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Thursday, December 8, 2016

Who’s Up Today? The President’s Lead Grows

And the polls jump…

Poll Call Change Who’s Up
Real Clear Politics
Average
Obama
+.4
Obama
+3.9%
Talking Points Memo PollTracker Obama
+2.7
Obama
+2.6%
HuffingtonPost
Pollster
Obama
+1.1
Obama
+1.3
New York Times
FiveThirtyEight
Obama
+.2
Obama
+2.7
Memo 
Average
 Obama
+1.1 
Obama
+2.6

Today is the biggest jump in the polls we’ve seen in weeks. The President now leads in all the major indexes we follow, though he’s tied in the conservative-leaning Rasmussen Report, down two percentage points in three days. The bump comes primarily from the Reuters/Ipos poll (PDF) which shows the President’s lead increasing to seven percent. You may have heard that a poll in Colorado shows Romney up by five percent, but this follow a tie and poll showing the President up by six percent. The aggregate shows the President up by 1.2 percent. This single state could be very hard to poll because marijuana legalization is on the ballot, which will attract a lot of young voters who are difficult to survey before Election Day.

McDonalds Index

McDonalds reported the worst same store numbers in nine years. They say this is a sign the economy is weakening. The optimist in me says the opposite could be true.

Will Romney’s VP mean much?

The best case scenario for Romney, according to Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight, is that his running mate could boost him a whole percentage point in either Ohio or Virginia. In a tight race, that could make all the difference. The smart money is still on former Ohio Representative and Bush budget director Rob Portman.

The welfare attack will continue

Mitt Romney’s campaign is on offense for the first time in weeks with an attack on the waivers President Obama granted to two Republican governors for welfare reform. The media is pushing back on the claim, as is Bill Clinton, who signed the  original reforms into law. But the class/racial resentment the issue stirs may be an effective salvo to counter the Obama Administration’s claims that Romney wants to raise taxes on the middle class. Romney is even bringing out Newt Gingrich, who was the Speaker of the House when the bill became law. Expect these attacks to continue despite being interrupted today by a Romney’s spokeswoman invoking the word RomneyCare, a mistake that will not likely be repeated.

Verdict: With the polls going in his direction and the Romney team unable to stay on message, the President wins the day.

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