CNN data analyst Harry Enten reports Democrats are enjoying a rare double-digit lead ahead of the midterms that is all but guaranteeing them control of the House after November.
“Take a look at party identification — those who identify as Democrats or Republicans — and look at the margin that Democrats have now versus where it was a year ago,” said Enten, referring to young adults in the "Gen Z" cohort between the ages of 18 and 29. “It goes from plus six points in 2024 to plus 20 points [in 2025].”
Enten said this is the generation that’s becoming a bigger size of the electorate with each year, and they are moving not just away from the Republican party but specially away from President Donald Trump.
“This is not just about party identification,” said Enten. “I mean, look at the hard results on the ground. Look at Trump's net approval rating among Generation Z and compare it where we were at the beginning of 2025.”
In 2024, Trump had Generation Z’s approval by plus ten points, and had made gains among Generation Z going from 2020 to 2024.
“Now he is 32 points underwater,” said Enten. “That is a 42-point swing in less than a year. So, what we're seeing in party identification isn't just staying there. It's moving over and affecting how Generation Z feels about the president himself.”
“It's a stampede,” said CNN host Erin Burnett. “It's a tsunami!”
“It’s huge,” agreed Enten, “but I'll tell you something you don't know: Why is party ID so important? I mentioned that Democrats gained amongst them overall on party ID. If in fact their lead, which they currently have, holds until the midterm election — I went back and looked at every single midterm election since 1982, when Democrats hold the lead on party identification, they go on, in fact, to gain House seats.”
“They only need to gain a few house seats in order to gain control,” said Enten. “So, at this point, the Democrats lead on party identification bode very, very well for the midterm elections 100 percent of the time since 1982.”
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