TrumpRx sets up a financial barrier to access. It will decrease the population taking these important interventions. It is a public relations stunt designed to look like the regime is doing something about the high cost of drugs, which is entirely driven by the cost of new drugs coming to market and the high prices on those that remain on patent, not the extra fees PBMs tack onto prices.

Paying for value

One final thought: The regime is stepping up its pressure on European countries to raise their drug prices, which are substantially less than what is paid in the U.S. Why? Other advanced industrial countries are effective drug price negotiators. They refuse to pay more than the carefully calculated medical value of a prescription.

The U.S., on the other hand, insists that foreigners pay their “fair share” for innovation instead of using the same negotiating and value measurement tactics. Big Pharma’s argument — that the high cost of drugs is driven by the high cost of research and development — never held much water and has grown increasingly shallow given how much innovation has moved to China in the wake of the regime’s immigration policies and gutting of National Institutes of Health funding.

This Trump regime’s attempt to impose so-called reference pricing is, in essence, a strategy to maintain as much revenue as possible flowing to Big Pharma. It provides no long-term brake on rising costs. The U.S. would pay slightly less; other industrialized countries would pay slightly more; less developed countries would continue to go without the latest therapeutics; and the drug industry would maintain the status quo on profitability.

Merrill Goozner, the former editor of Modern Healthcare, writes about health care and politics at GoozNews.substack.com, where this column first appeared. Please consider subscribing to support his work.

Reprinted with permission from Gooz News


The Media's Rich Owners Want Generations To Fight Each Other -- Not Classes

The Media's Rich Owners Want Generations To Fight Each Other -- Not Classes

The idea of generational warfare is pernicious tripe. It gets pushed endlessly in the media because rich people would rather see kids lashing out at their parents than at them. And since the rich own the media, we hear a lot about generational inequality. Jeff Bezos’ Washington Post gave us the latest effort at generational warmongering.

Just to give some basic facts that are not in dispute, the country is getting richer year by year. Using the projections from the Social Security Trustees, per capital income is projected to be 15.4 percent higher in 2035, 32.6 percent higher in 2045, and 54.3 percent higher in 2055, when virtually all the baby boomers will be dead.

Since the baby boomers are for the most part not going to be partaking in these higher levels of consumption, who do the generational warriors think will be getting this income? It’s worth mentioning that these could prove to be very conservative projections of income growth. If AI has anywhere near the impact its proponents are claiming, per capita income will grow by far more than the Social Security trustees are projecting.

Given the indisputable fact that the country is getting richer, how can there be a story where Gen Xers, Millennials, and Gen Zers will be poorer on average than baby boomers? There is a story where generations can do worse through time, but that would be a story of within-generation inequality, not between-generations inequality.

The problem is not greedy boomers, but rather ridiculously rich people like Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos, and Mark Zuckerberg hoarding the country’s wealth for their own use and the use of their heirs. People are less likely to see that story because these super-rich people are the ones who own the major media outlets and social media platforms, but that is reality.

Given these simple and undeniable facts, it is striking how often we see this generational inequality nonsense. As is the case with this Post piece, they often push outright lies to make their case. For example, this piece tells readers:

“’Baby boomers “entered the labor force during decades of strong economic growth, rising productivity and relatively high real wages,’ Mitchell said. They were in their prime earning and saving years during long bull markets, namely in the 1980s and ’90s, she said, as well as the economic recovery that followed the Great Recession.” ….

“And ‘particularly for middle-income workers, real wage gains since the 2000s have been modest, compared to the robust wage growth that boomers benefited from mid-career,’ Mitchell said.” [Prof. Olivia Mitchell, who teaches business economics and public policy at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School.]

“Post-World War II, ‘you had this tremendous boom that many got to ride for a very long period of time,’ Ney said.” [Jeremy Ney, a professor at Columbia University’s business school.]

This turns reality on its head. As I wrote in a piece last month:

“There was in fact a golden age, but it predated the entry of most boomers into the labor market. The economy experienced a period of low unemployment and rapid real wage growth, which was widely shared, from 1947 to 1973. At the endpoint of this boom period, the oldest boomers were 27, and the youngest were 9.

“After 1973, the economy took a sharp turn for the worst. The most immediate cause was the Arab oil embargo, which sent oil prices soaring. The economy at that time was far more dependent on oil than is the case today. Soaring oil prices sent inflation higher, which prompted the Fed to bring on severe recessions, first in 74-75 and then again in 1980-82.

“The full story is more complicated and highly contested, but what happened to the economy is not. We had a period of far higher unemployment and stagnant real wage growth that lasted until the mid-1990s. The median real wage in 1996 was actually 4.4 percent lower than it had been in 1973.

“The average unemployment rate for people between the ages of 20-24 over the years 1973 to 1988 (when the last boomer hit 24) was 11.3 percent. By comparison, it averaged 7.2 percent over the last decade, although it has been rising rapidly in 2025.”

After stagnating for two decades, the median real wage has been rising modestly for the last three decades.

Finally, the piece includes this inadvertently damning comment for the argument it is trying to push on readers.

“’In 1940 there was a 90 percent chance that you were going to earn more than your parents. To somebody born today, it is just a coin flip,’ Ney said.”

Since average income has risen consistently over the last seventy years and is universally projected to continue to rise (barring a climate disaster), the only reason why most workers won’t earn more than their parents would be a further rise in inequality. In other words, more money going to people like Washington Post owner Jeff Bezos and less money going to ordinary workers.

If there is not a further increase in inequality, then most workers in ten or twenty years will be earning considerably more than do workers today. That is irrefutable logic, which apparently has no place in the Washington Post.

Dean Baker is a senior economist at the Center for Economic and Policy Research and the author of the 2016 book Rigged: How Globalization and the Rules of the Modern Economy Were Structured to Make the Rich Richer. Please consider subscribing to his Substack.

Reprinted with permission from Dean Baker.



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