Rep. Scott Perry
Punchbowl News reported that Republicans are broadly resigned to losses in California’s 48th District, Iowa’s 1st District, Nebraska’s 2nd District, New Jersey’s 7th District, and Pennsylvania’s 7th District—all GOP-held seats that in a neutral environment would be highly competitive.
“Nearly every senior Republican and Democrat involved in 2026 believes these five R seats are all but lost,” Punchbowl News co-founder Jake Sherman wrote in a post on X.
Three of those contests (CA-48, NE-02, and NJ-07) are currently rated as “Lean Democratic” races by the Cook Political Report, while Iowa’s 1st and Pennsylvania’s 7th are still in the “toss-up” category. Given that even Republicans say they are the underdogs in these seats, it suggests that the political handicapping organizations are slower to react to the electoral landscape and thus their current ratings may not reflect the true peril the GOP is in.
What’s more, Punchbowl reported that a handful of other districts are also close to being cooked. They include:
- Pennsylvania’s 10th District, held by Republican Rep. Scott Perry, a key player in Trump’s corrupt and illegal efforts to steal the 2020 election.
- Arizona’s 6th District, a seat Trump carried by less than 1 point in 2024 and which is held by GOP Rep. Juan Ciscomani.
- Iowa’s 3rd District, a seat Trump won by more than 4 points in 2024 but where Trump’s negative impact on farming communities is putting Republican Rep. Zach Nunn in serious peril.
- Ohio’s 7th District, where GOP Rep. Max Miller‘s disturbing domestic-violence allegations threaten to cost Republicans what should be an easily winnable seat.
Punchbowl said these four seats “are growing more difficult for Republicans but still within reach.” It’s why even the typically gun-shy race-rating groups have declared that it’s “almost impossible” for Republicans to keep control of the House.
Indeed, Republicans’ political situation is so dire that many in the party are downright despondent, shocked at how their party went from riding a high in November 2024 to now bracing for the kind of blue wave that could take down GOP lawmakers in seats Trump won by double-digit margins.
Independent journalist Tara Palmeri said one unnamed Trump ally told her the following at Trump’s midterm convention in Texas three weeks ago: “It’s going to be a tsunami. Total wipe out. Anyone saying we’re going to hold the Senate, that’s not going to happen. They’re delusional. Get ready for impeachment. Everyone needs a lawyer now.”
Another anonymous Republican operative told her this at an event during the two-day convention event: “What are we doing here? We’re all going to lose. … We’ve known this is all over for two months. It’s over. I guess we’re just supposed to party until then?”
Personally, I’ve been covering political campaigns and elections for 14 years now, and I have never seen one side more freaked out about what they are seeing than Republicans are right now. The fact that GOP operatives are this miserable and admitting that they are about to get their asses handed to them is, for lack of a better word, stunning.
Republicans’ collective freakout suggests their internal polling matches how bad the public polls are for their party.
As of Wednesday afternoon, Democrats currently hold an 8.8-percentage-point lead on the generic ballot, according to election analyst Nate Silver’s polling average.
Chart by Andrew Mangan/Source: Silver Bulletin/Created with Datawrapper
“A D +8.5 generic ballot (likely bigger among likely voters) would produce a very blue map,” Nate Silver wrote Monday in a post on X.
Ultimately, Republicans are in this position because of Trump’s idiotic tariffs and boondoggle of a war in Iran—two economically disastrous policies that the cowardly Republican Party refused to stop.
Trump’s tariffs helped spike inflation, while his war has caused gas prices to surge. And both are squeezing Americans financially, with a growing number of Trump’s own voters saying they regret their votes.
Given that gas prices are unlikely to meaningfully drop before early voting starts, Republicans are in a massive amount of trouble. It’s no wonder they are panicking.
Reprinted with permission from Daily Kos
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