Tag: gop presidential nomination
Ted Cruz Might Not Need Trump Supporters

Ted Cruz Might Not Need Trump Supporters

By Nathan L. Gonzales, CQ-Roll Call (TNS)

WASHINGTON—Texas Sen. Ted Cruz is poised to absorb Donald Trump’s supporters when the billionaire exits the race for the GOP presidential nomination, according to one of the campaign’s most common narratives. But how many Trump supporters are open to supporting another candidate?

The quickest analysis of the Republican race divides candidates into distinct establishment and anti-establishment lanes, including lumping Trump, Cruz, and Ben Carson supporters together as a monolithic force that is interchangeable between the candidates.

Unsurprisingly, the situation is more complicated.

Trump and Cruz have found success in Republican race by railing against the Republican establishment and there is a tendency to couple their fates because of their outsider message. But part of Trump’s appeal is his personality and profile, as evidenced by a December CNN piece, “Trump supporters’ second choice? Trump.”

“There isn’t anybody else,” 47-year-old Sean Hadley told CNN at a Trump rally in Des Moines, Iowa. “Everybody else is bought and paid for, no matter what party.” Trump supporter Ernie Martin also said he didn’t have a second choice because he didn’t trust any of the alternatives because “they’re all connected to Washington.”

Cruz might be able to attract some Trump supporters with his rhetoric and policy positions, but he can’t change who he is — a sitting senator, a politician — and who he is not — a successful businessman and celebrity.

In some big ways, Cruz is not identical to Trump — a larger than life candidate who people hope can bring about change and fix what’s broken in the country through sheer force of personality, as Yahoo’s Jon Ward wrote after spending time talking with Trump supporters in line for a rally last month.

Of course, that evidence is anecdotal, but not necessarily irrelevant. And Trump’s support in the polls is undeniable, as is the possibility that he leaves the race before winning the nomination. But identifying precisely how many Trump supporters are amenable to Cruz is challenging.

“We are fighting to be their second choice,” one Cruz ally told Roll Call about Trump supporters. “We have a majority of his second choice voters. If he does drop, we, by a majority, are the beneficiary.”

A mid-December automated poll of Iowa Republican primary voters by Public Policy Polling, a Democratic company, backed up that assertion and showed that 36 percent of Trump supporters said Cruz was their second choice. Carson was second with 14 percent while none of the other candidates cracked double digits. Another 14 percent said they were “undecided” on the second choice question.

But, even though Trump outpaced Cruz 28 percent to 25 percent on the primary ballot in that PPP survey, a potentially more important question is whether Cruz needs Trump supporters at all.

According to the Cruz loyalist, the Texas senator is well-positioned in Iowa on Feb. 1 in a lower turnout scenario that includes Republicans who have participated in previous caucuses, without any current Trump supporters.

For example, a December poll by Selzer & Co. for The Des Moines Register showed Cruz with a 31 percent to 21 percent advantage over Trump in the Hawkeye State, followed by the rest of the field.

But Trump performs better in higher turnout scenarios when the pool of participants includes Republicans who have rarely or never participated in a caucus before, and thus deemed unlikely to vote.

“If turnout is up a little bit, we like where we are,” according to the Cruz source. “If it’s up a lot, it starts to get much stronger for Trump.”

Part of that confidence stems from Cruz’s effort (and not just Trump’s) to attract Republicans who haven’t previously been involved. The Carson campaign is appealing to casual Republicans as well.

Of course, the race in Iowa, and subsequent states, will come down to turnout, including Trump’s ability to get those infrequent or new Republicans out to vote.

“We still have a significant number of voters that are unlikely to turnout,” said the Cruz supporter. “He just has more of them than we do.”

©2016 CQ-Roll Call, Inc., All Rights Reserved. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.

Photo: Republican U.S. presidential candidates businessman Donald Trump (L) and Senator Ted Cruz (R) pose together before the start of the Republican presidential debate in Las Vegas, Nevada December 15, 2015. REUTERS/David Becker 

 

Tea Party Dominating Republican Presidential Primary

BERLIN, N.H. (AP) — Bulling its way into 2012, the Tea Party is shaping the race for the GOP presidential nomination as candidates parrot the movement’s language and promote its agenda while jostling to win its favor.

That’s much to the delight of Democrats who are working to paint the Tea Party and the eventual Republican nominee as extreme.

“The Tea Party isn’t a diversion from mainstream Republican thought. It is within mainstream Republican thought,” Mitt Romney told a New Hampshire newspaper recently, defending the activists he’s done little to woo, until now.

The former Massachusetts governor is starting to court them more aggressively as polls suggest he’s being hurt by weak support within the movement, whose members generally favor rivals such as Texas Gov. Rick Perry and Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann.

Romney’s shift is the latest evidence of the big imprint the Tea Party is leaving on the race.

Such overtures come with risks, given that more Americans are cooling to the Tea Party’s unyielding tactics and bare-bones vision of the federal government.

After Washington’s debt showdown this summer, an Associated Press-GfK poll found that 46 percent of adults had an unfavorable view of the Tea Party, compared with 36 percent just after last November’s election.

It could give President Barack Obama and his Democrats an opening should the Republican nominee be closely aligned with the Tea Party.

Yet even as the public begins to sour on the movement, Romney and other GOP candidates are shrugging off past Tea Party disagreements to avoid upsetting activists.

That includes Perry, who faced a Tea Party challenger in his most recent election for governor and who has irked some Tea Party-ers so much that they are openly trying to undercut his candidacy. Instead of fighting back, Perry often praises the Tea Party.

In his book “Fed Up!” Perry wrote: “We are seeing an energetic and important push by the American people — led in part by the Tea Party movement — to give the boot to the old-guard Washington establishment who no longer represent us.”

There’s a reason for the coziness. Voters who will choose the GOP nominee identify closely with the movement.

A recent AP-GfK survey showed that 56 percent of Republicans and GOP-leaning people identified themselves as Tea Party supporters. Also, Republicans who back the Tea Party place a higher priority than other Republicans on the budget deficit and taxes, issues at the center of the nomination contest.

Last year, the Tea Party injected the GOP with a huge dose of enthusiasm, helping it reclaim the House and end one-party rule in Washington. These days, they are firing up the campaign trail in early-voting Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina.

It’s little wonder, then, why many of the White House aspirants are popping up at rallies by the Tea Party Express, a Sacramento, Calif.-based political committee that’s in the midst of a 30-city bus tour. That tour ends Sept. 12 in Tampa, Fla., where the group will team with CNN to sponsor a nationally televised GOP debate. Every Republican candidate faring strongly in the polls is set to participate.

Some grass-roots activists will cringe. They consider the Tea Party Express uncomfortably close to the GOP establishment. Nonetheless, “it’s a moment of political arrival” for the Tea Party, says Bruce Cain, a University of California, Berkeley political scientist.

Five months before the first voting in the nomination fight, a Gallup survey of Republicans and GOP-leaning independents last week found Perry pulling strong support from voters who identify themselves as Tea Party supporters, with 35 percent, followed by Romney and Bachmann at 14 percent.

That may help explain why Romney decided to speak Sunday at a Tea Party Express rally in New Hampshire and appear Monday at a forum in South Carolina hosted by GOP Sen. Jim DeMint, who oversees a political committee that has supported Tea Party candidates.

DeMint said the Tea Party is “one of the best things that’s happened to our country and to politics, because there’s a broad cross-section of Americans involved in citizen activism today. And some are called Tea Party; some are not.”

Rather than anointing any candidate, DeMint said Sunday on ABC’s “This Week” that he’s looking to see which one “really catches the attention and inspires the average American, who has gotten involved with politics and the political process.”

Perry, Bachmann and others in the 2012 planned to appear at DeMint’s event.

Some Tea Party groups plan to protest Romney’s appearances. They are irked that as governor, he signed a bill that enacted a health program mandating insurance coverage. It served as a precursor to Obama’s federal measure that the Tea Party despises.

“Mitt Romney is a poser,” said Andrew Hemingway, chairman of the New Hampshire Liberty Caucus, which helped coordinate an anti-Romney rally in Concord. “He’s a fraud trying to stand on a Tea Party stage.”

Romney has stepped up his courtship in recent weeks. At a veterans’ hall in Berlin, N.H., a voter asked how Romney would handle the “right-wing fringe” that, the questioner said, had taken over the GOP.

Romney’s answer: “I’ll take a bit of exception with that. … You’re not going to see me distance myself from those who believe in small government, because I believe in it too.”

Other candidates are also rushing to defend the Tea Party.

Rick Santorum, a former Pennsylvania senator, recently ridiculed a Democratic congresswoman who said the Tea Party should “go straight to hell.” Americans on the political left “absolutely despise the founding principles of this country,” he said.

When Democrats accused the Tea Party of holding the GOP hostage during the debt debate, Bachmann sent out a fundraising letter that said, “Only in the bizarro world of Washington is fiscal responsibility sometimes defined as terrorism.”

The Tea Party is felt in other ways.

At an Iowa debate in August, every candidate on stage signaled opposition to a debt-reduction deal if it included as much as $1 in tax increases for every $10 in spending cuts. Tea Party groups oppose tax increases.

The early exit of former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty from the race can be attributed in part to his failure to earn credibility with the Tea Party movement. Bachmann’s entire candidacy could, perhaps, be attributed to encouragement she received from Tea Party backers; she’s courted them since the party’s founding.

Each time a candidate is linked to the movement, the Democratic National Committee gleefully works to brand the candidate, and the Republican Party in general, as outside the mainstream.

Tea Party activists are emboldened after helping get 30 like-minded House members elected last fall. Their victories changed the direction of Congress so much that demands from Tea Party-aligned lawmakers nearly halted government during this summer’s debt debate.

Aside from the presidential race, Tea Party leaders have no less than 100 congressional primaries in their sights as they look to expand their influence on Capitol Hill.

Whatever happens, the party is leaving a stamp on the presidential race, and Democrats hope it will last.