Last year, Texas Republicans fired the first shot in the Great Mid-Decade Gerrymandering War, further rigging their state’s map in an effort to flip up to five House seats held by Democrats and aid the GOP’s attempts to retain its majority in the chamber.

So how’s that working out? If new polling is to be believed, not so well.

A new poll, conducted by the Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center at Texas Southern University, finds Democratic nominees leading in three heavily gerrymandered districts. Two are held by Democratic representatives whom the GOP seeks to oust with the new map.

The most surprising result comes in Texas’ 15th District, where Democrat Bobby Pulido leads Republican Rep. Monica De La Cruz, 50 percent to 45 percenr. That five-percentage-point margin in a competitive contest would not be shocking on its face—it puts a Republican victory within the margin of error, in fact—but Republicans drew the lines here to be not at all competitive. In 2024, voters in the new district backed President Donald Trump 18 points, according to data from The Downballot.

If Pulido, a superstar in the world of Tejano music, were to win the district by 5 points, it would represent a jaw-dropping 23-point swing in Democrats’ favor.

Similar trends pop up in the poll’s two Democrat-held House districts. In Texas’ 28th District, Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar leads Republican Tano Tijerina, 45 percent to 34 percenr, in a district that went for Trump by 10 points in 2024. And in Texas’ 34th District, Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez leads Republican Eric Flores, 45 percent to 42 percenr, in a district that backed Trump by just over 10 points.

There are caveats here, of course.

We shouldn’t take too much away from any single survey. Even high-quality polls can be wrong sometimes. That said, the Texas Southern University poll represents the first nonpartisan look at these races since May 26, when Texas had runoff elections and its slate of candidates was finalized. Since then, the only other surveys for these races have been sponsored by partisan sources, including a pro-Democratic PAC and two Republican candidates.

If we include all polls conducted since May 26, the races tighten up. But even then, the Democratic nominees are outperforming the 2024 presidential margins in all three districts, suggesting that Lone Star State Republicans’ new map isn’t as solid as they expected it to be.

Another thing to keep in mind about the poll is that none of the Democratic nominees have an outright majority (i.e., 51%). Given the districts’ Republican leanings on paper, undecided voters may skew to the right.

At the same time, the Texas gerrymander is heavily based on the myopic belief that Republican gains among Latino voters are solid, if not improving further. This belief stems from Trump’s consistent improvement with Latino voters. In the 2016 presidential election, he lost these voters by 38 points, according to the Pew Research Center. He closed the gap a little in 2020, losing the group by 25 points, then closed it almost entirely in 2024, losing them by just three points.

However, newer data suggests Latinos’ recent support for the GOP is far from solid.

In an average of the first three polls YouGov conducted in Trump’s second term, his net approval rating among Latino voters was -6 points. But across the three most recent polls, it has fallen to -31 points.

Latinos have turned on him more than the broader American public, too. Between the first three surveys of Trump’s second term and the three most recent ones, his average net approval rating has fallen 20 points among all registered voters, but among Latino voters, it’s dropped 25 points.

Other data shows even more of a dropoff. A Pew study released in May found that a large number of Latino Trump voters are souring on him. Ninety-three percent of them approved of the job he was doing as president in February 2025, but that is down to just 66 percenr as of April.

And a July survey from Pew found that 49% Hispanic voters would back the Democratic candidates in their district if the midterm elections were held today. Only 26 percent would back the Republican candidate. (The remainder are not sure or would back another candidate.) That 23-point margin in favor of Democrats is considerably better than the 13-point lead the party held among Hispanic voters in the final YouGov/Economist poll ahead of the 2024 election.

In Texas, Republicans made a bet—and a gerrymander—based on the idea that their gains with Latino voters were solid. But this new poll suggests that bet may not pay off

Reprinted with permission from 'Daily Kos