Texas Republicans are once again sounding alarm bells about the state’s U.S. Senate seat, saying that if Republicans nominate state Attorney General Ken Paxton in the May 26 primary runoff, it will create a drag on the entire Texas GOP ticket.
A polling memo commissioned by a super PAC backing Republican Sen. John Cornyn in the runoff said that nominating Paxton would be catastrophic, potentially costing Republicans the Senate seat, multiple House races, and possibly even control of the state House.
“A Paxton nomination creates measurable risk across every tier of the Texas ballot,” said the memo, which was obtained by Texas Tribune reporter Gabby Birenbaum. “The Senate race tightens significantly. Congressional pickup opportunities close. Republican-held seats that should be safe require active defense. And the Texas House majority—which took years to build—faces exposure it would not face with Cornyn at the top of the ticket.”
Among the poll’s findings is that the gerrymander Trump forced Republicans to undertake—which was supposed to net the GOP five U.S. House seats—could collapse if Paxton were the nominee.
The memo highlights four prospective GOP flips, saying, “With Paxton at the top of the ticket, all four opportunities effectively disappear. The drag is consistent across every key voter group—independents, suburban women, soft Republicans—and large enough to turn each district from a competitive opportunity into a likely Democratic hold.”
What’s more, the memo says that Paxton would jeopardize otherwise safe GOP House seats, including that of now-former Rep. Tony Gonzales and GOP Rep. Beth Van Duyne. The survey finds that suburban, independent, and Hispanic voters would likely turn away from the party in droves.
“The damage does not stop at lost opportunities. Redistricting produced several Republican-held congressional districts that should be safe holds under any normal electoral environment. With Cornyn at the top of the ticket, they are—comfortable margins, no defensive spending required, resources free for offensive races. Under a Paxton nomination, many of these seats become a problem,” the memo said, though it overstates Cornyn’s benefit to those seats, many of which are still competitive even if he is the nominee.
The Cornyn-supporting super PAC released the memo a little more than two weeks before the May 26 runoff in a desperate attempt to build support for Cornyn’s flailing candidacy.
The most recent public poll, commissioned by the University of Houston’s Hobby School of Public Affairs, found Paxton leading Cornyn, 48 percent to 45 percent.
However, the same survey found that electability arguments don’t seem to be working. When asked which Republican would be the strongest opponent to Democratic nominee James Talarico, GOP primary voters were split, with 43% saying Cornyn and 43% saying Paxton.
Cornyn, for his part, had been frantically trying to secure Trump’s endorsement, changing long-held positions and heaping embarrassing amounts of praise on Trump. And right after the initial primary, it seemed Trump was finally going to get off the sidelines and endorse Cornyn, according to reports at the time. But Trump has so far reneged on his pledge to make an endorsement.
It’s possible Cornyn’s supporters hope this memo scares Trump into backing Cornyn
In the process, though, they released a memo that shows Texas is competitive even if Cornyn is the nominee.
The poll showed Cornyn up only two points over a “generic Democrat” in the race, while Paxton trailed by four points. (Of course, Talarico is far from generic.) It also showed Democrats holding onto two of the gerrymandered U.S. House seats even with Cornyn atop the ticket.
Ultimately, the midterms will prove brutal for Trump and Republicans—whether or not Paxton is the Texas Senate nominee.
Reprinted with permission from Daily Kos
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