President Donald Trump
It’s difficult to put into words just how bad things have to get in this polarized political climate for a president to reach 30 percent approval. To get that low it means you’re losing ground not just with the opposing party and independents but also with your own party.
Chart by Andrew Mangan with data from American Research GroupCreated with Datawrapper
And that’s what’s happening for Trump, whose approval is sliding with Republicans, who typically blindly support whatever he does but are frustrated with the war in Iran and its negative impact on gas and other prices.
American Research Group’s poll found Trump’s approval among Republicans has fallen to 67 percent — a 12-percentage-point drop from the pollster’s June 2025 survey.
Once you start losing support from your base, it’s a massive problem for members of your party, especially in a midterm election year like 2026 when the only way to voice disapproval in Trump is to punish Republicans in office.
If the GOP voting base is not motivated to vote, this midterm election will turn from bad to catastrophic, with Republican elected officials and candidates alike falling even in areas Trump carried in 2024.
Indeed, nonpartisan political handicappers are starting to move races in otherwise safe Republican territory into the competitive column, as Trump’s approval is dragging down the GOP.
“Despite recent Republican wins on redistricting, Democrats remain in a strong position to regain control of the House, with the battlefield continuing to shift in their favor as the political environment further deteriorates for the GOP,” Erin Covey, a House editor at the Cook Political Report, wrote Friday in a post explaining why her outlet shifted seven race ratings toward Democrats.
There are also a number of tangible signs that Republicans are not motivated and could cost the GOP this fall.
A Washington Post analysis published Monday found Democrats are vastly outvoting Republicans in primaries across the country, even in areas where Democrats don’t have competitive races on their ballots.
According to the analysis, people have thus far cast 12.6 million ballots in Democratic House primaries, while only 8.6 million votes have been cast in Republican House primaries—a statistic experts say is a sign of Democratic enthusiasm.
Even worse for Republicans is that more Democrats turned out in a number of House primaries in seats the GOP corruptly gerrymandered to try to rig the midterms in their favor. For example, Democrats outvoted Republicans in the primaries in three of the five seats the GOP redrew in Texas at the behest of Trump himself, The Washington Post found.
“Something would really fundamentally have to change in a way that would favor the Republicans to change the dynamics that we’re seeing right now,” Michael McDonald, political science professor at the University of Florida and an expert on voter turnout, told the Post.
It’s difficult to see how things could fundamentally change to benefit Republicans given that Trump cannot get out of his own way.
Look at the news from just this week. It’s focused on the boondoggle of a “renovation” Trump attempted at the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool, in Washington, D.C. Barely a week after the pool was refilled, it’s plagued with algae, and the new coat of “American flag blue” paint is peeling away. Rather than admit failure, Trump is having people arrested as he ridiculously blames “vandals” for his own personal failure.
November is quickly approaching, and it’s not going to be pretty for Trump and the GOP.
Reprinted with permission from Daily Kos
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