Sen. John Thune
Republicans have expressed fears both publicly and privately that their congressional majorities are in serious danger in November, as voters angry with President Donald Trump’s war in Iran and the fact that it’s making life even more unaffordable in the United States threaten to punish the GOP at the ballot box.
But now they have moved on from merely talking about those fears to taking concrete steps that make it clear they know their prospects are dire and that they are on track to lose control of not just the House but the Senate, too.
On Tuesday, Senate Majority Leader John Thune said he is taking steps to ensure that Republicans will be ready to replace Supreme Court justice Samuel Alito should he choose to retire this summer, giving a little hint-hint to the 76-year-old with a lifetime appointment who was recently hospitalized with an unspecified illness.
“That’s a contingency I think around here you always have to be prepared for. And if that were to happen, yes, we would be prepared to confirm,” Thune told a reporter from the Washington Examiner.
Even Trump himself brought up the possibility of Alito, as well as famously corrupt Justice Clarence Thomas, retiring before the midterms, telling Fox Business’ Maria Bartiromo on Tuesday that the late Ruth Bader Ginsburg made a mistake by not retiring earlier because he got to fill her seat on the nation’s highest court.
“She decided that she was going to live forever, and about two minutes after the election, she went out, and I got to appoint somebody,” Trump told Bartiromo, in what sounded like yet another nudge at Alito and Thomas.
Indeed, pushing out an aging Supreme Court justice before the midterms is a massive tell that Republicans are worried they will lose the Senate majority, and thus their ability to confirm Trump’s judicial nominees. (It’s also wildly hypocritical, as now-former Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell stole a Supreme Court seat by claiming the vacancy came too close to an election, but I digress.)
Back in January, political analyst Jacob Rubashkin, deputy editor of the nonpartisan political handicapping outlet Inside Elections, said that this very situation would be a tell that Republicans were scared of losing the Senate.
“We’re still a ways away from this so keep it saved in your bookmarks, but one way we will know if Republicans become truly concerned about losing the Senate is if there’s chatter or even pressure on Thomas and/or Alito to retire this summer,” Rubashkin wrote in a post on January 6.
Welp …
Meanwhile on Tuesday, Punchbowl News reported that Florida GOP Gov. Ron DeSantis is getting cold feet about rigging—uh, sorry, redrawing -- his state’s congressional map.
While the Trump lackey was previously bullish that Republicans could extract as many as five more House seats in the state, DeSantis is now worried that the midterm environment—including shifts in Florida—will be so bad for Republicans that creating more nominally Republican seats could actually backfire. Spreading out GOP voters could turn Florida’s map into a dummymander—a political term that means an intended gerrymander actually winds up benefitting the other party.
What’s more, Republicans are sending Vice President JD Vance to campaign in Iowa, yet another sign that this otherwise reliably Republican area is slipping away from the GOP as Trump’s tariffs and war in Iran decimate the agricultural backbone of the state. Iowa was also the first state Trump himself traveled to on his midterm campaign tour.If Republicans are having to campaign in a state Trump carried by double digits in 2024, they are in some serious doo doo this fall.
Of course, sending Vance to campaign for vulnerable Republicans is likely not the best idea, as he’s not only unpopular but has also turned out to be bad luck for other candidates he’s stumped for.
Yet desperate times call for desperate measures.
So the midterms are shaping up to be a disaster for the GOP? Good.
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