Tag: productivity
First-Quarter Productivity Decline Is A Grim Economic Portent

First-Quarter Productivity Decline Is A Grim Economic Portent

The Bureau of Labor Statistics today released its first estimate of productivity in the first quarter. It showed productivity falling at a 0.8 percent annual rate. This is really bad news.

Productivity matters a lot for both inflation and living standards. In the five years from 2019 to 2024, productivity growth averaged 1.9 percent annually. That is up from 1.1 percent annually in the decade before the pandemic.

The faster rate of productivity growth most immediately translates into lower inflation. As a first approximation, inflation will be equal to nominal wage growth minus productivity growth. If nominal wages are growing at a 4.0 percent annual rate, and productivity is rising at a 1.9 percent annual rate, inflation will be roughly 2.1 percent. (We could have some redistribution from profits to wages, reversing the rise in profit shares in the pandemic, but we’ll leave that one for another time.)

To take the other side of the same coin, real wages can sustainably increase at the rate of productivity growth. The 1.9 percent rate of productivity growth meant that real wages could rise at roughly a 1.9 percent annual rate. By contrast, the 1.1 percent rate for the decade before the pandemic could only support a 1.1 percent annual rate of real wage growth. Over the course of a decade that’s the difference between a 20 percent rise in real wages and an 11 percent rise.

For these reasons, the productivity slowdown reported for the first quarter is a big deal. Having said this, it is necessary to throw out two important caveats about the first quarter productivity data.

First these data are subject to revisions. Both the numerator or this equation (output) and the denominator (hours) will be revised in subsequent months. When we have the data in June, after two rounds of revisions, the picture may look very different.

The other important caveat is that productivity data are notoriously erratic. For example, productivity shrank at a 2.4 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2015. It rose at a 1.7 percent annual rate in the first quarter of 2016. Reversals like this are very common. This means that even if the first quarter weakness holds up through revisions to the data, it is entirely possible that we see a sharp reversal in the second quarter or the second half of 2025.

First and foremost, the negative productivity growth reported for the first quarter should be seen a warning. We have pursued a number of policies that are likely to do both near-term and lasting damage to the economy. Tariffs, mass deportations, reckless layoffs in the federal government, and slashing research budgets, are all likely to hurt economic growth. Much of the impact will only be seen over the long term, but some may already be showing up in the data.

For example, if ships from China are not coming due to 145 percent tariffs, we will see fewer workers unloading goods, at the ports, fewer truck drivers transporting goods, and before long, empty shelves at the stores. The firings at the federal level, coupled with layoffs elsewhere due to cutbacks of federal support, could show up in higher unemployment rates.

The fall in productivity reported for the first quarter should be taken as a flashing yellow. Maybe all will be okay, but it’s not a good start.

Dean Baker is an economist, author, and co-founder of the Center for Economic Policy and Research. His writing has appeared in many major publications, including The Atlantic, The Washington Post, and The Financial Times. Please consider subscribing to his Substack Dean Baker.

Reprinted with permission from Substack.

Discover A More Productive Self With This Bundle Of Tips And Tricks

Discover A More Productive Self With This Bundle Of Tips And Tricks

There are only 24 hours in a day… no really, we checked. With more than half of that time taken up with sleeping, eating, traveling and other mundanities, you’ve really only got a handful of hours a day to truly get things done.

Make that precious window of time as fruitful as possible with the teachings of the Ultimate Productivity Bundle, which you can pick up right now for just $36 in The National Memo Store.

As opposed to courses and instruction that work on simply life or work production, this package of eight classes aim to improve how you spend your time in all aspects of your life.

You can start with courses and informative life lessons that help you approach life with added purpose, creating and establishing goals as well as motivating yourself to take those initial steps (How To Find Your Life Purpose & Maximize Your Impact27 Life-Changing Lessons From the Smartest People in History, and Get Things Done: How to Organize Your Life & Take Action).

From there, you can work on becoming a speed reader (Become A Speed Reading Machine: Read 300 Books This Year), boosting more much information you can retain in even less reading time than you’re spending now. Then you can tackle strategies for boosting your productivity (How To Double Your Productivity By Tomorrow Morning: 12 Step Guide), improving your time management (Make More, Work Less: Time Management + Productivity Course) and being a more efficient you at work (Entrepreneur Productivity Hacks).

You’ll even have a public speaking course so you effectively communicate all your successes and get others on a similarly productive track (Instant Public Speaking Master Class).

These courses usually cost almost $1,300, but with this limited time offer, you can get your whole life running like a Swiss watch for only $36.

This sponsored post is brought to you by StackCommerce. 

The World’s Biggest Mac App Bundle Will Pump Your Mac Up

The World’s Biggest Mac App Bundle Will Pump Your Mac Up

The app world throws an unprecedented amount of new product at users every day. If you’ve got a Mac, you can choose from tons of new system optimization, productivity and entertainment apps — but with so much unveiled so quickly, it’s tough to know which ones are actually worth your time and hard drive space.

Thankfully, The National Memo Store wants to help you out, by introducing you to the World’s Biggest Mac App Bundle, which you can get now at any price you want to pay.

By paying any total at all, you automatically get two cool Mac apps: the search tool supercharger Tembo and the drag-and-drop navigation optimizer Dropzone 3.

Both programs are great starts, but if you beat the average paid by other shoppers like you, you’ll get another 13 apps that’ll trick out your system in a ton of new ways.

You’ll get file recovery software Data Rescue 4, quick app launcher CrossOver 16, data organization solution Paragon Hard Disk Manager, classic strategy game Civilization V, app firewall protector Radio Silence, system efficiency expert MacPilot 9 and souped-up calculator app Soulver.

But as the old ads used to say, that’s not all. You’ll also receive PhotoBulk to edit images, Movavi Mac Cleaner to scrap unnecessary files, Mac Blu-ray Player Pro for your media needs, MacX DVD Ripper Pro for converting DVDs and Caboodle 2 to organize information. The bundle also includes a course on unlocking some of the hidden gem programs that are already in your Mac’s El Capitan and Sierra operating software.

The total retail price of all these apps is over $600, but this limited time package gets you all this Mac goodness at a fraction of the price.

This sponsored post is brought to you by StackCommerce.

5 Apps to Boost Your Productivity

5 Apps to Boost Your Productivity

We’re all hunting for ways to be more productive. While some tech tools and upgrades can help us speed up our workflows, some can sadly confuse us or even slow us down. Today, we’re separating the useless from the useful, and sharing five great apps for getting more done in the most efficient way possible.

MarginNote Pro for Mac

Technology has moved far beyond the point where a pen and paper will cut it for note-taking at work. However, staying organized in the vast abyss of a computer can certainly be challenging. MarginNote Pro makes organized note-taking easy for Mac users. Easily highlight text, write down notes, insert multimedia audio and video, and outline study points as you go about your work. You’ll organize your notes and absorb the information along the way.

Buy Now: It’s available now for just $24.99, 50% off its regular price.

Aeon Timeline 2 for Mac & Windows

Hitting deadlines is essential in business. Aeon Timeline 2 makes sure you’re on top of every deadline and budget constraint within every project. From setting signposts to managing results to making sure all groups are hitting deadlines, this intuitive interface will help you lay out and execute any project to meet your customizable standard. Spend less time going back and forth between notes and teams, and more time tracking your progress.

Buy Now: Usually $50, you can get this app right now at only $22.99.

DeltaWalker 2 Pro

If you’re constantly losing the most recent version of your work or scrambling through files, this app will change your entire day. With DeltaWalker 2 Pro, you’ll be confident all your files are the most recent, most accurate versions. DeltaWalker assesses all your text, checks for changes or discrepancies, then allows you to standardize and organize all your information so everything’s correct and in its proper place.

Buy now: Versions are available for Windows or Mac users, both at $29.95, half off retail.

PDFConverterOCR 4: Lifetime License

PDFs can be finicky or even impossible to edit, and can easily become huge roadblocks in your day. PDFConverterOCR allows you to scan and convert PDFs into Word, Excel or one of several popular document formats so you can make any changes you need. It even recreates characters with almost 100% accuracy, even with encrypted PDFs.

Buy now: Take 60% off the regular price with a lifetime of access for only $19.99.

Bizplan Premium: Lifetime Subscription

Put your best business foot forward with the Bizplan Premium software. Follow Bizplan’s step-by-step builder to generate a clean, effective business plan that’ll attract investor and customer interests in your project. Focus on the individual pieces needed to get your business off the ground, then fine-tune and track your progress as you grow. Bizplan will focus you in on what matters so you’re not wasting time on the unimportant.

Buy now: Get your business headed for success for just $69 (over 90% off its nearly $3,000 price tag).

This sponsored post is brought to you by StackCommerce.

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