Whether presented in ALL CAPS on social media, following the style of Donald Trump, or bellowed aloud with blustering smacks on a lectern by Pete Hegseth, the White House proclamations of “victory” in the war against Iran have no weight or credibility. By any sane measure, Trump’s misadventure has turned into a debacle that may ultimately rank with Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan in the annals of great power arrogance.

The early hours of the chaotic “ceasefire” hailed by Trump are proving that the consequences of this particular disaster will be difficult to mitigate. On the first day of the two-week cessation of hostilities -- announced by the president on Tuesday after dropping his threat of genocidal war crimes – the Iranians celebrated their own declared victory by launching fresh drone and missile attacks on Israel, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, while the Israeli Defense Forces again struck Lebanese civilian targets, killing hundreds more. What Vice President JD Vance called a “fragile truce” appears to be no truce at all.

But whether the ceasefire holds for two weeks or not, it is simply untrue that this conflict has enhanced the security of the United States and its allies or substantially diminished the threat posed by Iran. The latest US intelligence reports indicate that, contrary to Hegseth’s claims, massive bombing by American and Israeli forces have reduced the Iranian air war arsenal by half at most – which is why Teheran can still launch fiery strikes at its neighbors and maintain military control over the Strait of Hormuz.

Indeed, Iran’s assertion of authority over the strait – a new dispensation that enriches the Islamic regime and extends its power – will allow them to rebuild whatever they have lost over the past two months. That enormous new source of revenue dwarfs the amount awarded to the regime for signing the 2015 deal restricting its nuclear program and will no doubt finance its eventual renewal.

Going forward, Iran will force ships passing through the strait to pay the equivalent of $1 per barrel of oil during the two-week ceasefire with the U.S, an Iranian official told the Financial Times. These tolls must be paid in cryptocurrency, highlighting the true value of blockchain currency as a means to advance banditry while evading sanctions, taxes, and international law enforcement. Ludicrously, Trump has bleated his hope for a “joint venture” with Iran to impose tolls on tankers crossing the strait.

As we contemplate the ruinous outcome of Trump’s decision to junk Barack Obama’s Iran deal and join Benjamin Netanyahu’s fantasy crusade for “regime change,” it is worth glancing back to assess his stupid, feckless and deceptive conduct. Once again, this president has demonstrated his unfitness for the office he holds or any position of public responsibility.

How things have changed in the weeks since Trump initiated the attack with his usual bombast.

"There will be no deal with Iran except UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER” he declared in a March 6 post on Truth Social, one week after bombing began. Following the anticipated capitulation, he additionally demanded “the selection of a GREAT & ACCEPTABLE Leader(s)” to run the country, under his personal control. “It’s going to work very easily,” the delusional president told CNN around that time. “It’s going to work just like Venezuela.”

It didn’t work at all like Venezuela. Iran remains under the dictatorship of Islamist mullahs and their army of thugs, with no prospect of change. And while any ceasefire is far better than the conflagration of war, Trump and his stooges have achieved none of the objectives they so loudly proclaimed when the bombing commenced. In terms of American security objectives, the situation is plainly worse -- with the United States missile arsenal depleted, a global economy weakened by rising energy costs, and a disunited NATO facing a strengthened axis of Iran, Russia, and China.

"War is peace, freedom is slavery, ignorance is strength,” as the authorities broadcasted in Orwell's 1984. And today, on his own propaganda channels, Donald Trump assures us of his “total and complete victory.”

Joe Conason is founder and editor-in-chief of The National Memo. He is also editor-at-large of Type Investigations, a nonprofit investigative reporting organization formerly known as The Investigative Fund. His latest book is The Longest Con: How Grifters, Swindlers and Frauds Hijacked American Conservatism (St. Martin's Press, 2024). The paperback version, with a new Afterword, is now available wherever books are sold.