Tag: midterm polls
Is MAGA Inc. Panicking Over Midterm Polls -- Or Just Trying To Scare Donors?

Is MAGA Inc. Panicking Over Midterm Polls -- Or Just Trying To Scare Donors?

A new fundraising email to his MAGA faithful has exposed President Donald Trump, according to a new breakdown from The i Paper, revealing how much he is "panicking" about their support.

Writing for the outlet on Sunday, veteran D.C. correspondent Simon Marks argued that Trump "knows he is in trouble" as the midterms creep closer, citing "one of his final fundraising pitches to supporters," which featured "a picture of the MAGA leader boarding a train and waving goodbye from a railway station’s platform."

"In just 1 week, we might have to say goodbye to each other forever,” the email pleaded. “Do not make me say goodbye... [On] day 1, Democrats will file the Articles of Impeachment against me for the THIRD TIME. But this time they will have the votes – the votes to lock me out of the White House and throw away the key.”

As Marks argued, however, "nothing in that fundraising plea is true," noting, first and foremost, that Democrats largely remain "skittish" about the prospect of going after Trump with another impeachment effort, due to the two-thirds vote that would be needed in the Senate to actually remove him from office.

"Not even the most optimistic of Democratic strategists believes that the party will come close to that kind of landslide electoral outcome on 3 November – election day," Marks explained.

He added later: "There is no evidence that Trump writes any of these emails himself. But they reflect a last-ditch Republican effort to get out the vote in the midterms by intimating that his presidency might end if Trump’s loyal grassroots supporters sit on their hands and stay home. It also comes after recent campaign appearances by the President for Republican candidates in traditionally red states including Texas, Kansas and Ohio, an acknowledgement of serious fears that they could be ousted even in these Republican strongholds."

Another similar email recently warned Trump supporters that a Democratic Congress would "reverse everything I’ve done to Make America Great Again over the past two years," another dubious claim that falls apart in the face of reality.

"In reality, the Democrats would be constrained in power, even if they win majorities in both houses of Congress," Marks added. "Trump, as President, will retain veto powers over any legislation they send to his desk, and it is highly unlikely that enough Republicans in the House and Senate would turn against him to provide the two-thirds majority needed in both chambers to override their use."

He concluded: "The President himself is already offering a preview of what his presidency might look like after the votes are counted next month. His threat to launch intensive fresh air strikes on Iran could be the first chapter of his post-midterm presidency, and an indicator of his determination more broadly to go for broke. Unless, of course, his fundraising email is trying to tell us all something, and he really does have a train ticket to convey him out of Washington in his breast pocket."

Reprinted with permission from AlterNet

James Talarico

Even Republican Pollsters Now See A Blue Wave On Midterm Horizon

As polls turn further toward Democrats ahead of November’s midterm elections, one might expect Republican pollsters to try to cut against that narrative and release some data to put a damper on all this blue-wave talk. But so far, they generally aren’t doing that.

A spate of new surveys from GOP-affiliated pollsters show Democrats well positioned across key Senate races.

In Texas’ Senate contest, two Republican polls show Democratic nominee James Talarico ahead of Republican nominee Ken Paxton. One from InsiderAdvantage shows Talarico up two points, while another, from SoCal Strategies, has him leading Paxton by five points.

One InsiderAdvantage poll even shows a close race in South Carolina’s Senate race: Democratic nominee Annie Andrews trails Republican Sen. Darline Graham by just two points. That is remarkable for a state that President Donald Trump won in 2024 by 18 points, and where no Democratic Senate nominee has lost by less than 9.6 points since the 1990s.

Notably, the only nonpartisan poll released since the start of July, from Abacus Data, showed Graham ahead of Andrews by 13 points.


Trafalgar Group, a GOP pollster infamous for its opaque methodology, finds the Democratic Senate candidates ahead in Michigan (D+2), North Carolina (D+6), and Georgia (D+7). All of those results are roughly in line with those from nonpartisan firms, despite Trafalgar having a track record of bias toward Republican candidates.

Iowa is also up for grabs, according to Cygnal’s new poll, which was sponsored by a right-wing group called Iowans for Tax Relief Foundation. The survey finds Democrat Josh Turek and Republican Ashley Hinson tied at 43 percent, though they don’t advertise that data in the sponsor’s press release. You have to look at the poll’s full PDF to find it.

The largest difference between nonpartisan and GOP pollsters comes in Kansas. A new poll from Emerson College shockingly found Democrat Adam Hamilton leading Republican Sen. Roger Marshall by 2 points, 45 percent to 43 percent. Meanwhile, GOP-aligned pollster co/efficient finds Marshall up five points over Hamilton. However, even if co/efficient’s result is borne out in November, it would represent a massive underperformance from Marshall. The Sunflower State hasn’t had a Democratic senator since 1932, and since 1980, Republican Senate candidates there have won by 33 points on average.

To take control of the Senate, Democrats need to pick up four seats on net. The best route runs through defending their competitive seats in Michigan, Georgia, and New Hampshire, then flipping four Republican-held seats, such as those in North Carolina, Ohio, Texas, or elsewhere.

If the November results exactly follow the recent polling from Republican firms, then Democrats would pick up three Senate seats on net this year—not enough to take the majority, yet a result that was hard to fathom roughly two years ago. (The Maine Senate race is tied in the one GOP-aligned poll released since July. If that seat flipped as well, it would give Democrats a majority.)


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