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Texas GOP Fail? New Polls Show Democrats Lead In Gerrymandered Seats

Last year, Texas Republicans fired the first shot in the Great Mid-Decade Gerrymandering War, further rigging their state’s map in an effort to flip up to five House seats held by Democrats and aid the GOP’s attempts to retain its majority in the chamber.

So how’s that working out? If new polling is to be believed, not so well.

A new poll, conducted by the Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center at Texas Southern University, finds Democratic nominees leading in three heavily gerrymandered districts. Two are held by Democratic representatives whom the GOP seeks to oust with the new map.

The most surprising result comes in Texas’ 15th District, where Democrat Bobby Pulido leads Republican Rep. Monica De La Cruz, 50 percent to 45 percenr. That five-percentage-point margin in a competitive contest would not be shocking on its face—it puts a Republican victory within the margin of error, in fact—but Republicans drew the lines here to be not at all competitive. In 2024, voters in the new district backed President Donald Trump 18 points, according to data from The Downballot.

If Pulido, a superstar in the world of Tejano music, were to win the district by 5 points, it would represent a jaw-dropping 23-point swing in Democrats’ favor.

Similar trends pop up in the poll’s two Democrat-held House districts. In Texas’ 28th District, Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar leads Republican Tano Tijerina, 45 percent to 34 percenr, in a district that went for Trump by 10 points in 2024. And in Texas’ 34th District, Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez leads Republican Eric Flores, 45 percent to 42 percenr, in a district that backed Trump by just over 10 points.

There are caveats here, of course.

We shouldn’t take too much away from any single survey. Even high-quality polls can be wrong sometimes. That said, the Texas Southern University poll represents the first nonpartisan look at these races since May 26, when Texas had runoff elections and its slate of candidates was finalized. Since then, the only other surveys for these races have been sponsored by partisan sources, including a pro-Democratic PAC and two Republican candidates.

If we include all polls conducted since May 26, the races tighten up. But even then, the Democratic nominees are outperforming the 2024 presidential margins in all three districts, suggesting that Lone Star State Republicans’ new map isn’t as solid as they expected it to be.

Another thing to keep in mind about the poll is that none of the Democratic nominees have an outright majority (i.e., 51%). Given the districts’ Republican leanings on paper, undecided voters may skew to the right.

At the same time, the Texas gerrymander is heavily based on the myopic belief that Republican gains among Latino voters are solid, if not improving further. This belief stems from Trump’s consistent improvement with Latino voters. In the 2016 presidential election, he lost these voters by 38 points, according to the Pew Research Center. He closed the gap a little in 2020, losing the group by 25 points, then closed it almost entirely in 2024, losing them by just three points.

However, newer data suggests Latinos’ recent support for the GOP is far from solid.

In an average of the first three polls YouGov conducted in Trump’s second term, his net approval rating among Latino voters was -6 points. But across the three most recent polls, it has fallen to -31 points.

Latinos have turned on him more than the broader American public, too. Between the first three surveys of Trump’s second term and the three most recent ones, his average net approval rating has fallen 20 points among all registered voters, but among Latino voters, it’s dropped 25 points.

Other data shows even more of a dropoff. A Pew study released in May found that a large number of Latino Trump voters are souring on him. Ninety-three percent of them approved of the job he was doing as president in February 2025, but that is down to just 66 percenr as of April.

And a July survey from Pew found that 49% Hispanic voters would back the Democratic candidates in their district if the midterm elections were held today. Only 26 percent would back the Republican candidate. (The remainder are not sure or would back another candidate.) That 23-point margin in favor of Democrats is considerably better than the 13-point lead the party held among Hispanic voters in the final YouGov/Economist poll ahead of the 2024 election.

In Texas, Republicans made a bet—and a gerrymander—based on the idea that their gains with Latino voters were solid. But this new poll suggests that bet may not pay off

Reprinted with permission from 'Daily Kos

Polling Memo Warns Paxton Nomination Could Sink Texas GOP In November

Texas Republicans are once again sounding alarm bells about the state’s U.S. Senate seat, saying that if Republicans nominate state Attorney General Ken Paxton in the May 26 primary runoff, it will create a drag on the entire Texas GOP ticket.

A polling memo commissioned by a super PAC backing Republican Sen. John Cornyn in the runoff said that nominating Paxton would be catastrophic, potentially costing Republicans the Senate seat, multiple House races, and possibly even control of the state House.

“A Paxton nomination creates measurable risk across every tier of the Texas ballot,” said the memo, which was obtained by Texas Tribune reporter Gabby Birenbaum. “The Senate race tightens significantly. Congressional pickup opportunities close. Republican-held seats that should be safe require active defense. And the Texas House majority—which took years to build—faces exposure it would not face with Cornyn at the top of the ticket.”

Among the poll’s findings is that the gerrymander Trump forced Republicans to undertake—which was supposed to net the GOP five U.S. House seats—could collapse if Paxton were the nominee.

The memo highlights four prospective GOP flips, saying, “With Paxton at the top of the ticket, all four opportunities effectively disappear. The drag is consistent across every key voter group—independents, suburban women, soft Republicans—and large enough to turn each district from a competitive opportunity into a likely Democratic hold.”

What’s more, the memo says that Paxton would jeopardize otherwise safe GOP House seats, including that of now-former Rep. Tony Gonzales and GOP Rep. Beth Van Duyne. The survey finds that suburban, independent, and Hispanic voters would likely turn away from the party in droves.

“The damage does not stop at lost opportunities. Redistricting produced several Republican-held congressional districts that should be safe holds under any normal electoral environment. With Cornyn at the top of the ticket, they are—comfortable margins, no defensive spending required, resources free for offensive races. Under a Paxton nomination, many of these seats become a problem,” the memo said, though it overstates Cornyn’s benefit to those seats, many of which are still competitive even if he is the nominee.

The Cornyn-supporting super PAC released the memo a little more than two weeks before the May 26 runoff in a desperate attempt to build support for Cornyn’s flailing candidacy.

The most recent public poll, commissioned by the University of Houston’s Hobby School of Public Affairs, found Paxton leading Cornyn, 48 percent to 45 percent.

However, the same survey found that electability arguments don’t seem to be working. When asked which Republican would be the strongest opponent to Democratic nominee James Talarico, GOP primary voters were split, with 43% saying Cornyn and 43% saying Paxton.

Cornyn, for his part, had been frantically trying to secure Trump’s endorsement, changing long-held positions and heaping embarrassing amounts of praise on Trump. And right after the initial primary, it seemed Trump was finally going to get off the sidelines and endorse Cornyn, according to reports at the time. But Trump has so far reneged on his pledge to make an endorsement.

It’s possible Cornyn’s supporters hope this memo scares Trump into backing Cornyn

In the process, though, they released a memo that shows Texas is competitive even if Cornyn is the nominee.

The poll showed Cornyn up only two points over a “generic Democrat” in the race, while Paxton trailed by four points. (Of course, Talarico is far from generic.) It also showed Democrats holding onto two of the gerrymandered U.S. House seats even with Cornyn atop the ticket.

Ultimately, the midterms will prove brutal for Trump and Republicans—whether or not Paxton is the Texas Senate nominee.

Reprinted with permission from Daily Kos

Rejecting Trump's Hypocritical Plea, Voters Approve Virginia Redistricting

In one of the nation’s final redistricting battles before the November midterm elections, Virginia voters decided on Tuesday to allow Democrats to redraw the state’s House map to give their party a plus.

With the passage of the referendum, voters opted to empower Virginia’s Democratic-led legislature to create a congressional map that leaves the state with just one safe Republican district. Prior to the Tuesday vote, Virginia’s 11-member House delegation consists of six Democrats and five Republicans, but this will likely change if court decisions fail to stop it.

Virginians voted "yes" to approve the new temporary map by 51.5 percent to 48.5 percent, according to a Washington Post analysis with nearly all the ballots counted. After millions of dollars in spending by both sides, roughly 44 percent of the electorate voted -- an impressive turnout for a special election. Last November's gubernatorial election had a turnout of 55 percent.

“Unfortunately, we’ve been pushed into the position where two wrongs will make a right, and as Democrats, we simply can’t come to a boxing match when the person brings a knife,” one voter told MS NOW.

The decision followed in the aftermath of President Donald Trump demanding Texas Republicans push a mid-decade gerrymandering effort to erase Democrat districts and give Trump an advantage in the House. Trump began pushing the effort last year as polling began to reveal voters would punish Republicans in the 2026 mid-terms for Republicans’ congressional behavior.

But that effort appeared to backfire as Democrats retaliated by enacting extreme anti-Republican gerrymanders of their own in blue states.“MAGA is having a rough day. They have just entered the “find out” stage after they f—— around,” said one X user on social media.

The New York Times reports Democrats spent heavily on the Virginia election. But opinion polls said voters appeared split in the days leading up to the final vote.

Republicans like former senator John McCain’s daughter Meghan McCain demanded “If you live in Virginia, remember to vote NO on the communist takeover of elections today,” on X, although she made no reference to Republican gerrymandering efforts in red states in her post.Other MAGA X social users appeared to hit a shrill tone as Virginia marched to the polls.

“Democrats are trying to steal 4 seats in the House by redrawing Virginia's map. GET OUT AND VOTE NO!’ posted one X account, also without referencing similar GOP efforts in red states.

Reprinted with permission from Atternet

Virginia Redistricting: The Case For Democratic Gerrymandering

Virginia is for lovers—of democracy.

On Tuesday, Virginians will vote on whether to temporarily suspend the state’s bipartisan redistricting commission and allow Democrats to redraw its congressional map. Polls suggest the ballot measure will pass. And if that happens, Republicans would likely lose four House seats, leaving them with just one of the state’s 11. That makes for just nine percent of seats in a state where the GOP regularly wins about 44 percent of the statewide popular vote.

Put simply, Virginia will go from having a very fair map to a very biased one. So how is that good for democracy? Because Republicans have rigged maps across the country for decades, skewing the House’s overall partisan makeup, and Virginia’s proposed map would be merely a minor corrective.

In general, congressional delegations tend to be biased in Republicans’ favor. Among states with at least five House seats, there are five where Republicans regularly receive less than 50 percent of the statewide vote but hold a majority of that state’s House delegation: Arizona, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

There is not one state where the same is true for Democrats.

Most House maps are skewed to benefit Republicans

The difference between the Republican Party's share of a state's current House seats and the party's average share of that state's vote in recent statewide elections, among states with at least five seats

Statewide elections used in the average include the 2016, 2020, and 2024 presidential elections, as well as the state's most recent Senate election and gubernatorial election. Special elections are excluded. For states with ranked choice voting, the most recent election with a Republican and a Democrat in the final round of voting is used.Table: Andrew ManganSource: Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections; House of Representatives/Created with Datawrapper

The worst offender may be Wisconsin. Republicans hold 75 percent of the Badger State’s House districts but have won an average of just 48 percent of the vote in the state’s past three presidential elections and its most recent Senate race and gubernatorial race. At least in Virginia, Democrats routinely win a majority of the statewide vote.

Wisconsin’s skewed map is the result of more than a decade of Republican graft, and its effects have been especially egregious in years when Democrats have scored sizable statewide victories. In 2012, then-President Barack Obama won the state by seven percentage points, and Democrat Tammy Baldwin won her Senate race by nearly six points, but the Democratic Party picked up only three of the state’s eight House seats. In the other five districts, every Republican won their race by more than 11 points, showing that Democrats never stood a chance there.

The GOP is proud of their electoral manipulation—and they want to do more of it. In 2022, Republican gubernatorial candidate Tim Michels said at a campaign event, “Republicans will never lose another election in Wisconsin after I’m elected governor.” (Luckily, he lost to Democratic Gov. Tony Evers.)

North Carolina is a stranger case. Republicans hold 10 of 14 House seats, or 71 percent, despite pulling in only 48 percent of the vote in recent statewide elections. The thing is, until very recently, the Tar Heel State had a fair map.

Ahead of the 2022 midterms, the North Carolina Supreme Court ruled that the state’s map violated the law, and forced the adoption of a court-drawn map that resulted in an even split: seven Republicans, seven Democrats. A fair and honest map, no doubt. However, that fall, conservatives won a majority on that court, allowing the Republican-led state legislature to ram through a gerrymander that advantaged them in 10 House seats. And last year, the legislature made the map worse, likely stealing another seat from Democrats this November.

Which brings us back to Old Dominion.

Throughout the past year, GOP-led states took on the highly unusual project of mid-decade redistricting. North Carolina, Ohio, Missouri, and Texas all passed maps that are expected to tear a total of nine seats away from Democrats. But redrawn maps in California and Utah (on a judge’s order) should give Democrats six other seats. Virginia’s proposed map, if it goes into effect, would likely bring that up to 10.

This would render President Donald Trump’s midterm-stealing project a wash.

Mid-decade redistricting has produced incredibly skewed maps

The difference between the Republican Party's project share of a state's House districts and the party's average share of that state's vote in recent statewide elections, among states that completed mid-decade redistricting, plus Virginia

State	House seats	Projected GOP seats	Projected GOP share of seats	GOP's avg. statewide vote	New map's skew
North Carolina	14	11	78.6%	48.2%	R+30.3
Missouri	8	7	87.5%	57.2%	R+30.3
Ohio	15	12	80.0%	54.3%	R+25.7
Texas	38	30	78.9%	53.6%	R+25.4
Utah	4	3	75.0%	55.1%	R+19.9
California	52	4	7.7%	37.2%	D+29.5
Virginia*	11	1	9.1%	44.4%	D+35.3

* Virginia's map is not in effect. The projections on this table are based on a proposed map, which may go into effect only if voters approve a ballot measure on April 21, 2026.

That is, unless Florida also redistricts. Gov. Ron DeSantis has set a special session to begin on April 28, in which the legislature will consider further tilting the state’s gerrymander against Democrats. The GOP could draw a map to flip up to five Democratic-held seats. The trouble is, such a move would risk watering down red districts too much, which could backfire in a wave election, leading Democrats to win seats they otherwise would not. As such, state Republicans have been hesitant to act.

Whatever transpires, the Sunshine State’s map is already heavily biased. Republicans control 71 percent of its House districts but win only 54 percent of the statewide vote on average.

Of course, Democrats gerrymander too. Massachusetts and Connecticut have a combined 14 House seats, and Republicans hold not one seat in either, though their party regularly wins at least a third of the statewide vote. (The reverse is true in Oklahoma, where the GOP holds all five House seats, despite the fact that it wins just 63 percent of the statewide vote on average.)

The big difference is that only one party—the Democratic Party—is pushing to eliminate partisan gerrymandering altogether.

In March 2019, the House’s freshly minted Democratic majority passed the For the People Act. The bill sought to ban partisan gerrymandering nationwide, in addition to expanding voting rights and curtailing the influence of money in politics. Democrats saw these as their top priorities, bestowing the bill the honor of “H.R. 1,” which means it was the first introduced in the new session of Congress. No Republicans voted for it, and the Republican-controlled Senate refused to even bring it up for a vote.

The bill passed a Democratic-controlled House again, in 2021. Again, it was the party’s H.R. 1, and again, no House Republicans voted for it. Democrats ran the Senate that year but lacked the 60 votes necessary to pass it there.

Joe Manchin, at the time a Democratic senator from West Virginia, persuaded the party to dilute the bill in an effort to get bipartisan backing. The new bill, named the Freedom to Vote Act, would have implemented some voter-ID requirements but would have nevertheless expanded drastically ballot access and ended partisan gerrymandering. When it came up for a vote in the Senate, not one Republican supported it.

Democrats in the House and Senate have continued to introduce the Freedom to Vote Act in subsequent sessions of Congress, but with at least one chamber in the GOP’s hands following the 2022 midterms, it’s gone nowhere.

And it’s not as if the public is divided on the issue. Only nine percent of Americans think partisan gerrymandering should be legal, according to a YouGov poll from August. For context, that’s on par with the amount who believe that Bigfoot “definitely” exists.

Partisan gerrymandering is overwhelmingly unpopular

The share of U.S. adult citizens who think partisan gerrymandering should be legal or illegal

Survey conducted Aug. 1-3, 2025, among 1,116 U.S. adult citizens, with a margin of error of ±4 percentage points. Figures may not total 100% due to rounding.Chart: Andrew ManganSource: YouGov/Created with Datawrapper

Americans hate map-rigging, no matter the reason. The poll also finds that only 1 in 3 Americans says it is fair for states to gerrymander in response to other states doing it—i.e., what Virginia is doing this year.

It makes sense, too. Gerrymandering is deeply unfair at the state level. If Virginia allows Democrats to redraw the state map, Republican voters there will have a weaker voice in Congress than they would in a fair world.

But this is not a fair world. National Democrats are trying to give Americans the fair House elections they want, and Republicans are stopping it. Until gerrymandering is banned across the country, Democrats should make full use of the tools they have at their disposal.

Reprinted with permission from Daily Kos

Any updates?

Trump certainly sees China as our enemy, but Americans are warming to the nation. The Pew Research Center finds that 27% of Americans have a favorable view of China, up from a low of 14% in 2023. Funny thing is, that share has risen while the share that thinks Trump can capably deal with China has fallen. Sixty percent of Americans are not confident he can make good decisions regarding China, up from 49% in June 2024.
As the Trump administration lends a helping hand to our worst polluters, Americans are more negative than ever on the quality of the environment. Just 35% of Americans rate the quality of the environment in the U.S. as good or excellent, per Gallup. Who knew that aiding polluters would make our air and water worse?

Vibe check

As America becomes a hellscape, it makes sense people might turn toward God. What is surprising, though, is how abruptly that has happened with one group that’s typically the least religious: young men.

A new survey from Gallup finds that 42% of men ages 18 to 29 rate religion as “very important” to their lives, up from 28% in the previous round of polling. Those figures reflect two-year-averages, with the new share dating to 2024-2025 and the older share to 2022-2023.

It also marks the highest level of religiosity among young men since 2000-2001 (43%).

Historically, young women have been much more religious than young men. In the 13 rounds of data released by Gallup, young women have led young men 11 times. And their lead has often been quite large. In 2002-2003, young women were 16 points more religious than young men. And on average across all years, they’ve led men by 9 points.

Notably, young women continue their slide in religiosity. The latest round of data shows just 29% consider religion very important to them, a figure that’s tied with 2020-2021 for their all-time low.

The 14-point jump among young men also marks the largest increase between data periods among any age group of men and women. The closest change came among men ages 65 and older, whose religiosity fell 13 points between 2008-2009 and 2010-2011.

Turns out, all those Christ-fluencers on TikTok really are winning converts.

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The share of U.S. adult citizens who think partisan gerrymandering should be legal or illegal

Should be legalNot sureShould be illegalAll U.S. adult citizens9%22%69%Democrats7%13%80%Independents6%24%69%Republicans14%29%57%Survey conducted Aug. 1-3, 2025, among 1,116 U.S. adult citizens, with a margin of error of ±4 percentage points. Figures may not total 100% due to rounding.Chart: Andrew ManganSource: YouGovCreated with Datawrapper

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Most House maps are skewed to benefit Republicans

Mid-decade redistricting has produced incredibly skewed maps

Partisan gerrymandering is overwhelmingly unpopular

Any updates?

Vibe check

Daily Kos relies on small donations to make ends meet

Was this story worth reading?

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