Mary Peltola
Democrats’ odds of taking control of the Senate just got even better, with The University of Virginia Center for Politics Sabato’s Crystal Ball flipping three races blue.
According to the new ratings, North Carolina’s open Senate race is now projected to flip into Democrats’ hands, with the contest now rated “Lean Democratic.”
And the Senate contests in Alaska and Ohio—states that President Donald Trump carried by 13 points and 11 points, respectively—are now rated “toss-ups.”
“As we reassess the Senate playing field with a little less than five months to go until the November election, three Senate ratings move in Democrats’ favor today, and there are now enough toss-up races to give Democrats a clearer path to winning the Senate majority,” Sabato’s Crystal Ball declared.
Republicans are on shaky ground in all three of those states because Democrats not only nominated strong challengers who have won statewide races before, but Trump’s popularity is now underwater—even in states that he carried in 2016, 2020, and 2024.
Apparently, even die-hard Republicans in red states aren’t fans of Trump saying that “I love the inflation” and that he doesn’t care about Americans’ financial situations.
“If both [Alaska’s former Rep. Mary] Peltola and [Ohio’s former Sen. Sherrod] Brown could come reasonably close in 2024 as Trump was carrying their states by double digits, doesn’t it seem plausible that both have a reasonable chance to win in what should be a much better political environment than 2024 was?” wrote Sabato’s Crystal Ball.
It continued, “Meanwhile, [Alaska’s GOP Sen. Dan] Sullivan and [Ohio’s GOP Sen. Jon] Husted would probably be fine in most years against most opponents, but this may not be most years, and Peltola and Brown are not most opponents.”
The changes came the same day as a new poll from Emerson College, showing Democrats growing their lead on the generic ballot—which asks voters what party they want to see in control of Congress after the next election—to a stunning ten points.
That double-digit margin is higher than the eight-point lead Emerson clocked Democrats at in October 2018—right before Democrats went on to regain control of the House by 8.4 points.
Republicans clearly know that they’re in trouble.
According to Politico, “People close to the president are concerned about Ohio and Sen. Jon Husted’s political team, and there is consternation about whether they’re up to the task.”
And Semafor’s Burgess Everett reported on Tuesday that Republican senators were shown polling that made the races look “bleak” and “challenging” for their party.
Meanwhile, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer is confident in Democrats’ chances.
“We are poised to take back the Senate. We needed multiple paths. No one thought Iowa or Texas would be part of the path—but it is,” he told Punchbowl News Thursday, comparing this year’s midterms to 2006, when Democrats won control of Congress amid backlash to then-President George W. Bush’s unpopular wars.
Schumer added, “It’s almost as if Trump wants to deliberately sabotage the Senate Republicans.”
Reprinted with permission from Daily Kos
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