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Monday, December 09, 2019 {{ new Date().getDay() }}

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi

Reprinted with permission from Alternet

President Donald Trump, during one of his MAGA events in September, predicted that Republicans will retake the U.S. House of Representatives this year. But according to a new analysis by polling expert Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight, that possibility is most unlikely. Released on October 7, "FiveThirtyEight's 2020 House of Representatives Election Forecast" says that Democrats have a 92-97 percewnt chance of maintaining their House majority in November — and it is possible that they will even expand it slightly.

FiveThirtyEight's Nathaniel Rakich explains, "While Democrats are slight favorites to flip the Senate and Joe Biden is a solid-but-not-overwhelming frontrunner for the presidency, Democrats have between a 92 and 97 percent chance of keeping control of the House."

Rakich goes on to say that there are "three versions" of FiveThirtyEight's House model: a "lite version," a "classic version" and a "deluxe version." The "lite version," according to Rakich, "relies primarily on polling" and "gives Democrats a 97 in 100 chance of" keeping their House majority — while the "classic version…. blends polls with fundamentals like partisanship, incumbency advantages and candidates' fundraising" and "gives Democrats a 93 in 100 chance" of doing that. And the "deluxe version," Rakich adds, "incorporates polls, fundamentals and expert ratings from the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections and Sabato's Crystal Ball" and "gives Democrats a 93 in 100 chance of" maintaining control of the House.

"All three versions more or less agree, though, that Democrats will essentially stand pat in the House or pick up a few extra seats," Rakich explains. "That's an impressive achievement considering the heights they reached in the 2018 midterms, when they scored a 235-199 majority despite a congressional map that favored the GOP."

Rakich doesn't use the word "gerrymandering" in his FiveThirtyEight article, but it's a word that is certainly applicable when it comes to the House. Democrats enjoyed a major blue wave when they retook the House in 2018 and enjoyed a net gain of 40 seats, but many pundits have argued that the blue wave would have been even bigger had the GOP not gerrymandered so many House districts.

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Texas Gov. Greg Abbott

Reprinted with permission from AlterNet

When COVID-19 was overwhelming New York City hospitals during the 2020 spring, a silly talking point in right-wing media was that residents of red states didn't need to worry about the pandemic because it only posed a threat to Democratic areas. But COVID-19, just as health experts predicted, found its way to red states in a brutal way. And the current COVID-19 surge is especially severe in red states that have lower vaccination rates. Journalist David Leonhardt, in an article published by the New York Times this week, examines a disturbing pattern: red states where residents are more likely to be anti-vaxxers and more likely to be infected with COVID-19 and die from it.

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Gov. Doug Ducey with Senate President Karen Fann and former President Donald Trump

The Republican-led Arizona election audit found that President Joe Biden actually won by a slightly wider margin than initially reported, but Trump supporters are still demanding that the election results be overturned.

In fact, according to Tucson.com, the demands have increased since the audit results were made public. Arizona's Republican Gov. Doug Ducey reportedly received approximately 300 emails a day on Saturday and Sunday demanding that he decertify the state's results for the 2020 presidential election.

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