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Saturday, December 3, 2016

According to the latest polls, Representative Ed Markey (D-MA) is now the overwhelming favorite to win Massachusetts’ June 25 special election for U.S. Senate.

A Public Policy Polling survey released Thursday finds Markey leading his Republican opponent, Gabriel Gomez, by a 47 to 39 percent margin, with 14 percent undecided. Markey’s 8 percent lead is up from PPP’s previous poll of the race, which found Markey leading Gomez by just four points.

The poll suggests that Massachusetts’ Democratic lean may be too strong for Gomez to overcome. Although Gomez is dominating Markey 71 to 15 percent among Republicans and running even with Markey at 40 to 41 percent among independents, Markey’s 70 to 20 percent advantage among Democrats puts him comfortably ahead.

A University of Massachusetts Amherst poll released Friday contains similar bad news for Gomez. That poll has Markey leading Gomez 51 to 40 percent among likely voters, with just 6 percent undecided. As in the PPP poll, the UMass poll finds Gomez performing very well among independents — leading Markey 50 to 33 percent — and Markey’s 87 percent margin of the Democratic vote has left him up double digits with just over two weeks until election day.

“Time is against Gomez,” said Raymond La Raja, associate director of the UMass poll. “Without a major gaffe by Markey soon, it is becoming very difficult to see a path to victory for Gomez.”

The full results of the PPP poll can be seen here, and the full results of the UMass poll can be seen here.

AP Photo/File

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