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Saturday, September 24, 2016

Who’s Up Today? The President’s Lead Grows

And the polls jump…

Poll Call Change Who’s Up
Real Clear Politics
Average
Obama
+.4
Obama
+3.9%
Talking Points Memo PollTracker Obama
+2.7
Obama
+2.6%
HuffingtonPost
Pollster
Obama
+1.1
Obama
+1.3
New York Times
FiveThirtyEight
Obama
+.2
Obama
+2.7
Memo 
Average
 Obama
+1.1 
Obama
+2.6

Today is the biggest jump in the polls we’ve seen in weeks. The President now leads in all the major indexes we follow, though he’s tied in the conservative-leaning Rasmussen Report, down two percentage points in three days. The bump comes primarily from the Reuters/Ipos poll (PDF) which shows the President’s lead increasing to seven percent. You may have heard that a poll in Colorado shows Romney up by five percent, but this follow a tie and poll showing the President up by six percent. The aggregate shows the President up by 1.2 percent. This single state could be very hard to poll because marijuana legalization is on the ballot, which will attract a lot of young voters who are difficult to survey before Election Day.

McDonalds Index

McDonalds reported the worst same store numbers in nine years. They say this is a sign the economy is weakening. The optimist in me says the opposite could be true.

Will Romney’s VP mean much?

The best case scenario for Romney, according to Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight, is that his running mate could boost him a whole percentage point in either Ohio or Virginia. In a tight race, that could make all the difference. The smart money is still on former Ohio Representative and Bush budget director Rob Portman.

The welfare attack will continue

Mitt Romney’s campaign is on offense for the first time in weeks with an attack on the waivers President Obama granted to two Republican governors for welfare reform. The media is pushing back on the claim, as is Bill Clinton, who signed the  original reforms into law. But the class/racial resentment the issue stirs may be an effective salvo to counter the Obama Administration’s claims that Romney wants to raise taxes on the middle class. Romney is even bringing out Newt Gingrich, who was the Speaker of the House when the bill became law. Expect these attacks to continue despite being interrupted today by a Romney’s spokeswoman invoking the word RomneyCare, a mistake that will not likely be repeated.

Verdict: With the polls going in his direction and the Romney team unable to stay on message, the President wins the day.

  • Romney’s selection of a running mate will dominate the news for a week or so, but it will have little bearing on the outcome of the election. This election has more to do with the preservation of social programs and the way of life we are accustomed to or the migration to a privatized system or one managed by vouchers than the election of a person (s).

    • I agree. Still, some candidates are better than others. One name I hardly ever hear is Mitch Daniels, yet he might bring a calm maturity to the ticket worth a couple points, especially in Ohio, Michigan, and Illinois.

      • DownriverDem

        I live in Michigan. Mitt told us all to go to hell. I’m not sure you realize that Obama saved our state as well as Ohio and any other auto state. Mitt was born here and we consider him a traitor. His father must be spinning in his grave.

  • These polls don’t reflect reality. People under duress don’t poll properly. This election will be about one issue– The Economy. Rightly or wrongly, President Obama is going to take the rap for the economy. He is not going to be able to win by making the case he’s prevented things from getting worse, however true that might be. People want to see improvement. Like Hoover and Carter, Obama is going to be a victim of the times. Even states like California can’t be totally counted on. The only way the president will be able to pull this off, will be to paint Mr. Romney as a scary guy. Most people could care less about his tax returns or secret bank accounts. Other aspects of his life will need to be explored and revealed. Americans know things haven’t gotten worse. To convince them to keep the president at the helm, they have to be convinced Romney will sail us into disaster….

    • DownriverDem

      Explain how the polls show that folks don’t blame Obama for the economy? They blame W and the repubs.

      Romney will destroy Social Security and Medicare. What is it you don’t get?

    • bonedokter

      Romney is a liar who thinks voters don’t pay attention. I lived in MA when he ran for the Senate seat. During debates he flat out lied. His lies were detailed after the debate. The Presidentail debate will be embarrassing for Republicans. He has no CORE beliefs. The fact that he’s not releasing his taxes records is screaming you won’t like how I behave when no one’s looking! If he wants privacy, don’t run for President!

    • I would not be surprised if a lot of people react exactly the way you suggested. Unfortunately, many voters reach a decision based on what they hear from the talking heads on TV and radio, political ads, and perceptions rather than a careful analysis of facts or a review of a candidate’s platform. It is easy to blame the incumbent for our economic malaise, what is not so easy is to do a little research and reach a conclusion based on facts. I can not believe people already forgot President Bush’s warning in 2008 when he stated that the U.S. economy was on the verge of collapse, his bank bailout to save investment banks, the fact that the unemployment rate on Inauguration day was 7.8% and climbing, and that the economy was shedding 600,000 jobs a month when President Obama took office. Blaming Obama for not putting in place policies to overcome the devastating effects of 8 years of irresponsible Republican policies may have some validity, but only until you realize that progress has been impaired by the obstructionism that has been an integral part of Mitch McConnell’s plan to ensure President Obama is a one term president. As amazing as it may seem, there are bound to be voters naive enough to reward those who have abrogated their duties, and those whose policies and greed led to the economic problems we are still trying to overcome.
      The problem with a Republican administration and Congress, in my opinion, has little to do with Romney, he is bound to be a figure head if elected, the problem is the agenda the GOP plans to pursue which ranges from the privatization of SS and dismantling of MEDICARE to the implementation of a tax system that benefits the super rich at the expense of the middle class.

  • DownriverDem

    Romney will destroy Social Security and Medicare. He supports the Paul Ryan budget plan that will do just that. What else do folks need to know? Repubs don’t give a damn. Non-rich repubs are so consumed with hate that they are blind to the real issues.

  • ayayaboy

    Romney’s sharky and vampire-economic philosphies represent an evil wish list of the rich against average Americans. Everybody should post RomneyGirl’s musical video on Youtube, facebook and email to friends. That video clearly depicts what Romney stands for. See what Republicans are telling Romney below:
    ♥ Conservative commentator Bill Kristol: “He should release the tax returns tomorrow. This is crazy… you’ve got to release 6, 8, 10 years of back tax returns. Take the hit for a day or two.”

    ♥ Washington Post columnist George Will: “The costs of not releasing the returns are clear, therefore he must have calculated that there are higher costs in releasing them.”

    ♥ Alabama Governor Robert Bentley: “If you have things to hide, then maybe you’re doing things wrong. I think you ought to be willing to release everything to the American people.”

    ♥ Former RNC Chair Michael Steele: “If there’s nothing there, there’s no ‘there’ there, don’t create a ‘there.’ Put out as much information as you can.”

    ♥ Governor Haley Barbour: “The advice I would give Romney is: Who cares about your tax returns? Release ’em!”

    ♥ NC Rep. Walter Jones: “I think he should release his financial records and I think if he does it in July it would be a lot better than in October…”

    ♥ Former McCain adviser Ana Navarro: “He should just release the stupid taxes…”

    ♥ Conservative journalist David Frum: “Tax returns the next problem. Releasing returns under pressure: more weakness, more pain.”

    ♥ Senator Dick Lugar: “I have no idea on why he has restricted the number to this point.”

    ♥ Senator Chuck Grassley: “I don’t think he should be called on to do anything extraordinary other than what other presidential candidates have done.”